1990—2019年中国老年人群HIV/AIDS疾病负担及其变化趋势

任宁君; 李远盛; 张雯欣; 王若兰; 范颂; 李爱玲

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.06.004

1990—2019年中国老年人群HIV/AIDS疾病负担及其变化趋势

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.06.004

646000 泸州，西南医科大学公共卫生学院社会医学教研室

基金项目:

四川性社会学与性教育研究中心立项项目 SXJYB2004

详细信息

通讯作者:
李爱玲, E-mail: 306816481@qq.com

中图分类号: R181.2
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-10-14
- 修回日期: 2022-02-18
- 网络出版日期: 2022-06-16
- 刊出日期: 2022-06-10

Disease burden and trend of HIV/AIDs among the elderly in China during 1990-2019

Department of Social Medicine, School of Public Health, Southwest Medical University, Luzhou 646000, China

Funds:

Sichuan Sexual Sociology and Sexuality Education Research Center Project SXJYB2004

More Information

Corresponding author: LI Ai-ling, E-mail: 306816481@qq.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析1990-2019年我国老年人群HIV/AIDS的感染、新发感染、死亡以及伤残调整生命年(disability-adjusted life years, DALYs)率的变化情况。方法利用全球疾病负担研究(Globe Burden of Disease Study 2019, GBD 2019)数据, 根据年龄、性别、年份对疾病负担指标进行统计描述, 并利用Joinpoint回归模型进行时间趋势分析, 计算感染、新发感染、死亡和DALYs率的年度变化百分比(annual percentage change, APC)和平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change, AAPC)。结果 1990-2019年中国老年人群HIV/AIDS的标化感染率从7.56/10⁵增至48.90/10⁵; 标化新发感染率从1.03/10⁵增至1.89/10⁵; 标化死亡率从0.35/10⁵增至2.97/10⁵; 标化DALYs率从11.01/10⁵增至90.51/10⁵。根据Joinpoint回归模型结果显示, 1990-2019年, 中国老年人群HIV/AIDS标化感染率、标化新发感染率、标化死亡率和标化DALYs率整体呈上升趋势, AAPC分别为6.71%、1.91%、7.65%和7.52%, 差异均有统计学意义(均有P < 0.05)。结论中国老年人群HIV/AIDS的疾病负担严重, 各项疾病负担指标总体呈上升趋势。应加强HIV/AIDS的早期筛查与健康教育, 根据老年人群HIV/AIDS的疾病负担特点, 制定有针对性地预防措施。
- HIV/AIDS /
- 老年 /
- 疾病负担 /
- Joinpoint回归模型
Abstract: Objective To describe and analyze the prevalence, morbidity rate, mortality rate, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rate of HIV/AIDS among the elderly in China from 1990 to 2019. Methods Data was collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019(GBD 2019). Statistical description was used to analyze disease burden indicators by age, gender, and year. Temporal trend analysis was conducted by Joinpoint regression models. Annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated for prevalence, morbidity rate, mortality rate, and DALYs rate. Results From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized prevalence of HIV/AIDS among the elderly in China increased from 7.56/10⁵ to 48.90/10⁵. The age-standardized morbidity rate increased from 1.03/10⁵ to 1.89/10⁵.The age-standardized mortality rate increased from 0.35/10⁵ to 2.97/10⁵. The DALYs rate increased from 11.01/10⁵ to 90.51/10⁵. According to the Joinpoint results, from 1990-2019, there was an overall increasing trend in the standardized prevalence, mortality rate, morbidity rate, DALYs rate of HIV/AIDS among the elderly in China, with AAPC of 6.71%, 1.91%, 7.65%, and 7.52% respectively. The differences were all statistically significant with P < 0.05. Conclusions The disease burden of HIV/AIDS among the elderly in China is still severe. The disease burden index is on the rise. Early HIV/AIDS screening and health education should be strengthened, and targeted preventive measures should be formulated according to the HIV/AIDS burden characteristics among the elderly.
- HIV/AIDS /
- Aging /
- Burden of disease /
- Joinpoint regression model

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图 1 1990—2019年老年人群HIV/AIDS标化感染率、新发感染率、死亡率和DALYs率趋势图

注：A：老年人群HIV/AIDS死亡率的变化；B：老年人群HIV/AIDS新发感染率的变化；C：老年人群HIV/AIDS感染率的变化；D：老年人群HIV/AIDS DALYs率的变化。

Figure 1. Trends in standardized HIV/AIDS prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates in the elder, 1990-2019

