2010-2019年福建省肺结核流行特征及发病预测模型应用

林淑芳; 周银发; 张山鹰; 戴志松; 陈代权

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.07.006

2010-2019年福建省肺结核流行特征及发病预测模型应用

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.07.006

350001 福州，福建省疾病预防控制中心结核病防治科

基金项目:

福建省科技创新平台建设项目 2019Y2001

详细信息

通讯作者:
林淑芳，E-mail：zqszl@163.com

中图分类号: R183.3
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-09-25
- 修回日期: 2021-01-13
- 网络出版日期: 2021-08-13
- 刊出日期: 2021-07-10

Analysis of tuberculosis epidemiological characteristics and application of incidence prediction model in Fujian Province from 2010 to 2019

Department of Tuberculosis Prevention and Control, Fujian Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou 350001, China

Funds:

Construction of Fujian Provincial Scientific and Technological Innovation Platform 2019Y2001

More Information

Corresponding author: LIN Shu-fang, E-mail: zqszl@163.com

摘要

摘要: 目的了解2010-2019年福建省肺结核流行特征，建立自回归滑动平均混合模型(autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA)，并探讨其在福建省肺结核月发病数预测中的应用。方法通过中国疾病预防控制中心《结核病信息管理系统》获取2010年1月-2020年6月福建省报告的活动性肺结核发病数据；利用Excel 2016软件及Arcgis 10.2软件对2010-2019年福建省报告的活动性肺结核发病数据进行描述性统计分析；应用SPSS 24.0软件建立复合季节ARIMA模型并利用模型进行月发病数预测。结果 2010-2019年福建省共报告活动性肺结核患者202 842例，平均发病率53.5/10万，整体呈下降趋势(χ_趋势²=1 952.427, P < 0.001)，1、2、10月报告发病数相对较少，占比分别为7.1%、6.2%以及7.6%，3月有个小高峰，占比9.2%；沿海城市的肺结核报告发病率高于内陆(χ²=1 169.414, P < 0.001)；男性活动性肺结核患者数是女性的2.77倍；报告发病率随年龄增长呈上升趋势，在65~75岁年龄段到最高，患者主要集中在中青年阶段，占比81.5%。职业为农民工的患者占比最高，占比59.9%，其次是家务及待业，占比16.4%。ARIMA (3, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)₁₂模型具有较好的预测效果，总体相对误差为2.4%，12个月预测值95% CI均涵盖真实值。结论近年来福建省肺结核报告发病率总体呈下降趋势，男性、青壮年以及农民工是肺结核防治重点人群；建立的复合季节ARIMA (3, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)₁₂模型可用于福建省肺结核短期发病预测。
- 结核 /
- 肺 /
- 流行特征 /
- 预测 /
- ARIMA模型
Abstract: Objective The study aims to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of tuberculosis (TB) in Fujian Province from 2010 to 2019, and establishing autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to discuss its application in predicting the monthly incidence of TB in Fujian Province. Methods The incidence data of active TB reported in Fujian Province from January 2010 to June 2020 were obtained through the TB Information Management System of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The Excel 2016, ArcGIS 10.2 and SPSS 24.0 softwares were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics of TB in Fujian Province from 2010 to 2019, and established the composite seasonal ARIMA model to predict the monthly incidence of TB. Results A total of 202 842 cases of active TB were reported in Fujian Province from 2010 to 2019, with an average incidence of 53.5/100 000, and the incidence showed a decreasing trend in the past decade (χ²=1 952.427, P < 0.001). Relatively few cases were reported in January, February and October, accounting for 7.1%, 6.2% and 7.6%, and there was a small peak in March, accounting for 9.2%. The incidence of TB reported in coastal city was significantly higher than that in inland area (χ²=1 169.414, P < 0.001). The number of male patients with active TB was 2.77 times than that of female patients. The incidence of TB increased with age, and reached the highest at the age of 65 to 75; and the patients were mainly in the middle and young ages, accounting for 81.5%. The proportion of patients with migrant workers was the highest, accounting for 59.9%, followed by housework and unemployment, accounting for 16.4%. The desirable prediction result obtained by ARIMA (3, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)₁₂, showed that the relative error was 2.4% and 95% confidence interval of the predicted value of each month contained the actual value. Conclusion The incidence of TB in Fujian Province presented a declining trend in the past decade. Male, young adult and migrant workers were the important population for TB control in Fujian Province. The composite seasonal ARIMA (3, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)₁₂ model can be used for predicting the short-term incidence of TB in Fujian Province.
- Tuberculosis /
- Pulmonary /
- Epidemiologic characteristics /
- Prediction /
- ARIMA model

HTML全文

图 1 2010-2019年福建省活动性肺结核报告发病数月份分布

Figure 1. Monthly distribution of tuberculosis in Fujian Province from 2010 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2010-2019年福建省活动性肺结核报告发病率地区分布

Figure 2. Regional distribution of tuberculosis in Fujian Province from 2010 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2010-2019年福建省活动性肺结核报告发病年龄分布情况

Figure 3. Age distribution of tuberculosis in Fujian Province from 2010 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 2010年1月-2019年6月福建省活动性肺结核报告发病数时序图

Figure 4. Time-series Graph of tuberculosis in Fujian Province from January 2010 to June 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 5 经一阶差分后的序列的ACF与PACF图

Figure 5. ACF and PACF of sequence after one difference

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 9种ARIMA模型相关参数及统计量

Table 1. Parameters and statistics of 9 ARIMA models

模型	Box-Ljung Q检验		正态BIC
模型	Q值	P值	正态BIC
ARIMA (3, 1, 2) (0, 1, 0)₁₂	33.446	0.001	10.438
ARIMA (3, 1, 2) (0, 1, 1)₁₂	18.642	0.098	10.200
ARIMA (3, 1, 2) (0, 1, 2)₁₂	16.016	0.141	10.251
ARIMA (3, 1, 2) (1, 1, 0)₁₂	16.576	0.166	10.257
ARIMA (3, 1, 2) (1, 1, 1)₁₂	15.925	0.144	10.250
ARIMA (3, 1, 2) (1, 1, 2)₁₂	15.818	0.105	10.300
ARIMA (3, 1, 2) (2, 1, 0)₁₂	16.913	0.110	10.293
ARIMA (3, 1, 2) (2, 1, 1)₁₂	16.120	0.096	10.293
ARIMA (3, 1, 2) (2, 1, 2)₁₂	16.070	0.065	10.361
ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (0, 1, 1)₁₂ ^a	32.123	0.010	9.947
注：^a使用专家建模器(仅限ARIMA模型)创建。

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 最优模型预测结果

Table 2. The predicted result of the optimal model

年份(年)	月份	实际值	预测值	预测值(95% CI)值	相对误差(%)
2019	7	1 693	1 730	1 489~1 972	-2.19
2019	8	1 606	1 717	1 475~1 959	-6.91
2019	9	1 515	1 640	1 397~1 882	-8.25
2019	10	1 490	1 521	1 264~1 778	-2.08
2019	11	1 450	1 671	1 408~1 933	-15.24
2019	12	1 652	1 897	1 631~2 162	-14.83
2020	1	1 589	1 420	1 149~1 691	10.64
2020	2	1 014	1 192	916~1 468	-17.55
2020	3	1 633	1 733	1 453~2 013	-6.12
2020	4	1 826	1 694	1 410~1 978	7.23
2020	5	1 788	1 698	1 410~1 987	5.03
2020	6	1 841	1 653	1 361~1 945	10.21
合计		19 097	19 566		-2.46

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