基于核密度和地理探测器的南宁市手足口病空间聚集及影响因素

潘梦华; 黄斌; 黎燕宁

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.11.006

基于核密度和地理探测器的南宁市手足口病空间聚集及影响因素

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.11.006

1.
530021南宁，广西医科大学信息与管理学院
2.
530001南宁，广西南宁市兴宁区疾病预防控制中心
3.
530021南宁，广西医科大学公共卫生学院统计学教研室

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金 81260450

详细信息

通讯作者:
黎燕宁，E-mail：liyanning@gxmu.edu.cn

中图分类号: R181.3
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-07-29
- 修回日期: 2020-09-12
- 刊出日期: 2020-11-10

Analysis of spatial clustering and influencing factors of hand, foot, and mouth disease in Nanning based on Nuclear Density and Geodetector

1.
School of Information and Management, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China
2.
Center for Disease Control and Prevention in Xingning District, Nanning 530001, China
3.
Department of Statistics, School of Public Health, Guangxi Medical University, Nanning 530021, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 81260450

More Information

Corresponding author: LI Yan-ning, E-mail:liyanning@gxmu.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 目的分析2008-2015年南宁市手足口病(hand, foot and mouth disease, HFMD)空间聚集及影响因素，为南宁市防控HFMD提供参考。方法收集南宁市2008-2015年HFMD疫情数据，通过核密度方法分析空间聚集，通过地理探测器分析气象因素与社会经济因素对发病的影响。结果 2008-2015年南宁市累计报告HFMD 326 785例，年均发病率为505.24/10万，发病高峰主要集中在4-7月。核密度分析显示HFMD存在明显的空间聚集，其中8年均出现聚集的地区是兴宁区、青秀区、江南区、良庆区和西乡塘区五个区的交界处及马山县的部分地区；地理探测器分析发现气象因素的影响大于社会经济因素的影响，且因素间的交互作用大于它们的单独作用。气温和相对湿度的单独作用及交互作用均是最强的，交互作用最大q值可达0.71(P＜0.001)。结论 2008-2015年南宁市HFMD受气象因素影响较大，社会经济因素的影响可能存在双向作用，中心城区和部分基层地区是防控的关注点。
- 手足口病 /
- 空间聚集 /
- 影响因素 /
- 核密度 /
- 地理探测器
Abstract: Objective To analyze the spatial clustering and influencing factors of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Nanning during the period from 2008 to 2015, so as to provide reference for HFMD prevention and control in Nanning. Methods The information about HFMD in Nanning from 2008 to 2015 was collected, spatial clustering was analyzed by nuclear density, and the effects of meteorological factors and socioeconomic factors on HFMD incidence was analyzed by Geodetector. Results A total of 326 785 HFMD cases were reported from 2008 to 2015 in Nanning. The average annual incidence was 505.24/100 000 with the peak incidence concentrating from April to July. The nuclear density analysis showed that there was obvious spatial clustering of HFMD. The areas of clustering in all eight years were the junction of five districts: Xingning District, Qingxiu District, Jiangnan District, Liangqing District and Xixiangtang District, and the parts of Mashan County. The Geodetector analysis revealed that meteorological factors had stronger impact on HFMD than socioeconomic factors, and the interactive effects between factors were stronger than their individual effects. Both the individual and interactive effects of temperature and relative humidity were the strongest, with interactions up to a maximum q value of 0.71 (P < 0.001). Conclusions The meteorological factors could have stronger effects on the HFMD incidence in Nanning from 2008 to 2015, the effects of socioeconomic factors may be bi-directional, urban areas and some grassroots areas should be concerned for prevention and control.
- Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) /
- Spatial clustering /
- Impact factors /
- Nuclear density /
- Geodetector

HTML全文

图 1 南宁市HFMD发病率时间序列图

Figure 1. Time series plot of incidence rates of HFMD in Nanning

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2008-2015年南宁市各区县HFMD空间聚集情况

Figure 2. Spatial clustering of HFMD by districts and counties in Nanning from 2008 to 2015