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图 2 1990—2019年老年人群HIV/AIDS标化感染率、新发感染率、死亡率和DALYs率趋势图

注：A：不同年龄段老年人群HIV/AIDS死亡率的变化情况；B：不同年龄段老年人群HIV/AIDS新发感染率的变化情况；C：不同年龄段老年人群HIV/AIDS感染率的变化情况；D：不同年龄段老年人群HIV/AIDS DALYs率的变化情况。

Figure 2. Trends in standardized HIV/AIDS prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs rates in the elder, 1990-2019

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表 1 1990—2019年中国老年人群HIV/AIDS疾病负担的年龄标化率(/10⁵)

Table 1. Age-standardized rates of HIV/AIDS among the elderly in China, 1990-2019(/10⁵)

分类	1990年	2019年	变化率(%)
死亡率
全人群	0.35	2.97	857.40
男性	0.50	4.54	904.12
女性	0.19	1.43	738.23
感染率
全人群	7.56	48.90	646.52
男性	11.10	71.55	644.46
女性	4.20	26.74	636.79
新发感染率
全人群	1.03	1.89	182.60
男性	1.59	3.11	195.24
女性	0.59	0.86	144.27
DALYs
全人群	11.01	90.52	822.13
男性	15.68	137.54	877.11
女性	6.33	44.54	703.30

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表 2 1990—2019年老年人群HIV/AIDS变化趋势的Joinpoint回归模型结果

Table 2. Joinpoint regression model results for trends in HIV/AIDS in elder, 1990-2019

	Joinpoint回归模型													(95% CI)值
	时期1		时期2		时期3		时期4		时期5		时期6		AAPC
	年份(年)	APC(%)	年份(年)	APC(%)	年份(年)	APC(%)	年份(年)	APC(%)	年份(年)	APC(%)	年份(年)	APC(%)	(%)
感染率
全人群	1990—1996	4.21^a	1996—1999	8.26^a	1999—2006	19.64^a	2006—2009	10.13^a	2009—2013	1.57^a	2013—2019	-3.39^a	6.71^a	6.33~7.09
男性	1990—1999	4.58^a	1999—2006	21.04^a	2006—2009	10.81^a	2009—2012	3.05^a	2012—2019	-3.22^a			6.84^a	6.49~7.19
女性	1990—1998	6.84^a	1998—2005	17.77^a	2005—2008	9.72^a	2008—2011	3.19^a	2011—2014	-0.01	2014—2019	-2.46^a	6.82^a	6.42~7.22
新发感染率
全人群	1990—1997	5.55^a	1997—2002	28.33^a	2002—2005	14.35^a	2005—2009	-4.92^a	2009—2015	-18.79^a	2015—2019	-0.91	1.91^a	0.89~2.93
男性	1990—1996	1.63	1996—2004	25.42^a	2004—2007	2.58	2007—2010	-9.71^a	2010—2015	-19.93^a	2015—2019	-0.49	1.94^a	0.91~2.97
女性	1990—1996	6.82^a	1996—2002	24.39^a	2002—2005	5.57	2005—2009	-8.14^a	2009—2014	-20.02^a	2014—2019	-2.43^a	1.03	0.00~2.05
死亡率
全人群	1990—1993	21.46^a	1993—2005	7.13^a	2005—2013	0.77	2013—2016	24.42^a	2016—2019	0.48			7.65^a	6.40~8.90
男性	1990—1993	21.22^a	1993—2005	6.59^a	2005—2013	2.65^a	2013—2016	23.60^a	2016—2019	0.40			7.94^a	6.84~9.02
女性	1990—2004	10.02^a	2004—2013	-3.28^a	2013—2016	26.13^a	2016—2019	1.38^a					6.29^a	4.99~7.59
DALYs
全人群	1990—1993	18.47^a	1993—2005	7.75^a	2005—2013	0.94^a	2013—2016	21.67^a	2016—2019	0.63			7.52^a	6.43~8.61
男性	1990—1993	18.09^a	1993—2005	7.41^a	2005—2013	2.68^a	2013—2016	21.23^a	2016—2019	0.49			7.79^a	6.80~8.78
女性	1990—2004	10.44^a	2004—2013	-2.65^a	2013—2016	22.59^a	2016—2019	1.12					6.33^a	5.18~7.48
注：^a表示APC和AAPC在α=0.05的水平上有统计学差异；时期1~6表明，模型将观察到的30年指标分为若干时期，每个时期都有各自的APC。

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