2009—2018年银川市流行性感冒流行特征及发病趋势预测

沙小兰; 李燕; 刘小娟; 刘兰

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.08.004

2009—2018年银川市流行性感冒流行特征及发病趋势预测

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.08.004

沙小兰¹,
李燕²,
刘小娟¹,
刘兰^1, ,

1.
750004 银川, 宁夏医科大学公共卫生与管理学院, 流行病与卫生统计学系
750011 银川, 银川市疾病预防控制中心, 传染病防控与免疫规划管理科

详细信息

通讯作者:
刘兰, E-mail:liulan-162@163.com

中图分类号: R183.3
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-12-15
- 修回日期: 2020-03-12
- 刊出日期: 2020-08-15

Analysis of epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of influenza in Yinchuan City from 2009 to 2018

1.
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health and Management, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan 750004, China
Department of Infectious Disease Control and Immunization Management, Yinchuan City Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Yinchuan 750011, China

More Information

Corresponding author: LIU Lan, E-mail:liulan-162@163.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析2009-2018年银川市流行性感冒（简称流感）的发病情况及流行病学特征，并预测发病趋势，为流感的防控提供科学依据。方法采用描述性研究的方法，描述2009-2018年银川市流感的流行病学特征，并用自回归移动平均混合模型（autoregressive integrated moving average model，ARIMA）预测2019年1月-2020年6月流感的发病趋势。结果 2009-2018年银川市流感共报告2 254例，年均发病率为11.22/10万，整体呈下降趋势（χ²_趋势=28.95，P < 0.001）。流感在秋冬季节高发，发病高峰为11月-次年1月。西夏区发病率最高（504例，18.34/10万），贺兰县最低（75例，3.59/10万）。男性发病率高于女性（11.86/10万vs10.56/10万，χ²=7.580，P < 0.001）；流感在各年龄段均有分布，主要为0~5岁年龄段（528例，23.43%）；以学生（776例，34.43%）、散居儿童（471例，20.90%）、农民（240例，10.65%）为主。ARIMA模型预测结果显示，2019年1月-2020年6月银川市流感发病率与2018年持平。结论 2009-2018年银川市流感发病率整体呈下降趋势。西夏区为流感重点防控地区，学生、散居儿童、农民为易感人群，提示应更加关注易感人群的健康，加强对高发地区及5岁以下儿童流感的监测与管理。
- 流感 /
- 发病率 /
- 流行特征 /
- 趋势预测
Abstract: Objective To analyze the incidence and epidemiological characteristics of influenza in Yinchuan City from 2009 to 2018, and predict the incidence trend, so as to provide scientific evidence for prevention and control of influenza. Methods Descriptive study was used to describe the epidemiological characteristics of influenza in Yinchuan City from 2009 to 2018, and autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA model) was used to forecast the incidence trend of influenza from January 2019 to June 2020. Results A total of 2 254 cases of influenza were reported in Yinchuan City from 2009 to 2018. The average annual incidence rate was 11.22/100 000. The incidence of influenza showed an overall downward trend (χ²_Trend=28.95, P < 0.001). Influenza occurred most frequently in autumn and winter. The peak months were from November to January of the following year. The highest incidence region was Xixia district (504 cases, 18.34/100 000), and the lowest one was He Lan county (75 cases, 3.59/100 000). The incidence of influenza was higher in men than in women (11.86/100 000 vs 10.56/100 000, χ²=7.580, P < 0.001). It was distributed in all age groups. The main age rang was 0-5 years old (528 cases, 23.43%). Most cases were students (776 cases, 34.43%), scattered children (471 cases, 20.90%) and farmers (240 cases, 10.65%). The ARIMA model showed that the incidence of influenza in Yinchuan City from January 2019 to June 2020 was the same as that in 2018. Conclusions The incidence of influenza in Yinchuan City decreased from 2009 to 2018. Xixia district was the key prevention and control area of influenza. Students, scattered children and farmers were the vulnerable groups, which suggest that we should pay more attention to the health of vulnerable groups, strengthen surveillance and management of influenza in high-risk areas and children under the age of five.
- Influenza /
- Incidence /
- Epidemiological characteristics /
- Trend prediction

