南京市PM<sub>10</sub>短期暴露与肺癌死亡风险相关性

卫斐然; 熊丽林; 洪忻; 李伟; 陈宝安

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.07.011

南京市PM₁₀短期暴露与肺癌死亡风险相关性

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.07.011

卫斐然¹,
熊丽林²,
洪忻³,
李伟⁴,
陈宝安^1, ,

1.
210009 南京, 东南大学医学院附属中大医院血液科
2.
210003 南京, 南京市疾病预防控制中心环境卫生科
3.
210003 南京, 南京市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染病防制科
4.
210009 南京, 东南大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系

基金项目:

江苏省医学重点项目 ZDXKB2016020

东南大学项目 2018yy-jccx003

江苏省社会发展项目 BE2018711

南京市卫生健康委员会医学科技发展基金 ZKX16068

南京市卫生健康委员会医学科技发展基金 ZKX18049

详细信息

通讯作者:
陈宝安, E-mail:cba8888@hotmail.com

中图分类号: R734.2;R181.2
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-05-08
- 修回日期: 2020-06-05
- 刊出日期: 2020-07-10

The correlation between PM₁₀ and lung cancer death risk in Nanjing City

1.
Department of Hematology and Oncology, Zhongda Hospital, School of Medicine, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, China
2.
Department of Environmental Health, Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210003, China
3.
Department of Non-communicable Disease Prevention, Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210003, China
4.
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing 210009, China

Funds:

The Key Medical Projects of Jiangsu Province ZDXKB2016020

the Southeast University Projects 2018yy-jccx003

Jiangsu Social Development project BE2018711

The Medical Science and Technology Development Foundation, Nanjing Department of Health ZKX16068

The Medical Science and Technology Development Foundation, Nanjing Department of Health ZKX18049

More Information

Corresponding author: CHEN Bao-an, E-mail:cba8888@hotmail.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析南京市可吸入颗粒物（particle matter with diameter less 10 μm，PM₁₀）与肺癌死亡风险之间滞后相关性。方法收集南京市2013―2017年每日因肺癌死亡人数、气象及空气污染数据，利用广义相加模型（generalized additive model，GAM）及滞后非线性模型（distributed lag non-linear models，DLNM）探讨短期暴露PM₁₀对每日肺癌死亡率的影响。结果 2013―2017年南京市因肺癌死亡14 693人，平均每日因肺癌死亡8.05人，男性占72.20%，高于女性（27.80%）；PM₁₀日均浓度为103.91 μg/m³，呈现季节性；2013―2017年PM₁₀日均浓度呈逐年下降的趋势（χ²=120.16，P < 0.05）；短期暴露PM₁₀当日对肺癌死亡影响最大，滞后4 d天后相对危险度（relative risk，RR）效应消失，随着PM₁₀浓度的增加肺癌死亡风险增加；在单日滞后效应中，PM₁₀日均浓度每增加10 μg/m³，在滞后第3 d（lag3）对肺癌死亡危险影响最大，超额危险度（excess risk，ER）为1.004 3（95% CI：1.001 0~1.007 7）；PM₁₀暴露的滞后1~7天的累积效应，在滞后累积0~6天（lag0~6）对肺癌死亡危险影响最大，ER为1.008 0（95%CI：1.002 5~1.013 5）；不同季节、不同性别、不同年龄段PM₁₀日均浓度每增加10 μg/m³对肺癌死亡危险的单日效应及多日累积效应不同。结论南京市PM₁₀日均浓度与肺癌死亡存在滞后相关性，PM₁₀浓度越高肺癌死亡风险越大。
- PM₁₀ /
- 肺癌死亡 /
- 广义相加模型
Abstract: Objective To explore the lag-correlation between Particulate matter with particle size below 10 mic(PM₁₀) and the risk of lung cancer death in Nanjing, China. Methods We collected daily mortality and air pollution data of Nanjing from 2013 to 2017. Generalized additive model (GAM) and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM) were used to estimate the effects of short-term exposure to PM₁₀ on daily lung cancer mortality. Results A total of 14 693 deaths from lung cancer in Nanjing from 2013 to 2017, with the average daily death from lung cancer was 8.05. The proportion of men (72.20%) was higher than that of women (27.80%); The daily average PM₁₀ concentration was 103.91 μg/m³, with obvious seasonality trend, and the daily average PM₁₀ concentration exhibited a declining trend from 2013 to 2017 (χ²=120.16, P < 0.05); Short-term exposure to PM₁₀ had the highest risk of mortality on the day (lag0), and the effect disappeared after lag4; with the increaseed of PM₁₀ concentration, the risk of death increased; With each 10 μg/m³ increaseed in PM₁₀ concentration, the maximum excess risk of death at lag 3 day was 1.004 3 (1.001 0-1.007 7) for the single-day effect, the maximum excess risk of death at lag 0-6 was 1.008 0 (1.002 5-1.013 5) for the multiple-day cumulative effect of PM₁₀ exposure. The single-day effect and multi-day cumulative effect on the risk of lung cancer death among different seasons, different genders and different age groups were different, with each 10 μg/m³ increaseed in PM₁₀ concentration. Conclusions There was a positive lag-association between PM₁₀ and daily lung cancer mortality in Nanjing, with the concentrations of PM₁₀ increased, the lung cancer death risk got higher.
- PM₁₀ /
- Generalized additive model /
- Lung cancer mortality

