中国老年人口健康预期寿命性别差异多元变化趋势的研究：2020―2050年

郭帅; 罗雅楠; 郑晓瑛

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.02.013

中国老年人口健康预期寿命性别差异多元变化趋势的研究：2020―2050年

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.02.013

郭帅^{1, 4},
罗雅楠²,
郑晓瑛^{3, 4, ,}

1.
100871 北京，北京大学人口研究所
2.
100191 北京，北京大学公共卫生学院全球卫生学系
3.
100073 北京，中国医学科学院/北京协和医学院群医学及公共卫生学院
4.
100871 北京，北京大学亚太经合组织健康科学研究院

基金项目:

国家社会科学基金重大项目 21ZD107

国家科技重大专项 SQ2022YFC3600291

详细信息

通讯作者:
郑晓瑛，E-mail: zhengxiaoying@sph.pumc.edu.cn

中图分类号: R195.3
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-05-04
- 修回日期: 2022-09-22
- 网络出版日期: 2023-02-20
- 刊出日期: 2023-02-10

Diversity trend of sex differences in disability-free life expectancy among older adults in China from 2020 to 2050

GUO Shuai^{1, 4},
LUO Ya-nan²,
ZHENG Xiao-ying^{3, 4
, ,}

1.
Institute of Population Research, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
2.
Department of Global Health, School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing 100191, China
3.
School of Population Medicine and Public Health, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences/Peking Union Medical College, Beijing 100073, China
4.
PUK-APEC Health Science Academy (HeSAY), Beijing 100871, China

Funds:

National Social Science Foundation of China (Major Program) 21ZD107

National Science and Technology Major Project SQ2022YFC3600291

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHENG Xiao-ying, E-mail: zhengxiaoying@sph.pumc.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 目的分析2020―2050年中国老年人口健康预期寿命(health expectancy，HE)及其性别差异的变化趋势，为中国人口长寿和健康之间的关系及其性别差异在未来的发展趋势提供证据和线索。方法基于2010年人口普查数据和1987年、2006年全国残疾人抽样调查数据，使用多状态人口预测模型(population-development-environment Analysis, PDE)和流行病学计算方法预测了死亡率和残疾率。使用Sullivan方法估计了2020―2050年50岁及以上人口分性别、年龄的无残疾预期寿命(disability-free life expectancy, DFLE)和伴随残疾预期寿命(life expectancy with disability, LwD)。结果中国老年人口的预期寿命(life expectancy，LE)在2020―2050年持续上升。其中，女性中LE的上升由LwD的上升所主导，而男性中DFLE的贡献略高。在75岁以下的女性和65岁以下的男性中呈现“功能残障扩张”且男性中更不明显；整个研究期间，80岁及以上女性的余寿中会有超过一半的时间伴随残疾度过，占比高于男性。女性的DFLE高于男性，绝对性别差异整体上随时期缩小，但在高龄老人中相对保持稳定；女性DLFE的占比低于男性，在2040年之后相对差异开始缩小，且在高龄老人中更明显。结论未来中国老年人口的功能状况可能会不断恶化。虽然在2040年之后DFLE的相对性别差异开始缩小，但这建立在LwD占比较高的情况下。在重点关注女性高龄老年人的功能状况的同时，应尽快建立起完备的长期照护体系。
- 健康预期寿命 /
- 性别差异 /
- 多元变化轨迹
Abstract: Objective To analyze the trends in health expectancy and its gender differences among older adults in China from 2020 to 2050, and to provide evidence and clues for the relationship between longevity and health and its sex differences in the future. Methods Based on the 2010 Census, and the National Sample Surveys on Disability in 1987 and 2006, population-development environment model (PDE) and epidemiological methods (EPI) were used to predict mortality and disability rates. The Sullivan method was used to estimate age-sex-specific disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and life expectancy with disability (LwD) for the population 50 years and older between 2020 and 2050. Results Life expectancy (LE) among older adults continues to increase. The rise in LE was primarily driven by the increase in LwD for women, while for men, the contribution of the increase in DFLE was higher. Expansion of morbidity was found in women under 75 years old and men under 65 years of age and was less pronounced in men. Women aged 80 years and older will spend more than half of their remaining life with disability, which is larger than men. Women had a higher DFLE presented than men, the absolute sex gaps in DFLE presented narrow over time but remain relatively stable among the oldest-old. By contrast, as for the relative terms, the DFLE was lower in women than in men, and the sex gaps will narrow after 2040 and become more pronounced among the oldest-old. Conclusions The functional status of older adults in China will deteriorate in the future. The relative sex differences in DFLE will narrow after 2040 under the scenario of the high proportions of LE with disability. It should establish a comprehensive long-term care system as soon as possible, and pay more attention to the functional ability of women female oldest old.
- Health expectancy /
- Sex difference /
- Multivariable trajectory

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图 1 2020―2050年50岁及以上人群分性别-年龄别无残疾预期寿命占比和伴随残疾预期寿命占比的变化趋势

Figure 1. Age-specific proportion of life disability-free/with disability for People aged 50 and over, 2020-2050

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2020―2050年预期寿命、无残疾预期寿命和伴随残疾预期寿命的性别差异

Figure 2. Female-male difference (in absolute number of years) in LE, DFLE, and LwD, 2020-2050

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2020―2050年无残疾预期寿命、伴随残疾预期寿命占比的性别差异

Figure 3. Female/male rations of the proportion (%) of life disability-free/with disability, 2020-2050

