Comparative study on epidemiological characteristics and public health interventions of COVID-19 among China, South Korea, the United States and France based on the poisson regression model
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摘要:
目的 分析中国、韩国、美国和法国四国COVID-19流行特征和发展趋势，对比评价各国经济支持、遏制封锁以及卫生体系相关三类政策措施防控效果。 方法 收集中国大陆、韩国、美国及法国每日报告新增确诊COVID-19病例数、每日综合政策指数及具体措施指标，考虑政策效果的滞后作用，建立泊松回归模型估计每日实时再生数(time-dependent reproduction number, Rt)，利用log-log时变系数回归模型对比各国政策措施的防控效果。 结果 遏制封锁和卫生体系相关政策措施与Rt存在负相关，且随滞后时间增大，累计滞后效应减弱，经济支持相关政策仅在美、法两国与Rt存在负相关。美、法两国政策对Rt的效应弱于中、韩两国。 结论 遏制封锁和卫生体系相关政策对降低Rt，控制疫情具有较大效应，疫情初期采取及时有力的综合性阻断措施相比于缓解政策措施具有更好的疫情防控效果。 Abstract:Objective To analyze the trend of COVID-19 epidemic and to comparatively evaluate effects of economic policies, containment and closure policies and health system policies in China, South Korea, the United States (US) and France. Methods Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and daily comprehensive policy index, specific indicators in mainland China, South Korea, US and France were collected. Considering the lag effect of policy effects, poisson regression model was established to estimate the daily real-time regeneration (Rt), and the log-log model with variable coefficient was used to compare the prevention and control effects of policies and measures in different countries. Results Containment and closure policies and health system policies were negatively correlated with Rt, and the cumulative lag effect weakens with the increase of lag time. Economic policies were negatively correlated with Rt only in US and France. The effect of American and French policies on Rt was weaker than that of China and South Korea. Conclusion Containment and closure policies and health system policies have a great effect on reducing Rt and controlling the epidemic, the timely and powerful comprehensive blockade measures at the early stage of the epidemic have better effects than mitigation measures. -
Key words:
- COVID-19 /
- Poisson regression /
- Policy evalution /
- Risk evaluation
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图 1 中国、韩国、美国和法国COVID-19每日新发报告病例数走势对比
Figure 1. Trend of reported newly cases of COVID-19 in mainland China, South Korea, the USA and France during the study period
图 2 中国、韩国、美国和法国政府综合响应指数、封锁与卫生指数及管控政策指数与log Rt的时间趋势
Figure 2. Time trajectories of government response index, containment and health index, and stringency index and reported number of daily new cases on a base-10 logarithmic scale in mainland China, South Korea, the USA and France.
图 3 中国、韩国、美国和法国政府综合响应指数、封锁与卫生指数及管控政策指数的时变回归系数
Figure 3. Time-varying coefficients in the log-log time-varying of government response index, containment and health index and stringency index for mainland China, South Korea, the USA and France
图 4 中国、韩国、美国和法国政府综合响应指数下具体措施指标的逐步回归效应系数
Figure 4. Stepwise regressions coefficients of policy indicators in government response index for mainland China, South Korea, the USA and France
表 1 OxCGRT综合政策响应指数及其具体措施指标
Table 1. OxCGRT comprehensive policy response index and its specific measures
变量 政策名称 政府综合响应指数 封锁与卫生指数 管控政策指数 C1 关闭学校 √ √ √ C2 关闭工作场所 √ √ √ C3 取消公共活动 √ √ √ C4 限制聚集 √ √ √ C5 限制公共交通 √ √ √ C6 居家令 √ √ √ C7 限制国内流动 √ √ √ C8 限制国际流动 √ √ √ E1 收入补助 √ × × E2 家庭债务/合同减免 √ × × E3 财政措施 × × × E4 向他国提供支持 × × × H1 公布疫情信息 √ √ √ H2 核酸检测 √ √ × H3 密接追踪 √ √ × H4 紧急投资医疗保健 × × × H5 疫苗相关支出 × × × H6 佩戴口罩 √ √ × H7 疫苗政策 √ √ × H8 保护老年人 √ √ × 
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