2010—2019年广州市肺结核流行特征及时空聚集性

胡文穗; 刘伟; 侯建荣; 董智强; 刘远

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.09.009

2010—2019年广州市肺结核流行特征及时空聚集性

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.09.009

510440 广州, 广州市疾病预防控制中心业务管理部

基金项目:

广州市科技计划项目 201904010156

详细信息

通讯作者:
刘远, E-mail:736174712@qq.com

中图分类号: R181.1
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-01-02
- 修回日期: 2020-04-02
- 刊出日期: 2020-09-10

Epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering analysis of tuberculosis in Guangzhou from 2010 to 2019

Operations Management Department, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 510440, China

Funds:

Guangzhou Science and Technology Program Project 201904010156

More Information

Corresponding author: UU Yuan,E-mail:736174712@qq.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析2010-2019年广州市肺结核流行特征及时空聚集性，为制定精准防控措施提供参考依据。方法收集2010-2019广州市肺结核发病数据，并以街镇为尺度分析肺结核发病的空间聚集性，同时采用时空扫描统计分析时空聚集性。结果 2010-2019年广州市共报告肺结核136 341例，年均发病率为103.48/10万，总体呈下降趋势（χ²=712.46，P < 0.001）。3~5月为发病高峰，69.59%的肺结核报告病例为男性。肺结核报告发病率全局空间自相关Moran's I介于0.088 3~0.286 0之间（均有P < 0.05），高-高聚集区主要集中在广州市南部南沙区和西北部花都区部分街镇。时空扫描统计结果探测到2个高报告发病率聚集区和1个低报告发病率聚集区，最大可能的高报告发病率聚集区覆盖花都区的赤坭镇、炭步镇等5个街镇，低发病率主要聚集在越秀区、海珠区等中心城区。结论 2010-2019年广州市肺结核报告率总体呈下降趋势，存在时空聚集性，花都区和南沙区部分街镇应作为防控重点。
- 肺结核 /
- 流性特征 /
- 时空分布
Abstract: Objective To study the epidemiological characteristics and temporal-spatial clustering of tuberculosis in Guangzhou from 2010 to 2019, and to provide evidence for developing precise prevention and control measures. Methods The data of tuberculosis incidence was collected and described in Guangzhou from 2010 to 2019. Spatial and spatiotemporal clustering of tuberculosis incidence was analyzed in the township level. Results A total of 136 341 tuberculosis cases were reported in Guangzhou from 2010 to 2019. The average annual incidence was 103.48/100 000. The overall incidence of tuberculosis showed a downward trend form 2010 to 2019 (χ²=712.46, P < 0.001). The peak time of incidence was from March to May, and 69.59% of the reported cases were male. The annual global Moran's I of reported tuberculosis incidence ranged from 0.088 3 to 0.286 0 (all P < 0.05). The high-high area was mainly concentrated in some towns including Nansha and Huadu District located in south and northwest of Guangzhou. Two high-reported and one low-reported incidence clusters were identified by spatiotemporal scanning statistic. 5 towns including Chini and Tanbu in Huadu District was the cluster area of most highest incidence. The lowest incidence cluster areas were mainly concentrated in central urban areas such as Yuexiu and Haizhu District. Conclusion The tuberculosis incidence showed a trend of generally decreasing in Guangzhou from 2010 to 2019, and there was spatiotemporal aggregation. Some streets/towns of Huadu and Nansha District should be the keypoints of prevention and control.
- Tuberculosis /
- Epidemiological characteristics /
- Temporal-spatial distribution

HTML全文

图 1 2010—2019年广州市肺结核发病时间分布情况

Figure 1. Time distribution of pulmonary tuberculosis in Guangzhou from 2010 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2010—2019年广州市各街镇肺结核发病局部空间自相关分析

Figure 2. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis in every town of Guangzhou city from 2010 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2010—2019年广州市各街镇肺结核发病时空聚集性

Figure 3. The spatial and temporal clustering of pulmonary tuberculosis in every town in Guangzhou from 2010 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2010—2019年广州市肺结核发病情况全局空间自相关分析

Table 1. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Guangzhou from 2010 to 2019

年份	Moran’s I值	x±s	Z值	P值
2010	0.182 1	-0.004 5±0.048 2	3.873 1	< 0.001
2011	0.088 3	-0.008 5±0.048 5	1.998 0	0.029
2012	0.156 6	-0.003 7±0.048 9	3.276 9	0.003
2013	0.186 1	-0.004 3±0.047 2	4.034 4	< 0.001
2014	0.188 5	-0.007 3±0.048 3	4.053 2	< 0.001
2015	0.249 7	-0.005 4±0.044 9	5.686 5	< 0.001
2016	0.286 0	-0.005 5±0.046 7	6.242 7	< 0.001
2017	0.272 6	-0.005 2±0.047 0	5.909 3	< 0.001
2018	0.268 6	-0.005 3±0.046 8	5.857 5	< 0.001
2019	0.153 2	-0.004 5±0.046 4	3.396 7	0.004

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2010—2019年广州市各街镇肺结核发病情况时空扫描分析结果

Table 2. Spatial and temporal scanning analysis of tuberculosis incidence in every town in Guangzhou from 2010 to 2019

聚集区	扫描半径(km)	实际发病数	期望发病数	RR值	LLR值	P值
一级聚集区	16.21	6 532	3 636.77	1.84	962.33	< 0.001
二级聚集区1	5.43	1 560	514.84	3.05	688.33	< 0.001
二级聚集区2	11.05	18 494	23 431.00	0.76	669.35	< 0.001

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