2017―2019年江西省流行性感冒时空聚集性分析

傅伟杰; 丁晟; 程慧健; 胡茂红; 章承峰

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.01.014

2017―2019年江西省流行性感冒时空聚集性分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.01.014

1.
330029 南昌，江西省疾病预防控制中心传染病防治所
2.
330038 南昌，南昌市疾病预防控制中心科教信息科

基金项目:

江西省科技厅重点研发计划 20203BBGL73162

详细信息

通讯作者:
章承峰，E-mail: 490933257@qq.com

中图分类号: R181
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-02-19
- 修回日期: 2021-05-24
- 网络出版日期: 2022-01-16
- 刊出日期: 2022-01-10

Spatiotemporal clustering analysis of influenza in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2019

1.
Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Jiangxi Provincial Center for Diseases Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330029, China
2.
Department of Scientific Education Information, Nanchang Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanchang 330038, China

Funds:

General Projects of Key Plans of Jiangxi Provincial Department of Science and Technology 20203BBGL73162

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHANG Cheng-feng, E-mail: 490933257@qq.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析江西省流行性感冒的流行病学特点和时空聚集性，为流感暴发和流行预警提供依据。方法对“中国传染病监测管理信息系统”中2017―2019年江西省报告的流感病例个案信息进行描述性分析和时空聚集性分析。结果 2017―2019年江西省存在流感冬春季季节性流行高峰; 以赣南地区高发，年发病率均在全省平均发病率的2倍以上; 15岁以下人群占比逐年升高，自2017年的53.90%升至2019年的72.24%。探测到四类时空聚集区域：一类聚集区域为2018年12月19日至2019年4月25日赣南地区的16个县区(RR=9.72, LLR=15 061.27, P < 0.001)，二类聚集区域为2019年12月18日至2019年12月31日赣北地区的13个县区(RR=20.68, LLR=3 867.86, P < 0.001)，三类聚集区域为2019年1月9日至2019年3月27日赣东北地区的18个县区(RR=3.13，LLR=1 297.439，P < 0.001)，四类聚集区域为2019年12月2日至2019年12月31日赣西地区的17个县区(RR=5.09, LLR=1 233.47, P < 0.001)。结论 2017―2019年江西省流感发病呈现较明显的时空聚集性，但是不同地区的聚集时段有差异，聚集时段主要集中在冬末和春季。
- 流感 /
- 流行病学 /
- 时空扫描 /
- 时空聚集性
Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal aggregation of influenza in Jiangxi Province, and to provide the basis for influenza outbreak and epidemic early warning. Methods Descriptive epidemiological analysis and spatiotemporal clustering analysis were conducted on the influenza case information reported in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2019 in the "China Infectious Disease Surveillance and Management Information System". Results From 2017 to 2019, there was an epidemic peak in winter and spring every year in Jiangxi Province, with the highest incidence in southern Jiangxi Province. The annual incidence was more than twice of the provincial average; the proportion of people under 15 years old increased year by year, from 53.90% in 2017 to 72.24% in 2019.Retrospective spatiotemporal scanning analysis detected four types of spatiotemporal aggregation regions: the first type of agglomeration areas 16 counties and districts in southern Jiangxi Province on December 19, 2018 solstice on April 25, 2019 (RR=9.72, LLR=15 061.27, P < 0.001), the second type of clustering area were the 13 counties in the north of Jiangxi Province (RR=20.68, LLR=3 867.86, P < 0.001); the third type of clustering areas were 18 counties and districts in the northeast of Jiangxi Province (RR=3.13, LLR=1 297.439, P < 0.001); the foreh type of clustering region were 17 counties and districts in western Jiangxi on December 2, 2019 (RR=5.09, LLR=1 233.47, P < 0.001). Conclusion From 2017 to 2019, the incidence of influenza in Jiangxi Province showed obvious spatiotemporal clustering, but the clustering time was different among different regions. Influenza was mainly in the late winter and spring.
- Ifluenza /
- Epidemiology /
- Spatio-temporal scan /
- Spatiotemporal aggregation

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图 1 江西省2017―2019年流感发病月分布情况

Figure 1. Monthly distribution of influenza in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2019

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图 2 江西省2017―2019年各县区流感发病时空分布情况

Figure 2. Spatio-temporal distribution of influenza incidence in counties and districts of Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2019

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图 3 江西省2017―2019年流感发病时空聚集区域图

Figure 3. Spatio-temporal clustering map of influenza incidence in Jiangxi Province during from 2017 to 2019

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表 1 2017―2019年江西省流感发病年龄分布情况[n(%)]

Table 1. Age distribution of influenza in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2019[n(%)]

年龄(岁)	2017年	2018年	2019年
0~ < 5	3 899(30.30)	6 640(37.83)	16 479(41.18)
5~ < 10	2 238(17.39)	2 893(16.48)	9 180(22.94)
10~ < 15	799(6.21)	1 052(5.99)	3 250(8.12)
≥15	5 932(46.10)	6 967(39.69)	11 111(27.76)

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表 2 2017―2019年江西省流感发病职业分布情况[n(%)]

Table 2. Occupational distribution of influenza in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2019 [n(%)]

人群类型	2017年	2018年	2019年
散居儿童	3 187(24.77)	5 335(30.40)	12 579(31.43)
托幼儿童	1 482(11.52)	2 544(14.49)	6 961(17.39)
学生	2 623(20.38)	3 153(17.96)	10 451(26.11)
农民	3 829(29.76)	4 352(24.79)	5 384(13.45)
其他	1 747(13.57)	2 168(12.35)	4 645(11.61)

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表 3 2017―2019年江西省各县区流感发病时空扫描聚集情况

Table 3. Spatio-temporal scanning clustering of influenza incidence in various counties and districts in Jiangxi Province from 2017 to 2019

聚集类别	日期	坐标/半径(km)	人口数(人)	聚集地区	实际病例数	RR值	LLR值	P值
1	2018/12/19―2019/4/25	(24.900 552N, 115.654586 E)/171.28	7 803 140	寻乌县，安远县，定南县，会昌县，信丰县，龙南县，全南县，于都县，瑞金市，赣县区，章贡区，南康区，大余县，崇义县, 兴国县，上犹县，石城县(16个)	11 556	9.72	15 061.271	< 0.001
2	2019/12/18―2019/12/31	(29.137 579N, 115.724 396 E)/59.62	4 837 206	永修县，共青城市，德安县，庐山市，安义县，湾里区，新建区，东湖区，靖安县，青山湖区，西湖区，柴桑区，青云谱区(13个)	1 873	20.68	3 867.861	< 0.001
3	2019/01/09―2019/03/27	(28.757 479N, 118.159 153 E)/144.76	8 690 054	玉山县，信州区，上饶县，广丰区，德兴市，横峰县，婺源县，弋阳县，铅山县，乐平市，珠山区，万年县，昌江区，贵溪市, 浮梁县，月湖区，余江区，鄱阳县(18个)	2 880	3.13	1 297.439	< 0.001
4	2019/12/02―2019/12/31	(27.573 212N, 114.053 670 E)/119.57	7 194 039	芦溪县，安源区，上栗县，湘东区，袁州区，莲花县，安福县，永新县，分宜县，万载县，吉安县，渝水区，吉州区，上高县，井冈山市，峡江县，铜鼓县(17个)	1 510	5.09	1 233.474	< 0.001

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