江西省2013—2018年肾综合征出血热空间自相关分析

宋宁娟; 谢昀; 丁晟; 刘晓青; 潘欢弘; 袁辉

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.08.003

江西省2013—2018年肾综合征出血热空间自相关分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.08.003

宋宁娟^{1, 2},
谢昀²,
丁晟²,
刘晓青²,
潘欢弘²,
袁辉^2, ,

1.
330006 南昌, 南昌大学公共卫生学院江西省预防医学重点实验室
2.
330029 南昌, 江西省疾病预防控制中心传染病防制所

基金项目:

江西省研究生创新专项资金项目 YC2018-S114

详细信息

通讯作者:
袁辉, E-mail: jxcdcyuanhui@126.com

中图分类号: R512.8
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-07-12
- 修回日期: 2020-04-26
- 刊出日期: 2020-08-10

Analysis of spatial autocorrelation of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Jiangxi Province from 2013 to 2018

1.
Jiangxi Provincical Key Laboratory of Preventive Medicine, School of Public Health, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, China
2.
the Institute of Infectious Diseases Prevention and Control, Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang 330029, China

Funds:

Jiangxi Province Graduate Student Innovation Special Fund Project YC2018-S114

More Information

Corresponding author: YUAN Hui, E-mail: jxcdcyuanhui@126.com

摘要

摘要: 目的对江西省2013-2018年肾综合征出血热（hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome，HFRS）进行空间自相关分析，探索其空间分布特征。方法利用Excel 2003软件和SPSS 23.0软件对HFRS发病数据进行搜集整理，运用ArcGIS 10.2软件制作省级县区矢量地图，采用空间自相关统计方法对HFRS监测数据在县区级尺度上进行全局及局部聚集性分析。结果 2013-2018年江西省累计报告HFRS 3 861例，年均发病率为1.41/10万；60岁以上人群发病率最高，为2.22/10万；全局空间自相关分析发现2013-2018年Moran's I系数在0.233~0.343之间（均有Moran's I>0，均有P < 0.05）；局部空间自相关分析显示HFRS发病率呈现出“高-高”、“低-高”、“低-低”三种空间聚集性模式，且均有统计学意义（均有P≤0.05），其中“高-高”聚集区主要集中在宜春市中东部，与高发病率地区描述性分析一致；吉安市、赣州市则表现为“低-低”聚集。结论江西省HFRS发病率整体呈现空间聚集性，“高-高”聚集区主要集中在宜春市的宜丰县、高安市、上高县和奉新县，需重点防控。
- 肾综合征出血热 /
- 流行特征 /
- Moran's I指数 /
- 空间自相关
Abstract: Objective Spatial autocorrelation analysis of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Jiangxi Province from 2013 to 2018 was carried out to explore its spatial distribution characteristics. Methods Excel 2003 and SPSS 23.0 software were used to collect and sort out the data of HFRS, using ArcGIS 10.2 software to make the vector map of provincial county and district, and using spatial autocorrelation statistical method to analyse the global and local aggregation of HFRS monitoring data at county-level scale. Results From 2013 to 2018, there were 3 861 HFRS cases, and the incidence rate was 1.41/100 000.The incidence rate in the elderly aged 60 and above was 2.22 /100 000, which was the highest one among all groups. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the Moran's I coefficients from 2013 to 2018 were in 0.233-0.343 (all Moran's I>0, all P < 0.05). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis suggested that the incidence rate of HFRS presented three spatial aggregation patterns: "high-high", "low-high", "low-low", all the distribution patterns were statistically significant (all P ≤0.05). The "high-high" clustering areas were mainly concentrated in the east-central of Yichun City, which was consistent with descriptive analysis of the high incidence area. Counties or districts that located in Jian City and Ganzhou City presented the "low-low" relation. Conclusions The incidence rate of HFRS in Jiangxi Province appeared a significant spatial aggregation distribution. Yifeng County, Gaoan County, Shanggao County and Fengxin County in Yichun City were "high-high" clustering areas, indicating that it is necessary to strengthen the work in prevention and control.
- Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome /
- Descriptive epidemiology /
- Moran's I coefficient /
- Spatial autocorrelation

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图 1 2013-2018年江西省HFRS分年龄组报告发病数

Figure 1. Number of HFRS reported by age group in Jiangxi Province 2013 to 2018

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2013-2018年江西省各县区HFRS发病率的LISA聚类图

Figure 2. The LISA cluster map of incidence of HFRS in counties and districts of Jiangxi Province from 2013 to 2018

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2013-2018年江西省HFRS发病率全局空间自相关分析Table

Table 1. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis of HFRS incidence in Jiangxi Province from 2013 to 2018

年份	Moran's I	Z 值	P 值	空间自相关性
2013	0.270	5.262	0.003	是
2014	0.249	5.301	0.006	是
2015	0.265	5.460	0.005	是
2016	0.233	5.255	0.004	是
2017	0.343	6.496	0.001	是
2018	0.284	5.639	0.001	是

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2013—2018年江西省各县区HFRS局部空间自相关聚集模式表

Table 2. The tables of local spatial autocorrelation aggregation patterns of HFRS in countiesand districts of Jiangxi Province from 2013 to 2018

年份	聚集模式			P 值
年份	“高-高”	“低-高”	“低-低”	P 值
2013	奉新县	万载县	柴桑区	0.001
	高安市
	宜丰县	修水县	遂川县信丰县	0.010
	上高县		南康市兴国县
	渝水区	铜鼓县	泰和县万安县	0.050
			赣县区于都县
			安远县
2014	奉新县	万载县		0.001
	高安市
	上高县	修水县	信丰县安远县	0.010
	宜丰县		南康市赣县区
			于都县兴国县
			泰和县青原区
	铜鼓县		定南县会昌县	0.050
			瑞金市遂川县
			永新县吉安县
			安福县吉水县
			湘东区濂溪区
			湖口县
2015	奉新县	万载县		0.001
	高安市
	宜丰县	修水县	湖口县泰和县	0.010
	上高县		万安县南康市
			赣县区于都县
			信丰县安远县
		铜鼓县	濂溪区遂川县	0.050
		渝水区	兴国县瑞金市
			会昌县定南县
2016	奉新县	万载县		0.001
	高安市
	上高县
	宜丰县	修水县	南康市赣县区	0.010
			于都县信丰县
			安远县
		铜鼓县	泰和县遂川县	0.050
			万安县兴国县
			上犹县瑞金市
			会昌县定南县
2017	奉新县	万载县		0.001
	高安市
	上高县	修水县	南康市赣县区	0.010
	宜丰县		于都县
	安义县	铜鼓县	泰和县兴国县	0.050
	渝水区		信丰县安远县
			会昌县湖口县
			濂溪区
2018	奉新县	万载县	龙南县寻乌县	0.001
	高安市		安远县信丰县
			大余县南康市
			崇义县上犹县
	上高县		赣县区于都县	0.010
	宜丰县		会昌县遂川县
	渝水区
	分宜县	修水县	泰和县万安县	0.050
			兴国县瑞金市
			定南县

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