2006-2019年中山市丙型病毒性肝炎报告发病率的年龄-时期-队列分析

陈楚莹; 陈秀云; 王曼; 朱穗

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.07.007

2006-2019年中山市丙型病毒性肝炎报告发病率的年龄-时期-队列分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.07.007

陈楚莹¹,
陈秀云¹,
王曼¹,
朱穗^2, ,

1.
528403 中山，中山市疾病预防控制中心卫生防疫科
2.
510632 广州，暨南大学基础医学与公共卫生学院预防医学系卫生统计教研室

基金项目:

中山市社会公益科技研究项目 2019B1111

详细信息

通讯作者:
朱穗，E-mail: zhusui1213@jnu.edu.cn

中图分类号: R512.63; R181
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-08-27
- 修回日期: 2020-11-10
- 网络出版日期: 2021-08-13
- 刊出日期: 2021-07-10

An age-period-cohort study for reported incidence of hepatitis C in Zhongshan City, from 2006 to 2019

1.
Department of Health and Epidemic Prevention, Zhongshan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Zhongshan 528403, China
2.
Department of Health Statistics, Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Basic Medical Sciences and Public health, Jinan University, Guangzhou 510632, China

Funds:

Zhongshan Science and Welfare Technology Research Major Project 2019B1111

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHU Sui, E-mail: zhusui1213@jnu.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 目的掌握广东省中山市丙型病毒性肝炎(简称丙肝)报告发病率在年龄、时期和出生队列三个纬度的变化趋势。方法采用广义相加模型分析年龄、时期及出生队列对2006-2019年中山市丙肝报告病例的影响。结果 2006-2019年中山市丙肝年均报告发病率为28.49/10万。0~＜10岁组的年龄效应值呈下降趋势，10岁以后随年龄增长而升高。男性高危出生队列在1970-1990年，女性在1960-1990年。2000年后男性出生队列效应RR值逐渐升高，女性逐年下降。结论中山市丙肝报告发病率较高，需做好高危出生队列人群的健康教育，尤其是加强2000年以后出生男性的行为干预，降低疾病传播风险。
- 丙型病毒性肝炎 /
- 报告发病率 /
- 年龄-时期-队列模型
Abstract: Objective To explore the age-period-cohort trend of reported incidence rate of hepatitis C in Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province. Methods The generalized additive model was used to analyze the effect of age, period and cohort on the reported cases of hepatitis C in Zhongshan City from 2006 to 2019. Results The annual incidence rate in Zhongshan was 28.49 per 100 000, from 2006 to 2019. The downward age effect was observed in 0-10 years old group, but increased trend was found after 10 years old. The highest RR was found in male born between 1970 and 1990, and in female born between 1960 to 1990. However, the birth cohort effect of RR increased for male born after the year 2000, but decreased for female year by year. Conclusions The incidence rate of hepatitis C is high in Zhongshan City. It's necessary to enhance the health education for higher risk birth cohort, especially for male born after the year 2000, and to reduce the disease transmission risk.
- Hepatitis C /
- Reported incidence rate /
- Age-period-cohort model

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图 1 2006-2019年年龄-时期-队列与中山市丙肝报告发病率的平滑关系

Figure 1. The smooth relationship between age-period-cohort and reported incidence rate of hepatitis C in Zhongshan City from 2006 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2006-2019年中山市丙肝报告发病率出生队列效应(以1960年为参考)

Figure 2. The birth cohort effect of reported incidence rate of hepatitis C in Zhongshan City from 2006 to 2019 (1960 as a reference)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

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