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2008-2015年共同出现空间聚集的位置

Figure 3. Location of spatial clustering co-occurrence from 2008 to 2015

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 南宁市气温、降水量和相对湿度的时间序列图

Figure 4. Time series plots of temperature, precipitation and relative humidity in Nanning

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2008-2015年南宁市报告HFMD发病率统计(/10万)

Table 1. Annual incidence rates of reported HFMD in Nanning from 2008 to 2015(/100 000)

区/县	2008年	2009年	2010年	2011年	2012年	2013年	2014年	2015年
兴宁区	249.76	372.64	1 024.90	691.59	860.25	1 074.06	1 531.26	1 007.03
青秀区	242.47	262.31	692.86	529.64	744.40	813.93	1 143.24	710.57
江南区	138.35	322.00	738.26	709.42	964.61	983.64	1 149.65	815.03
西乡塘区	279.38	349.13	908.90	307.25	668.57	867.15	1 049.33	1 118.39
良庆区	87.91	196.56	603.93	552.60	981.91	979.86	1 263.65	709.43
邕宁区	20.30	67.69	185.70	623.90	630.09	690.50	1 030.33	360.70
武鸣县	94.19	188.04	598.71	399.27	770.18	552.70	983.34	606.64
隆安县	77.77	246.46	264.76	567.88	1 166.42	1 415.60	1 705.12	824.41
马山县	205.34	194.65	596.50	802.42	1 122.61	776.63	1 233.23	622.51
上林县	109.74	149.76	938.05	372.22	569.09	645.36	1 393.39	498.97
宾阳县	50.95	106.25	532.02	512.82	786.41	472.48	949.50	377.91
横县	58.02	174.45	296.90	659.89	282.86	320.09	370.06	202.71
合计	130.32	214.71	603.69	539.01	744.32	744.81	1 050.39	603.91

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2008-2015年各影响因素的独立作用(q值)

Table 2. Individual effects of each impact factor from 2008 to 2015 (q value)

年	RHU	TEM	POP	GDP	PRE
2008	0.18	0.14	0.14	0.18	0.15
2009	0.09	0.15	0.15	0.20	0.04
2010	0.12	0.21	0.25	0.17	0.08
2011	0.34	0.36	0.12	0.10	0.07
2012	0.36	0.33	0.11	0.14	0.07
2013	0.03	0.15	0.17	0.10	0.13
2014	0.38	0.26	0.18	0.17	0.09
2015	0.17	0.24	0.16	0.16	0.05

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 2008-2015年各影响因素间的交互作用(q值)

Table 3. Interactive effects among impact factors from 2008 to 2015 (q value)

年	TEM				RHU			PRE		GDP & POP
年	TEM & RHU	TEM & GDP	TEM & POP	TEM & PRE	RHU & POP	RHU & GDP	RHU & PRE	PRE & POP	PRE & GDP	GDP & POP
2008	0.43	0.42	0.36	0.39	0.43	0.45	0.38	0.28	0.26	0.28
2009	0.50	0.56	0.49	0.37	0.38	0.41	0.17	0.28	0.27	0.24
2010	0.32	0.28	0.34	0.34	0.33	0.25	0.25	0.34	0.26	0.26
2011	0.62	0.52	0.52	0.46	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.20	0.16	0.13
2012	0.71	0.67	0.60	0.49	0.63	0.60	0.50	0.28	0.26	0.17
2013	0.24	0.28	0.37	0.32	0.28	0.17	0.24	0.26	0.17	0.19
2014	0.63	0.49	0.49	0.41	0.60	0.59	0.59	0.34	0.30	0.20
2015	0.58	0.53	0.50	0.47	0.42	0.43	0.37	0.28	0.24	0.19

下载: 导出CSV

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