2013―2019年南京市大气PM<sub>2.5</sub>短期暴露对人群超额死亡风险评估

孙凤霞; 熊丽林; 杨华凤; 贾云飞; 陈春静; 唐彦钊; 郑雨虹; 韦丽

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.11.004

2013―2019年南京市大气PM_2.5短期暴露对人群超额死亡风险评估

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.11.004

1.
210003 南京，南京市疾病预防控制中心环境卫生科
2.
210003 南京，南京市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染病防制科

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金 21876026

江苏省预防医学课题 Y2018005

南京市卫生科技发展项目 ZKX20046

详细信息

通讯作者:
韦丽，E-mail: weilisunny@163.com

中图分类号: R181;R122.7
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-03-15
- 修回日期: 2021-05-04
- 网络出版日期: 2021-12-04
- 刊出日期: 2021-11-10

Assessing the excess mortality related to short-term exposure to PM_2.5 in Nanjing from 2013 to 2019

1.
Department of Environmental Health, Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210003, China
2.
Department of Non-communicable Disease Prevention, Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210003, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foudation of China 21876026

Jiangsu Preventive Medicine Project Y2018005

Nanjing Medical Science and Technology Development Fund ZKX20046

More Information

Corresponding author: WEI Li, E-mail: weilisunny@163.com

摘要

摘要: 目的评估2013―2019年南京市大气细颗粒物(fine particulate matter, PM_2.5)短期暴露对人群死亡的影响及其所致超额死亡人数。方法收集环保、气象、户籍人口和死因监测数据，采用广义相加模型分析PM_2.5对人群死亡的影响，得到暴露-反应关系系数，估算因PM_2.5短期暴露导致人群超额死亡人数。结果在2013―2019年，南京市大气PM_2.5质量浓度增加，居民各系统疾病死亡风险随着升高(均有P < 0.05)。PM_2.5短期暴露引发的人群非意外总死亡中超额死亡人数为8 479人，占人群非意外总死亡的3.21%；呼吸系统疾病、恶性肿瘤疾病、循环系统疾病、脑血管疾病和心血管疾病的超额死亡人数及其占所属疾病类型总死亡人数的比例分别为1 202人(4.32%)、1 424人(1.60%)、4 505人(3.94%)、2 613人(3.79%)和1 856人(4.14%)。结论 2013―2019年南京市PM_2.5质量浓度和其造成的居民超额死亡人数呈降低趋势，南京市大气污染防治健康收益良好。
- 大气细颗粒物 /
- 超额死亡 /
- 健康风险评估
Abstract: Objective To estimate impact of residents death and excess mortality induced by fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) short-term exposure in Nanjing from 2013 to 2019. Methods Environmental data, meteorological data, population of community residents and death surveillance data in Nanjing was collected. Generalized additive model of time series analysis was used to analyze the effects of PM_2.5 on risk of death, and estimated excess mortality related to PM_2.5. Results The risk of residents death increased while the concentration of PM_2.5 increased in Nanjing from 2013 to 2019. The number of excess mortality due to PM_2.5, including non-accidental causes, respiratory diseases, cancer, circulatory diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, cardiovascular diseases was 8 479(3.21%), 1 202(4.32%), 1 424(1.60%), 4 505(3.94%), 2 613(3.79%) and 1 856(4.14%). Conclusion The excess mortality caused by PM_2.5 was decreasing while the concentration of PM_2.5 decreased in Nanjing from 2013 to 2019. The health benefits of air pollution prevention and control in Nanjing are good.
- Ambient fine particulate matter /
- Excess death /
- Health risk assessment

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图 1 2013―2019年南京市大气PM_2.5日均浓度时序分布

Figure 1. Time series distribution of PM_2.5 daily concentration in Nanjing from 2013 to 2019

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图 2 2013―2019年南京市大气PM_2.5对人群日死亡数的影响

注：a: 非意外总死亡；b: 呼吸系统疾病死亡；c: 恶性肿瘤疾病死亡；d: 循环系统疾病死亡；e: 心血管疾病死亡；f: 脑血管疾病死亡。

Figure 2. Effect of ambient PM_2.5 on resident daily death in Nanjing from 2013 to 2019

