河南省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情传播动力学研究

张延炀; 李军; 杨凯朝; 王三凤; 赵东阳; 肖占沛; 史鲁斌; 姬艳芳; 陈帅印

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.06.008

河南省新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情传播动力学研究

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.06.008

1.
450016 郑州, 河南省疾病预防控制中心免疫预防规划所
2.
454100 焦作, 焦作市疾病预防控制中心免疫规划所
3.
450016 郑州, 河南省疾病预防控制中心
4.
450001 郑州, 郑州大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室

基金项目: 新型冠状病毒感染肺炎流行病学规律及防控措施研究(201100310800)

详细信息

通讯作者:
陈帅印, E-mail:sychen@zzu.edu.cn

中图分类号: R181
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-04-02
- 修回日期: 2020-04-29
- 刊出日期: 2020-06-10

Transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease 2019 in Henan province

1.
Immunization Planning Institute, Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhengzhou 450016, China
2.
Immunization Planning Institute, Jiaozno city Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jiaozuo 454100, China
3.
Henan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhengzhou 450016, China
4.
Department of epidemiology, College of public health, Zhengzhou university, Zhengzhou 450001, China

Funds: Study on the Epidemiology Characteristics and Control Measures of Coronavirus Disease 2019(201100310800)

More Information

Corresponding author: CHEN Shuai-yin, E-mail:sychen@zzu.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 目的通过构建河南省新型冠状病毒肺炎(coronavirus disease 2019, COVID-19)早期传播动力学模型, 研究疫情流行趋势, 为疫情防控提供依据。方法收集河南省2019年1月21日至2020年2月23日河南省卫生健康委员会公布的疫情数据和河南省统计年鉴中的人口数据, 对COVID-19进行描述性流行病学分析, 采用MATLAB 7.0软件构建传播动力学SEIR模型, 分析河南省COVID-19流行趋势。结果截至2020年2月23日河南省累计报告COVID-19确诊病例1 271例, 报告发病率约为1.16/10万; 报告病例集中分布在信阳市、南阳市、郑州市和驻马店市。SEIR模型拟合显示, 河南省COVID-19的基础再生指数R₀平均约为2.41, 防控措施干预使得峰值降低55%, 高峰推迟3天。结论河南省COVID-19疫情前期增长较快, 采取防控措施后, 有效再生数逐渐降低, 疫情逐步得到控制。
- 新型冠状病毒肺炎 /
- 传播动力学模型 /
- 流行规律
Abstract: Objective To explore the epidemic trend of Coronavirus Disease 2019(COVID-19) and provide basis for prevention and control through establishing transmission dynamics model of COVID-19 in Henan province. Methods The epidemic data was collected through official website of Henan Health Commission from January 21, 2019 to February 23, 2020, the population data was obtained from Henan Province Statistical Yearbook. The descriptive epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 were analyzed by Excel 2007 and MapInfo7.0. The transmission dynamics model of COVID-19 was established by MATLAB 7.0. Results The accumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 had reached 1271 as of February 23, 2020 in Henan Province, and the reported incidence was about 1.16 per 100 000. Confirmed cases were mainly from Xinyang, Nanyang, Zhengzhou and Zhumadian. According to SEIR model, the average of Basic Reproduction Number(R ₀) was about 2.41. The peak value of COVID-19 epidemic was reduced by 55%, the appearance time of peak value was delayed by 3 days after Henan Province's a series of prevention and control measures. Conclusion A fast spread trend was observed in the early COVID-19 epidemic of Henan Province. Through a series of prevention and control measures, the Effective Reproduction(Re) gradually decreased and the epidemic of COVID-19 was gradually under control in Henan Province.
- Coronavirus disease 2019 /
- Transmission dynamics model /
- Epidemiological chara-cteristics

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图 1 河南省不同地区COVID-19报告发病率地区分布情况

Figure 1. The reported incidence of COVID -19 in different regions of Henan province

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图 2 河南省COVID-19疫情报告趋势

Figure 2. The reported epidemic trend of COVID-19 in Henan province

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图 3 河南省COVID-19早期传播动力学模型

Figure 3. The early dynamics model of COVID-19 in Henan province

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图 4 河南省COVID-19干预措施下传播动力学模型

Figure 4. The dynamics model of COVID - 19 after intervention in Henan province

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图 5 再生数的变化趋势

Figure 5. The trend of Reproduction Number in Henan province

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