采用乘数法结合社交软件估计南京市MSM人群规模

徐园园; 朱正平; 张敏; 吴苏姝; 郭璐; 李昕; 时红杰

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.01.008

采用乘数法结合社交软件估计南京市MSM人群规模

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.01.008

210003 南京，南京市疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病防制科

基金项目:

南京市重点专科项目 infectious diseases special subject

南京市医学重点科技发展项目 ZKX19050

详细信息

通讯作者:
朱正平，E-mail: zzp@njcdc.cn

中图分类号: R512.91;R181.3
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-04-07
- 修回日期: 2021-05-29
- 网络出版日期: 2022-01-16
- 刊出日期: 2022-01-10

Population size estimation of men who have sex with men in Nanjing using multiplier method based on social software

Department of STD/AIDS Prevention and Treatment, Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing 210003, China

Funds:

Nanjing Municipal Medical Special Subject Program infectious diseases special subject

Nanjing Municipal Medical Development Program ZKX19050

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHU Zheng-ping, E-mail: zzp@njcdc.cn

摘要

摘要: 目的估计南京市MSM规模，为艾滋病疫情估计和防治策略制定提供科学依据。方法基于乘数法原理结合Blued社交软件，并同时采用现场调查和网络调查对南京市的MSM规模进行估计，通过男同社交软件Blued的后台统计连续7 d在南京市范围内登录人数的平均值作为记录数(record, r)，通过网络和现场调查了解MSM同时期内登录过软件比例的倒数作为乘数(multiplier, m)，r与m相乘即为南京市MSM人群规模。结果南京市MSM人群规模估计数为35 138(95% CI: 33 847~36 429)人，占全市15~59岁男性人口的比例为1.12%(95% CI: 1.08%~1.16%)。不同调查方法间MSM的寻找性伴方式、月收入、近6个月是否发生同性肛交行为、肛交时安全套使用情况、新型毒品使用的构成比差异均有统计学意义(均有P < 0.05)。结论利用乘数法并结合男性社交软件的估计结果基本反映了南京市MSM的人群规模，而采用网络调查能发现更多隐蔽的MSM，具有一定的可行性和可信度。
- 男男性行为者 /
- 规模估计 /
- 乘数法 /
- 社交软件
Abstract: Objective The study aimed to estimate the population size of men who have sex with men (MSM) in Nanjing, to provide valuable information for estimating the AIDS epidemic, and to develop HIV prevention strategy. Methods An innovative approach to population size estimation grounded on the principles of the multiplier method and social app technology, and location-based surveys and internet-based surveys were undertaken among MSM. The number of MSM (r) is the average person-times of logging in Blued App in Nanjing region within 7 days. Meanwhile, a survey was conducted among MSM to obtain the proportion of MSM who had logging in the Blued APP during the given period and the reciprocal of the proportion was the multiplier (m). The MSM population size can be estimated by r multiplied by m. Results The population of MSM in Nanjing was estimated to be 35 138 (95% CI: 33 847-36 429) and corresponded to 1.12% of the adult male population aged from 15 to 59 years in Nanjing (95% CI: 1.08%-1.16%). There were significant differences in ways of finding sexual partners, monthly income, the proportion of anal intercourse in the past 6 months, frequency of condom uses during anal sex and the proportion of recreational drug use among MSM population in different investigation methods (all P < 0.05). Conclusion The method to population size estimation grounded on the principles of the multiplier method and social app technology, and using field surveys and internet-based surveys facilitates reaching the network of MSM including hidden pockets of the group and seems to be feasible and credible.
- Men who have sex with men /
- Size estimation /
- Multiplier method /
- Social software

HTML全文

表 1 2020年5月1日―2020年5月7日南京市MSM Blued软件登录情况

Table 1. The login status of the Blued APP among MSM in Nanjing from May 1 to 7, 2020

类别	调查人数	有效问卷数	使用Blued软件		指定时间登录		乘数(m)	人均使用账户数
类别	调查人数	有效问卷数	人数	占比(%)	人数	占比(%)	乘数(m)	人均使用账户数
现场调查	198	196	160	81.63	80	40.82	2.45	1.09
网络调查	496	485	397	81.86	216	44.54	2.25	1.14
合计	694	681	557	81.79	296	43.47	2.30	1.12

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表 2 南京市不同调查方法招募的MSM社会人口学和高危行为特征

Table 2. The socio-demographic characteristics and high-risk behavior characteristics of MSM in different investigation methods in Nanjing

特征	现场调查(n=196)		网络调查(n=485)		调查人数(n=681)		χ²/t值	P值
特征	人数	占比(%)	人数	占比(%)	人数	占比(%)	χ²/t值	P值
平均年龄[(x±s), 岁]	30.43±9.38		29.77±8.96		29.97±9.08		0.889	0.375
年龄(岁)							2.815	0.245
＜25	57	29.08	133	27.42	190	27.90
25~ < 50	128	65.31	337	69.48	465	68.28
≥50	11	5.61	15	3.10	26	3.82
婚姻状况							0.271	0.603
未婚、离异或丧偶	168	85.71	408	84.12	576	84.58
在婚或同居	28	14.29	77	15.88	105	15.42
在本地居住时间(月)							2.243	0.134
＜3	27	13.78	90	18.56	117	17.18
≥3	169	86.22	395	81.44	564	82.82
文化程度							0.212	0.645
大专以下	58	29.59	135	27.84	193	28.34
大专及以上	138	70.41	350	72.16	488	71.66
性取向							2.613	0.106
同性恋	138	70.41	310	63.92	448	65.79
其他	58	29.59	175	36.08	233	34.21
寻找性伴的主要场所							25.592	< 0.001
浴池/公园/公厕/其他	11	5.61	108	22.27	119	17.47
酒吧/舞厅/会所	39	19.90	59	12.16	98	14.39
互联网/社交软件	146	74.49	318	65.57	464	68.14
职业							0.041	0.840
学生	27	13.78	64	13.20	91	13.36
非学生	169	86.22	421	86.80	590	86.64
月收入(元)							10.659	0.001
≤3 000	33	16.84	140	28.87	173	25.40
＞3 000	163	83.16	345	71.13	508	74.60
近6个月发生同性肛交行为							42.482	< 0.001
否	10	5.10	134	27.63	144	21.15
是	186	94.90	351	72.37	537	78.85
近6个月肛交安全套使用频率^a							10.445	0.005
从未使用	5	2.69	37	10.54	42	7.82
有时使用	56	30.11	100	28.49	156	29.05
每次都用	125	67.20	214	60.97	339	63.13
是否与同性发生商业性行为^a							2.871	0.090
否	175	94.09	315	89.74	490	91.25
是	11	5.91	36	10.26	47	8.75
曾经使用过新型毒品							5.193	0.023
否	147	75.00	319	66.05	466	68.63
是	49	25.00	164	33.95	213	31.37
注：^a近6个月肛交安全套使用频率和是否与同性发生商业性行为的调查对象为近6个月发生同性肛交的调查对象。

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