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摘要:
目的 了解上海市2002-2019年交通意外导致死亡的人群特征，分析其发展趋势。 方法 通过上海市居民死因登记系统收集交通意外死亡人群特征，使用t检验及Kruskal-Wallis秩和检验比较不同组之间的死亡率差异，并通过Joinpoint分析交通意外变化趋势的年度变化百分比(annual percent change, APC)。 结果 上海市2002-2019年交通意外死亡率以每年4.13%的速度下降。2019年标化死亡率为3.75/10万，其中男性标化死亡率(4.86/10万)高于女性(2.59/10万)，＞65岁老年人死亡率(18.65/10万)在各年龄组中最高，郊区死亡率(9.18/10万)高于中心城区(3.41/10万)。行人、自行车以及二轮、三轮机动车使用者占全部致死交通事故的84.06%。 结论 上海市应进一步构建安全的交通环境，尽早实现“道路交通死伤人数减半”的发展目标。 Abstract:Objective To analyze the characteristics and trends of people who died of traffic accidents. Methods The data of traffic death were collected from Shanghai Death Registration System. The differences of mortality were tested by t test and Kruskal-Wallis rank test, and the annual percent change (APC) was calculated by Joinpoint Analysis. Results The mortality of traffic accidents in Shanghai from 2002 to 2019 was decreasing (APC=4.13). In 2019, the standardized mortality rate (SMR) was 3.75 per 100 000 population, and the SMR of males (4.86 per 100 000 population) was higher than that of females (2.59 per 100 000 population). People aged 65 had the highest mortality rate, which was 18.65 per 100 000 population. The mortality rate of rural areas (9.18 per 100 000 population) was higher than that of urban areas (3.41 per 100 000 population). Vulnerable road users including pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists accounted for 84.06% of all traffic death. Conclusion It is recommended that Shanghai should build a safer traffic environment to realize the Sustainable Development Goals of '50% reduction in the number of road traffic death′ goal. -
Key words:
- Traffic accident /
- Mortality /
- Epidemiology /
- Trend analysis /
- Sustainable Development Goals
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表 1 上海市2002-2019年交通意外导致死亡人数及死亡率(/10万)
Table 1. Number and rate of road traffic death in Shanghai from 2002 to 2019 (/100 000)
年份(年) 合计 男性 女性 死亡数 死亡率 标化死亡率 死亡数 死亡率 标化死亡率 死亡数 死亡率 标化死亡率 2002 1 833 13.80 12.23 1 246 18.63 16.49 587 8.89 7.76 2003 1 914 14.33 12.28 1 311 19.50 16.83 603 9.08 7.50 2004 1 722 12.80 10.95 1 195 17.66 15.19 527 7.88 6.50 2005 1 704 12.58 10.68 1 187 17.43 14.94 517 7.67 6.20 2006 1 608 11.80 9.83 1 134 16.57 13.87 474 6.98 5.60 2007 1 601 11.67 9.61 1 129 16.40 13.51 472 6.90 5.52 2008 1 389 10.04 8.06 971 14.02 11.25 418 6.05 4.72 2009 1 343 9.63 7.54 931 13.36 10.59 412 5.90 4.35 2010 1 426 10.15 7.69 982 14.01 10.70 444 6.30 4.54 2011 1 386 9.80 7.22 948 13.46 9.93 438 6.17 4.38 2012 1 310 9.21 6.46 880 12.44 8.66 430 6.02 4.15 2013 1 172 8.20 5.59 782 11.01 7.47 390 5.43 3.62 2014 1 132 7.89 5.23 767 10.76 7.00 365 5.06 3.37 2015 1 265 8.79 5.68 827 11.57 7.32 438 6.04 3.97 2016 1 075 7.62 4.76 699 9.74 6.08 376 5.42 3.39 2017 1 140 7.85 4.68 750 10.42 6.21 390 5.33 3.08 2018 1 065 7.30 4.32 712 9.85 5.76 353 4.79 2.79 2019 1 004 6.85 3.75 665 9.16 4.86 339 4.58 2.59 APC [(95% CI)，%] -4.13(-4.58~-3.68) -4.38(-4.82~-3.94) -3.51(-4.16~-2.86) 
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表 2 上海市2002-2019年不同年龄组交通意外死亡数与死亡率(/10万)