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图 1 2009-2018年银川市流感发病情况

Figure 1. Cases of influenza in Yinchuan City from 2009 to 2018

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2009-2018年银川市流感发病率变化趋势

Figure 2. Incidence trend of influenza in Yinchuan City from 2009 to 2018

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2009-2018年银川市流感发病季节分布

Figure 3. Seasonal distribution of influenza in Yinchuan City from 2009 to 2018

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 2019年1月-2020年6月银川市流感发病趋势预测

Figure 4. Trend prediction of influenza in Yinchuan City from January 2019 to June 2020

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2009-2018年银川市流感发病率(/10万)

Table 1. Incidence of influenza in Yinchuan City from 2009 to 2018 (/ 100 000)

时间(年)	银川市		兴庆区		金凤区		西夏区		永宁县		贺兰县		灵武市
时间(年)	发病数	发病率	发病数	发病率	发病数	发病率	发病数	发病率	发病数	发病率	发病数	发病率	发病数	发病率
2009	547	34.78	136	32.28	158	59.38	54	28.65	151	70.43	17	8.59	31	10.89
2010	56	3.53	9	1.87	5	2.12	6	3.66	24	11.07	0	0.00	12	4.16
2011	76	3.81	15	2.21	7	2.13	5	1.77	22	10.08	2	0.90	25	9.55
2012	156	7.70	26	3.82	51	15.49	15	5.31	18	8.25	4	1.79	42	15.67
2013	223	10.73	93	13.14	36	10.48	43	14.59	15	6.59	5	2.15	31	11.36
2014	265	12.52	103	14.30	53	15.15	51	16.99	6	2.59	8	3.38	44	15.83
2015	218	10.18	56	7.69	58	16.41	86	28.35	5	2.13	7	2.92	6	2.14
2016	168	7.76	89	12.08	24	6.71	34	11.08	6	2.53	5	2.06	10	3.52
2017	219	10.00	66	8.85	76	21.00	52	16.74	5	2.08	8	3.26	12	4.17
2018	326	14.65	72	9.51	36	9.79	158	50.08	25	10.25	19	7.63	16	5.48
合计	2 254	11.22	665	9.99	504	15.30	504	18.34	277	12.13	75	3.59	229	8.18

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2009-2018年银川市流感发病情况的年龄、性别分布(%)

Table 2. Age and gender distribution of influenza in Yinchuan City from 2009 to 2018 (%)

年龄分组 (岁)	男		女		合计
年龄分组 (岁)	发病数	构成比(%)	发病数	构成比(%)	发病数	构成比(%)
0~	287	23.74	241	23.06	528	23.43
5~	232	19.19	211	20.19	443	19.65
10~	273	22.58	195	18.66	468	20.76
20~	143	11.83	137	13.11	280	12.42
30~	75	6.20	90	8.61	165	7.32
40~	63	5.21	59	5.65	122	5.41
50~	55	4.55	49	4.69	104	4.61
≥60	81	6.70	63	6.03	144	6.39
合计	1 209	100.00	1 045	100.00	2 254	100.00

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 银川市2018年7月-2018年12月流感发病率预测值(/10万)

Table 3. The predicted incidence of influenza in Yinchuan City from July 2018 to December 2018 (/ 100 000)

时间(年-月)	实际值	预测值(95% CI)	误差
2018-07	0.40	0.47 (-1.84~2.78)	-0.07
2018-08	0.31	0.61 (-2.51~3.72)	-0.29
2018-09	0.40	0.65 (-2.56~3.86)	-0.24
2018-10	0.63	0.64 (-2.58~3.87)	-0.01
2018-11	0.54	1.67 (-1.56~4.89)	-1.13
2018-12	1.66	2.90 (-0.33~6.12)	-1.23

下载: 导出CSV

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