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表 1 2013―2019年南京市大气污染物、气象因素和居民死亡情况

Table 1. Air pollutants, meteorological factors and number of residents death in Nanjing from 2013 to 2019

变量	Min	P₂₅	M	P₇₅	Max
大气污染物
PM_2.5(μg/m³)	6.11	28.70	44.79	69.41	327.44
O₃(μg/m³)	8.40	61.95	90.85	129.35	316.00
SO₂(μg/m³)	4.00	9.93	15.11	23.60	139.00
NO₂(μg/m³)	9.43	31.21	41.57	56.33	140.67
气象因素
日均温度(℃)	-6.70	8.70	17.80	63.00	34.50
日均相对湿度(%)	28.00	24.30	73.00	83.00	100.00
健康效应指标(例/d)
非意外死亡	54	91	101	115	170
呼吸系统疾病死亡	0	8	10	14	31
恶性肿瘤疾病死亡	15	31	35	39	57
循环系统疾病死亡	20	37	44	51	98
脑血管疾病死亡	9	22	26	31	69
心血管疾病死亡	5	14	17	21	41

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表 2 不同模型中南京市大气PM_2.5浓度每增加10 μg/m³时日死亡数增加的超额危险度(%)

Table 2. Excess risk for every 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 concentration by different pollutant model in Nanjing (%)

污染物	自由度	非意外死亡		呼吸系统疾病死亡		恶性肿瘤疾病死亡		循环系统疾病死亡		脑血管疾病死亡		心血管疾病死亡
污染物	自由度	ER	(95% CI)值	ER	(95% CI)值	ER	(95% CI)值	ER	(95% CI)值	ER	(95% CI)值	ER	(95% CI)值
PM_2.5	6	0.92	0.75~1.08	1.17	0.76~1.59	0.47	0.24~0.70	1.14	0.91~1.37	1.15	0.86~1.43	1.10	0.78~1.43
PM_2.5	7	1.05	0.87~1.23	1.29	0.83~1.76	0.54	0.28~0.79	1.28	1.03~1.54	1.25	0.93~1.57	1.33	0.97~1.68
PM_2.5	8	1.05	0.87~1.23	1.30	0.84~1.76	0.54	0.28~0.79	1.27	1.01~1.52	1.25	0.93~1.57	1.32	0.97~1.68
PM_2.5+O₃	7	0.57	0.44~0.69	0.79	0.46~1.13	0.27	0.11~0.44	0.67	0.49~0.85	0.67	0.45~0.88	0.67	0.42~0.92
PM_2.5+SO₂	7	0.97	0.82~1.12	1.27	0.89~1.65	0.47	0.26~0.68	1.18	0.97~1.39	1.14	0.87~1.40	1.25	0.95~1.54
PM_2.5+NO₂	7	0.84	0.71~0.96	1.01	0.68~1.35	0.46	0.27~0.64	1.03	0.85~1.21	1.06	0.83~1.28	1.00	0.74~1.26

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表 3 2013―2019年南京市大气PM_2.5污染造成的超额死亡人数

Table 3. Excess mortality caused by ambient PM_2.5 in Nanjing from 2013 to 2019

年份	非意外总超额死亡人数		呼吸系统疾病超额死亡人数		恶性肿瘤疾病超额死亡人数		循环系统疾病超额死亡人数		脑血管疾病超额死亡人数		心血管疾病超额死亡人数
年份	WHO标准	中国标准	WHO标准	中国标准	WHO标准	中国标准	WHO标准	中国标准	WHO标准	中国标准	WHO标准	中国标准
2013	1 965	749	294	117	330	120	1 052	410	591	226	454	181
2014	1 754	514	270	84	305	86	895	267	509	152	380	113
2015	1 302	332	190	50	225	56	679	176	394	99	280	76
2016	1 072	219	143	31	178	35	582	122	349	72	228	48
2017	799	116	102	18	131	18	431	62	254	36	173	26
2018	857	180	111	26	139	27	462	99	274	59	183	39
2019	730	85	92	12	116	13	404	47	242	28	158	19
合计	8 479	2 195	1 202	338	1 424	355	4 505	1183	2 613	672	1 856	502

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