中国H5N1禽流感时空分布特征研究

卫小萌; 张娟; 李明涛; 裴鑫

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.11.014

中国H5N1禽流感时空分布特征研究

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.11.014

卫小萌^{1, 2},
张娟^1, ,,
李明涛³,
裴鑫^3, ,

1.
030006 太原，山西大学复杂系统研究所, 山西省数学技术与大数据分析重点实验室
2.
030006 太原，山西大学数学科学学院
3.
030024 太原，太原理工大学数学学院

基金项目:

山西省青年基金项目 201901D211158

山西省高等学校科技创新项目 2019L0112

国家自然科学基金资助项目 11601292

国家自然科学基金资助项目 11801398

国家自然科学基金资助项目 12101443

详细信息

通讯作者:
裴鑫，E-mail: peixin1120@126.com

张娟，E-mail: zhangjuan1020@sxu.edu.cn

中图分类号: R181.2;S855.3
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-02-22
- 修回日期: 2021-05-02
- 网络出版日期: 2021-12-04
- 刊出日期: 2021-11-10

Spatial and temporal distribution of H5N1 avian influenza in mainland China

WEI Xiao-meng^{1, 2},
ZHANG Juan^{1
, ,},
LI Ming-tao³,
PEI Xin^{3
, ,}

1.
Complex Systems Research Center, Shanxi University, Shanxi Key Laboratory of Mathematical Techniques and Big Data Analysis on Disease Control and Prevention, Shanxi, Taiyuan 030006, China
2.
School of Mathematical Sciences, Shanxi University, Shanxi, Taiyuan 030006, China
3.
College of Mathematics, Taiyuan University of Technology, Shanxi, Taiyuan 030024, China

Funds:

General Youth Fund project in Shanxi Province 201901D211158

Scientific and Technological Innovation Programs of Higher Education Institutions in Shanxi Province 2019L0112

National Natural Science Foundation of China Under Grant 11601292

National Natural Science Foundation of China Under Grant 11801398

National Natural Science Foundation of China Under Grant 12101443

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHANG Juan, E-mail: zhangjuan1020@sxu.edu.cn; PEI Xin, E-mail: peixin1120@126.com

摘要

摘要: 目的以中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)为研究区域，探究其2004—2019年H5N1亚型高致病禽流感发生次数时空分布特征。方法基于ArcGIS 10.5软件和SPSS 26.0软件，应用聚类分析和χ²检验研究H5N1疫病的时间分布特征和影响因素。应用空间自相关方法研究H5N1疫病的空间分布特征。结果通过时间聚类分析，得到在疫情流行阶段(2004—2005年)和平稳阶段(2006—2019年)，H5N1疫情暴发次数在时间分布上都存在聚集性，其中1月、2月、6月和11月为疫病的高发期。通过全局空间自相关分析，发现疫情流行阶段H5N1空间分布呈聚集性，疫情平稳阶段呈现随机分布。通过局部自相关分析，表明流行阶段H5N1热点地区集中在中国中部地区，主要包括乌鲁木齐、咸宁、岳阳、安庆、九江等市，平稳阶段的热点地区主要集中在中国西北部。χ²检验显示疫病发生与候鸟迁徙具有相关关系。结论中国H5N1禽流感在流行阶段具有时空聚集性，在平稳阶段仅具有一定的时间聚集性。
- H5N1 /
- 时空统计方法 /
- 空间自相关 /
- 时间相关性 /
- 候鸟
Abstract: Objective To explore the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the frequency of H5N1 subtype highly pathogenic avian influenza from 2004 to 2019 in 31 autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government in mainland China. Methods Based on ArcGIS10.5 and SPSS 26 software, cluster analysis and chi-square test were applied to investigate the temporal distribution characteristics and influencing factors of H5N1 epidemic disease. The spatial autocorrelation method was applied to study the spatial distribution characteristics of H5N1 epidemic diseases. Results Temporal cluster analysis showed that the frequency of H5N1 outbreak was clustering in the temporal distribution during both the epidemic phase (2004-2005) and the stationary phase (2006-2019), with January, February, June, and November being periods of high incidence of the disease. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the spatial distribution of H5N1 was clustering during the epidemic phase and presented a random distribution during the stationary phase of the epidemic. Local autocorrelation analysis showed that H5N1 hotspot areas in the epidemic stage were concentrated in Xinjiang and central China, mainly including Urumqi, Xianning, Yueyang, Anqing, and Jiujiang, and hotspot areas in the stable stage were mainly concentrated in northwest China. Chi-square test showed that there was a correlation between epidemic disease and bird migration. Conclusion The frequency of H5N1 avian influenza in mainland China has spatiotemporal clustering in the epidemic stage and only certain temporal clustering in the stable stage.
- H5N1 /
- Spatio-temporal statistical method /
- Spatial autocorrelation analysis /
- Correlation of temporal /
- Migratory bird