HTML全文

图 1 2013―2017南京市PM₁₀日均浓度时序分布

Figure 1. Time series distribution of PM₁₀ daily concentration in Nanjing from 2013 to 2017

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 南京市2013―2017年PM₁₀对肺癌死亡的暴露-滞后效应

Figure 2. The exposure-lag-response relationship between PM₁₀ and lung cancer mortality in Nanjing from 2013 to 2017

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 南京市2013―2017年PM₁₀对肺癌死亡的总体累积效应

Figure 3. Overall cumulative effect of PM₁₀ on lung cancer mortality in Nanjing from 2013 to 2017

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 南京市2013―2017年PM₁₀每增加10μg/m³对肺癌死亡风险的影响

Figure 4. The excess risk of a 10 μg/m³ increase of PM₁₀ on lung cancer mortality in Nanjing from 2013 to 2017

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 南京市2013―2017年不同季节PM₁₀每增加10 μg/m³对肺癌死亡风险的影响

Figure 5. The excess risk of a 10 μg/m³ increase of PM₁₀ on lung cancer mortality among different season groups in Nanjing from 2013 to 2017

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 6 南京市2013―2017年PM₁₀每增加10 μg/m³对不同性别肺癌死亡风险的影响

Figure 6. The excess risk of a 10 μg/m³ increase of PM₁₀ on lung cancer mortality among different genders in Nanjing from 2013 to 2017

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 7 南京市2013―2017年PM₁₀每增加10μg/m³对不同年龄段肺癌死亡风险的影响

Figure 7. The excess risk of a 10 μg/m³ increase of PM₁₀ on lung cancer mortality among different age groups in Nanjing from 2013 to 2017

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2013―2017年南京因肺癌死亡人口学特征

Table 1. Demographic characteristics of lung cancer deaths in Nanjing from 2013 to 2017

分类	死亡人数(人)	构成比(%)
年龄(岁)
＜60	2 187	14.88
≥60	12 506	85.12
性别
男	10 608	72.20
女	4 085	27.80
年份
2013	2 815	19.16
2014	2 820	19.19
2015	2 928	19.93
2016	2 952	20.09
2017	3 178	21.63
文化程度
大专及以上	1 078	7.34
高中/中专	1 869	12.72
初中及以下	11 459	77.99
不清楚	287	1.95
职业
专业技术人员	414	2.82
职员	572	3.89
农民	5 894	40.11
工人	1 657	11.28
自主职业	3 930	26.75
其他	2 226	15.15
合计	14 693	100.00

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2013-2017年南京市PM₁₀均值及达标天数

Table 2. Average concentration and days of compliance for PM₁₀ in Nanjing from 2013 to 2017

年份	PM₁₀均值	PM₁₀达标天数(%)
2013	136.75±72.19	14(3.84)
2014	121.41±62.80	31(8.49)
2015	96.16±50.65	58(15.89)
2016	86.60±45.82	81(22.13)
2017	78.65±45.21	111(30.41)
F/χ²值	61.11	120.16
P值	< 0.001	< 0.001

下载: 导出CSV

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