Table 2. Number and Rate of road traffic death by age in Shanghai from 2002 to 2019 (/100 000)
年份(年) 0~＜15岁 15~＜45岁 45~＜65岁 ≥65岁 死亡数 死亡率 死亡数 死亡率 死亡数 死亡率 死亡数 死亡率 2002 33 2.25 599 9.93 693 17.96 508 26.34 2003 30 2.40 599 10.32 760 17.58 525 26.44 2004 29 2.31 541 9.26 681 15.65 471 23.55 2005 29 2.44 518 8.84 670 14.94 487 24.15 2006 21 1.82 444 7.67 677 14.56 466 22.84 2007 23 1.99 443 7.71 657 13.84 478 22.98 2008 12 1.03 349 6.19 604 12.28 424 20.00 2009 16 1.36 274 5.01 651 12.64 402 18.69 2010 18 1.51 254 4.70 646 12.33 508 22.93 2011 18 1.49 236 4.41 620 11.75 512 22.11 2012 11 0.89 189 3.56 596 11.31 514 21.44 2013 11 0.86 143 2.73 565 10.75 453 18.08 2014 15 1.13 131 2.55 468 8.93 518 19.66 2015 16 1.16 140 2.77 553 10.66 556 20.02 2016 16 1.14 121 2.48 416 8.33 522 18.40 2017 12 0.81 93 1.89 440 8.77 595 19.23 2018 13 0.85 85 1.74 398 8.14 569 17.35 2019 4 0.27 55 1.10 371 7.26 574 18.65 APC
[(95% CI)，%]-7.14
(-9.00~-5.24)-3.77
(-11.63~4.78)
-12.31
(-13.57~-11.03)a-4.76
(-5.26~-4.26)-2.07
(-2.66~-1.48)
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表 3 上海市2002-2019年不同地区类型交通意外导致死亡数与死亡率(/10万)
Table 3. Number and rate of road traffic death by region in Shanghai from 2002 to 2019 (/100 000)
年份(年) 中心城区 郊区 死亡数 死亡率 死亡数 死亡率 2002 459 7.36 1 374 19.49 2003 427 6.88 1 487 20.79 2004 411 6.63 1 311 18.07 2005 379 6.14 1 325 17.98 2006 416 6.76 1 192 15.95 2007 382 6.21 1 219 16.10 2008 312 5.06 1 077 14.04 2009 338 5.47 1 005 12.94 2010 368 5.95 1 058 13.44 2011 364 5.88 1 022 12.85 2012 353 5.69 957 11.93 2013 301 4.86 871 10.76 2014 302 4.90 830 10.14 2015 359 5.87 906 10.94 2016 262 4.31 813 10.11 2017 265 4.40 875 10.30 2018 256 4.28 809 9.39 2019 202 3.41 802 9.18 APC [(95% CI)，%] -3.12(-3.98~2.24) -4.78(-5.29~-4.28)
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表 4 上海市2002-2019年不同交通类型导致的死亡事故数量及构成比
Table 4. Distribution of deaths by road user type in Shanghai from 2002 to 2019
年份(年) 行人 自行车 二、三轮机动车 四轮机动车 其他 死亡数 构成比(%) 死亡数 构成比(%) 死亡数 构成比(%) 死亡数 构成比(%) 死亡数 构成比(%) 2002 596 32.52 502 27.39 407 22.20 235 12.82 93 5.07 2003 572 29.89 519 27.12 462 24.14 271 14.16 90 4.70 2004 513 29.79 423 24.56 410 23.81 250 14.52 126 7.32 2005 492 28.87 426 25.00 418 24.53 226 13.26 142 8.33 2006 481 29.91 404 25.12 404 25.12 228 14.18 91 5.66 2007 448 27.98 401 25.05 391 24.42 228 14.24 133 8.31 2008 416 29.95 292 21.02 408 29.37 186 13.39 87 6.26 2009 387 28.82 318 23.68 379 28.22 192 14.30 67 4.99 2010 486 34.08 255 17.88 409 28.68 179 12.55 97 6.80 2011 468 33.77 276 19.91 380 27.42 172 12.41 90 6.49 2012 470 35.88 240 18.32 345 26.34 154 11.76 101 7.71 2013 395 33.70 233 19.88 323 27.56 109 9.30 112 9.56 2014 402 35.51 221 19.52 301 26.59 116 10.25 92 8.13 2015 417 32.96 271 21.42 312 24.66 106 8.38 159 12.57 2016 373 34.70 194 18.05 304 28.28 96 8.93 108 10.05 2017 371 32.54 192 16.84 388 34.04 100 8.77 89 7.81 2018 367 34.46 197 18.50 341 32.02 65 6.10 95 8.92 2019 264 26.29 172 17.13 408 40.64 75 7.47 85 8.47
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