2004—2017年全国0~10岁人群乙型肝炎发病趋势

王鹏举; 余莉; 王一卉; 崔旭东; 曹雁文; 李绍玄; 高银燕; 丁国武

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.05.014

2004—2017年全国0~10岁人群乙型肝炎发病趋势

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.05.014

1.
730000 兰州，兰州大学公共卫生学院社会医学与卫生事业管理研究所
2.
730000 兰州，兰州大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学研究所

详细信息

通讯作者:
丁国武，E-mail: dinggw2018@126.com

中图分类号: R181
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-08-23
- 修回日期: 2020-11-11
- 网络出版日期: 2021-06-16
- 刊出日期: 2021-05-10

Incidence trend of hepatitis B among people aged 0-10 years in China from 2004 to 2017

1.
Institute of Social Medicine and Health Administration, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
2.
Institute of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

More Information

Corresponding author: DING Guo-wu, E-mail: dinggw2018@126.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析2004-2017年全国0~10岁人群乙型肝炎(简称乙肝)发病趋势。方法 2004-2017年0~10岁人群乙肝发病数据来自国家公共卫生科学数据中心。应用Joinpoint回归分析模型分析发病趋势变化，计算年均变化百分比和年度变化百分比。构建年龄-时期-队列模型，分析年龄、时期和出生队列对乙肝发病趋势变化的影响。结果 2004-2017年全国0~10岁人群新发乙肝病例共17 007万例，发病率为7.74/10万。Joinpoint回归分析模型结果显示，2004-2017年0~10岁人群的乙肝发病率总体呈下降趋势(AAPC=-12.060 45，P＜0.001)，2015-2017年(APC=2.28，P=0.907 7)呈无规律变化。出生队列分析发现出生年代越晚的人群，乙肝发病率越低。同时，年龄-时期-队列模型结果表明，0~10岁人群乙肝发病率变化受到年龄、时期和队列因素的影响(均有P＜0.001)。结论 2004-2017年全国0~10岁人群的乙肝发病率总体不断降低，2015-2017年间下降趋势有所放缓。建议进一步加强对乙肝的防制措施，不断降低乙肝发病风险。
- 乙型肝炎 /
- 发病率 /
- 趋势分析 /
- 年龄-时期-队列模型
Abstract: Objective To analyze the incidence trend of hepatitis B among people aged 0-10 years old in China from 2004 to 2017. Methods The data of hepatitis B incidence among people aged 0-10 years old from 2004 to 2017 was used from the National Public Health Science Data Center. The incidence trend was analyzed by Joinpoint regression, and the average percent change and the annual percent change were calculated. At the same time, the age-period-cohort model was constructed to analyze the impalt of age, period and birth cohort on the trend of hepatitis B. Results From 2004 to 2017, there were 170 700 new cases of hepatitis B among the 0-10 years old in China, and the incidence rate was 7.74/100 000. Besides, the results of Joinpoint regression showed that the incidence rate of hepatitis B among people aged 0-10 years old presented a general downward trend from 2004 to 2017 (AAPC=-12.060 45, P < 0.001), and there was an irregular change from 2015 to 2017 (APC=2.28, P=0.9077). Birth cohort analysis showed that the incidence rate of hepatitis B was lower in the later generation. Meanwhile, the results of the age-period-cohort model showed that the incidence rate of hepatitis B among the 0-10 years old population was significantly influenced by age, period and cohort (all P < 0.001). Conclusions From 2004 to 2017, the incidence of hepatitis B among people aged 0-10 years old in China has decreased continuously, and the downward trend has slowed down. It is suggested to strengthen the prevention and control of hepatitis B in order to reduce the risk of hepatitis B.
- Hepatitis B /
- Incidence rate /
- Trend analysis /
- Age-period-cohort model

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图 1 2004-2017年全国全人群与0~10岁人群乙肝发病率变化

Figure 1. The incidence rate of hepatitis B among the whole population and 0-10 years old group in China, 2004-2017

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 全国2004-2017年0~10岁人群乙肝发病趋势

Figure 2. Trend of hepatitis B incidence among people aged 0-10 years in China, 2004-2017

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图 3 2004-2017年中国0~10岁人群乙型肝炎发病率年龄-出生队列曲线图

Figure 3. Age-birth-cohort curve of the incidence rate of hepatitis B among people aged 0-10 years in China, 2004-2017

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图 4 2004-2017年中国0~10岁人群乙型肝炎发病率年龄-时期-队列分析

注：A：2004-2017年全国0~10岁人群乙肝发病的纵向年龄曲线；B：时期相对风险(乙肝发病率的时期效应)；C：队列相对风险(乙肝发病率的队列效应)；D：局部漂移与全局漂移(乙肝发病率的特定年龄组的年度变化率)。

Figure 4. Age-period-cohort analysis of the incidence rate of hepatitis B among 0-10 years old people in China, 2004-2017

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表 1 2004-2017年全国0~10岁人群乙肝发病率APC模型检验(Wald检验)

Table 1. The APC model test of the incidence rate of hepatitis B among the whole population and 0-10 years old in China, 2004-2017 (Wald Tests)

零假设	χ²值	df值	P值
全局变化(Net Drift)= 0	1788.787 9	1	＜0.001
总年龄偏差(All Age Deviations)= 0	352.830 9	8	＜0.001
总时期偏差(All Period Deviations)= 0	225.003 4	12	＜0.001
总队列偏差(All Cohort Deviations)= 0	660.709 6	21	＜0.001
全时期RR(All Period RR)= 1	1910.706 5	13	＜0.001
全队列RR(All Cohort RR)= 1	2418.131 0	22	＜0.001
所有局部变化(All Local Drifts)=全局变化(Net Drift)	561.820 3	10	＜0.001

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