Correlation analysis of regional distribution in COVID-19 imported cases from abroad in China
CHEN Chun and KANG Yan contributed equally to this article
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摘要:
目的 对我国新型冠状病毒肺炎（coronavirus disease 2019，COVID-19）境外输入性病例地区分布和全球病例分布进行关联性分析，为精准防控提供政策依据。 方法 收集中国COVID-19境外输入性病例和全球其他国家地区病例数据，通过描述性流行病学和Spearman相关分析方法分析境外输入性病例分布及其与全球病例分布的关联性。 结果 截至4月9日，中国共报告境外输入病例995例，主要分布在上海（20.20%）、广东（17.59%）、北京（17.19%）和黑龙江（8.74%）；主要输入国为英国（27.74%）、美国（14.87%）、俄罗斯（12.16%）和西班牙（8.74%）。使用世界卫生组织各成员国（及地区）区域划分进行地区关联性Spearman相关分析，除西太平洋和东南亚区域外，其他4个区域均有统计学意义（均有P < 0.05）。 结论 中国输入病例与输入国本土病例间总体相关；部分卫生体系和资源相对薄弱的国家地区疫情存在低估；中国在输入性疫情防控上，应特别关注卫生体系和资源较差的非洲、东南亚、南美等国家地区，各省可依据输入病例分布情况开展风险评估，制定和实施精准防控和分类管理措施。 Abstract:Objective This study aimed to analyze the relation of regional distributions between coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) imported cases and global cases and help policy making for accurate prevention. Objective Regional data of global cases and imported cases from other countries or districts to China were collected. Descriptive epidemiology and Spearman correlation analysis were used in statistical analysis. Results Up to April 9th, the number of 995 COVID-19 imported cases from abroad were reported, most in Shanghai (20.20%), Guangdong (17.59%), Beijing (17.19%) and Heilongjiang (8.74%).The imported cases were mainly from the United Kingdom (27.74%), the United States (14.87%), Russia (12.16%), Spain (8.74%), respectively.Spearman correlation analysis were performed between cases in 6 regions of WHO member countries (and regions) and imported cases from these regions, 4 regionsincluding the regions of European, Americas, Eastern Mediterranean and African were showed statistical significances(all P < 0.05). Conclusions Our study showed an overall correlation between the COVID-19 imported cases to China and the cases in these countries. Epidemic of COVID-19 might be underestimated in some countries and regions with poor health systems and resources. Therefore, we should pay more special attentions to backward countries and regions in Africa, Southeast Asia and South America to reduce the number of imported cases. Riska ssessment of imported epidemic also need to be conducted according to regional distribution in each province to prevent accurately and manage precisely. -
Key words:
- COVID-19 /
- Imported cases from abroad /
- Correlation analysis
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图 1 中国境外输入病例输出区域、国家和输入省份分布热点图(2020年4月9日)
Figure 1. Heat map of COVID-19 cases distribution between imported provinces and exportied regions (April 9th, 2020)
图 2 输入国本土病例和中国境外输入病例分布散点及其趋势线分布图(2020年4月9日)
Figure 2. Scatter plot and trend distribution of local cases and cases that exported to China indifferent regions (April 9th, 2020)
表 1 中国境外输入病例输出区域和输入省份分布(2020年4月9日)
Table 1. COVID-19 cases distribution between exported regions and imported provinces (April 9th, 2020)
输入区域 欧洲区域 美洲区域 东地中海区域 西太平洋地区(除中国外) 非洲区域 东南亚区域 合计 上海 141 43 7 5 1 4 201 广东 77 37 9 23 23 6 175 北京 144 21 4 0 0 2 171 黑龙江 85 2 0 0 0 0 87 福建 12 15 2 24 2 0 55 浙江 41 5 0 0 2 0 48 天津 32 13 0 1 0 0 46 甘肃 1 1 42 1 0 1 46 内蒙古 15 0 0 0 0 0 15 山西 30 0 0 0 0 0 30 山东 16 4 2 0 0 0 22 四川 12 6 1 1 0 1 21 江苏 13 5 1 0 0 1 20 辽宁 6 10 1 1 0 0 18 陕西 6 2 0 2 0 1 11 云南 6 3 0 0 0 1 10 河北 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 吉林 2 3 0 0 0 0 5 河南 1 0 1 0 1 0 3 重庆 1 1 0 1 0 0 3 广西 2 0 0 0 0 0 2 江西 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 宁夏 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 贵州 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 湖南 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 合计 645 174 71 59 29 17 995 
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表 2 输出国本土病例和中国境外输入病例分布(2020年4月9日)
Table 2. Distribution of local cases andcases that exported to China in different regions (April 9th, 2020)
分区 本土病例数(例) 占除中国外总病例百分比(%) 输入中国病例数(例) 占总输入病例百分比(%) 欧洲区域 720 219 53.22 645 64.82 美洲区域 417 416 30.84 174 17.49 东地中海区域 81 993 6.06 71 7.14 西太平洋地区(除中国外) 114 667 8.47 59 5.93 非洲区域 7 647 0.57 29 2.91 东南亚区域 10 707 0.79 17 1.71
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表 3 中国境外输入病例输出区域和输入省份分布(2020年4月9日)
Table 3. COVID-19 cases distribution between exported regions and imported provinces (April 9th, 2020)
分区 欧洲区域 美洲区域 东地中海区域 西太平洋地区(除中国外) 非洲区域 东南亚区域 Spearman相关分析 0.728a 0.495a 0.727a 0.450 0.359b 0.574 P值 < 0.001 < 0.001 < 0.001 0.061 0.002 0.083 注：a表示P < 0.001, b表示P < 0.05。
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