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图 1 H5N1暴发分月聚类分析(月)

注：(a)流行阶段2004—2005年；(b)平稳阶段2006—2019年；(c)整个时间段2004—2019年。

Figure 1. Cluster analysis of H5N1 occurrence with month as unit of time

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 中国2004—2019年H5N1暴发热点分析结果

Table 1. The results of hot spot analysis about H5N1 outbreaks in mainland China from 2004 to 2019

年份	省/市地区Z值
年份	>1.96(热点区域)	< -1.96(冷点区域)
2004	河南：驻马店、信阳；湖北：随州、孝感、天门、潜江、荆州、仙桃、武汉、黄冈、鄂州、黄石；安徽：六安、安庆、池州、芜湖、宣城、黄山；浙江：杭州；湖南：岳阳、益阳、长沙、湘潭、株洲、郴州、永州；江西：除上饶外全部地区；福建：南平；广东：韶关、清远、肇庆、佛山、云浮、江门；云南：怒江州、保山、临沧、普洱、西双版纳、文山州	四川：绵阳、德阳、成都、遂宁、资阳、眉山、内江；重庆
2005	新疆：除克孜勒苏柯尔克孜州外全部地区；黑龙江：大兴安岭地区	陕西：汉中；四川：绵阳、遂宁、资阳、内江、自贡、广元、巴中、南充、广安；重庆；贵州：遵义
2006	新疆：阿克苏、喀什、和田地区；西藏：全区；青海：除海西州、黄南州外全部地区；甘肃：金昌、兰州、临夏州；内蒙古：阿拉善盟、乌海、鄂尔多斯；陕西：榆林
2007	新疆：昌吉、库尔勒、奎屯、石河子、乌鲁木齐、吐鲁番、哈密；西藏：除阿里地区、昌都外全部地区；湖南：株洲、永州；江西：萍乡、赣州；广西：桂林、柳州、贺州；广东：清远、韶关
2008	西藏：除阿里地区外全部地区；青海：玉树州；广西：桂林、柳州、钦州、北海；广东：潮州、汕头、揭阳、汕尾、深圳、珠海、湛江
2009	新疆：阿克苏、喀什、和田地区；西藏：除昌都外全部地区；甘肃：嘉峪关、金昌、张掖；青海：海北州、海南州、果洛藏族州、黄南州、西宁
2011	西藏：除阿里地区、昌都外全部地区
2012	新疆：哈密、吐鲁番、乌鲁木齐、昌吉、塔城、石河子、奎屯、克拉玛依、阿勒泰；青海：西宁、海东州、黄南州；甘肃：金昌、武威、白银、兰州、临夏州、甘南州、定西、天水、平凉、庆阳；宁夏：全区；内蒙古：鄂尔多斯；陕西：榆林
2013	西藏：林芝；贵州：黔南州
2014	四川：凉山州、攀枝花；云南：除丽江、迪庆州外全部地区；贵州：毕节、六盘水、安顺、黔西南州；广西：白色
2015	河南：信阳；安徽：毫州、阜阳；江苏：常州；浙江：湖州、杭州、金华、衢州、丽水
2016	四川：凉山州、雅安、眉山、资阳、乐山、内江、自贡、宜宾、泸州、攀枝花；重庆；贵州：全省；云南：丽江、昭通、楚雄州、玉溪、红河州、昆明、曲靖、文山州；广西：柳州、河池、百色、崇左
2017	黑龙江：大庆；吉林：除延边州、白山外全部地区；辽宁：全省；内蒙古：兴安盟、通辽、赤峰；河北：承德、秦皇岛
2018	青海：海西州、玉树州；甘肃：酒泉、嘉峪关
2019	吉林：除延边州外全部地区；辽宁：全省；河北：承德、秦皇岛、唐山

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 H5N1发生时间与候鸟迁徙途经及滞留时间的χ²检验结果

Table 2. The results of chi-square test about the time when H5N1 occurred and migratory birds migrated

省/自治区	次数/年	H5N1发生时间	候鸟迁徙途经或滞留时间	检验方法	χ²值	P值
西藏	8	12-5月	越冬地：每年11月至次年4月下旬	Pearsonχ²检验	7.768	0.005
贵州	6	12-2月	越冬地：每年12月至次年3月	连续性校正χ²检验	5.114	0.024
新疆	5	2-11月	繁殖地：每年6月至8月; 越冬地：每年11月至次年2月		3.886	0.049
青海	4	4-6月	繁殖地：每年4月至6月	—	16.254	0.000
辽宁	4	4月	过境北迁：每年3月至5月	Fisher确切概率法		0.001

下载: 导出CSV

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