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2020―2050年50岁及以上女性年龄别预期寿命、无残疾预期寿命和伴随预期寿命

Table 1. Age-specific LE, DFLE, and LwD for women aged 50 and over, 2020-2050

年龄组	年份(年)							2020―2050年增量(年)
年龄组	2020	2025	2030	2035	2040	2045	2050	2020―2050年增量(年)
预期寿命(岁)
50~＜55	34.1	35.9	37.4	38.9	40.4	42.0	43.7	9.6
55~＜60	29.5	31.3	32.7	34.1	35.7	37.2	38.9	9.4
60~＜65	25.0	26.8	28.1	29.5	31.0	32.5	34.2	9.2
65~＜70	20.7	22.4	23.7	25.1	26.6	28.0	29.5	8.8
70~＜75	16.7	18.4	19.5	20.8	22.1	23.6	25.1	8.4
75~＜80	13.2	14.7	15.8	17.0	18.2	19.5	21.0	7.8
80~＜85	10.2	11.7	12.6	13.6	14.7	16.0	17.3	7.1
≥85	8.2	9.6	10.5	11.5	12.7	13.9	15.2	7.0
无残疾预期寿命(岁)
50~＜55	26.9	28.0	28.2	28.0	28.1	29.1	29.5	2.6
55~＜60	22.3	23.4	23.7	23.5	23.5	24.6	25.1	2.8
60~＜65	18.0	19.0	19.4	19.4	19.5	20.5	21.1	3.1
65~＜70	13.9	14.9	15.2	15.3	15.6	16.6	17.1	3.1
70~＜75	10.2	11.2	11.4	11.5	11.9	13.2	13.6	3.4
75~＜80	7.1	8.0	8.5	8.4	8.7	10.1	10.7	3.6
80~＜85	4.7	5.3	5.6	5.9	5.8	7.1	7.7	3.0
≥85	2.6	3.2	3.3	3.3	3.5	4.5	4.9	2.3
伴随残疾预期寿命(岁)
50~＜55	7.2	8.0	9.2	10.9	12.4	12.9	14.2	7.0
55~＜60	7.2	7.9	9.0	10.7	12.1	12.6	13.8	6.6
60~＜65	7.0	7.7	8.7	10.1	11.5	12.1	13.0	6.0
65~＜70	6.8	7.5	8.5	9.7	11.0	11.4	12.5	5.7
70~＜75	6.6	7.2	8.1	9.3	10.2	10.4	11.5	5.0
75~＜80	6.1	6.8	7.3	8.6	9.5	9.4	10.3	4.2
80~＜85	5.5	6.4	7.0	7.8	8.9	8.9	9.6	4.1
≥85	5.5	6.4	7.2	8.2	9.1	9.4	10.3	4.8

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2020―2050年50岁及以上男性年龄别预期寿命、无残疾预期寿命和伴随预期寿命

Table 2. Age-specific LE, DFLE, and LwD for men aged 50 and over, 2020-2050

年龄组	年份(年)							2020―2050年增量(年)
年龄组	2020	2025	2030	2035	2040	2045	2050	2020―2050年增量(年)
预期寿命(岁)
50~＜55	28.3	29.4	30.6	31.8	33.2	34.7	36.3	8.0
55~＜60	24.0	25.1	26.2	27.4	28.8	30.2	31.8	7.7
60~＜65	20.0	21.1	22.1	23.3	24.5	26.0	27.5	7.4
65~＜70	16.3	17.2	18.2	19.3	20.5	21.9	23.4	7.1
70~＜75	12.9	13.8	14.7	15.7	16.9	18.2	19.6	6.7
75~＜80	10.0	10.8	11.6	12.5	13.7	14.9	16.2	6.3
80~＜85	7.6	8.3	9.1	10.0	11.0	12.2	13.5	6.0
≥85	6.0	6.7	7.5	8.3	9.3	10.5	11.8	5.8
无残疾预期寿命(岁)
50~＜55	23.5	24.4	25.1	25.8	26.6	27.1	27.8	4.3
55~＜60	19.2	20.1	20.9	21.5	22.3	22.8	23.5	4.3
60~＜65	15.2	16.1	16.9	17.6	18.4	18.8	19.6	4.3
65~＜70	11.6	12.3	13.1	13.8	14.7	15.0	15.6	4.1
70~＜75	8.4	9.2	9.8	10.6	11.5	12.0	12.6	4.2
75~＜80	6.0	6.7	7.5	8.0	8.8	9.4	10.2	4.2
80~＜85	4.4	4.7	5.4	6.2	6.6	7.0	7.8	3.5
≥85	3.3	3.5	3.9	4.6	5.1	5.3	5.5	2.3
伴随残疾预期寿命(岁)
50~＜55	4.8	5.0	5.4	6.0	6.6	7.6	8.5	3.7
55~＜60	4.9	5.0	5.4	5.9	6.5	7.4	8.3	3.4
60~＜65	4.8	5.0	5.2	5.6	6.2	7.2	7.9	3.1
65~＜70	4.7	4.9	5.2	5.5	5.9	6.9	7.7	3.0
70~＜75	4.5	4.5	4.8	5.1	5.4	6.2	7.0	2.5
75~＜80	4.0	4.1	4.1	4.6	4.9	5.5	6.1	2.1
80~＜85	3.2	3.6	3.7	3.8	4.3	5.2	5.7	2.5
≥85	2.7	3.2	3.5	3.8	4.2	5.2	6.3	3.5

下载: 导出CSV

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