中国4种儿童易感传染病传播特性的分析

翟夏菲; 韩世峰; 赵继军

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.03.002

中国4种儿童易感传染病传播特性的分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.03.002

266071 青岛，青岛大学自动化学院复杂性科学研究所

基金项目:

山东省自然科学基金 ZR2018MH037

详细信息

通讯作者:
赵继军，E-mail: jjzhao@qdu.edu.cn

中图分类号: R511;R515;R181
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-07-19
- 修回日期: 2022-11-26
- 网络出版日期: 2023-04-04
- 刊出日期: 2023-03-10

Analysis of the transmission characteristics of four childhood infectious diseases in China

Institute of Complexity Science, School of Automation, Qingdao University, Qingdao 266071, China

Funds:

Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation ZR2018MH037

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHAO Ji-jun, E-mail: jjzhao@qdu.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 目的了解4种传染病发病数的周期性、传染率及其季节性的变化模式，为4种传染病的防控提供理论支持。方法选取百日咳、猩红热、风疹、腮腺炎这4种有代表性的儿童易感传染病作为研究对象，分别建立时间序列易感者-感染者-恢复者(time series susceptible infected recovered, TSIR)模型，使用马尔科夫蒙特卡洛方法估计模型中的参数，分析这4种传染病传染率的季节性模式；根据不同传染病传染率的季节性模式，采取针对性控制措施，分析对未来发病数的影响效果。结果 4种传染病的传染率呈季节性变化，最低传染率均发生在7―8月，猩红热、风疹、腮腺炎的最高传染率发生在2―3月。传染率季节性受学生放假、春运影响。有无免疫实施不影响传染率的季节性模式。传染率季节性与病原体的异同存在关联性。结论 4种儿童易感传染病的传染率均具有季节性变化的特点，相应的季节性防控措施对减少发病数更为有效。
- 百日咳 /
- 猩红热 /
- 风疹 /
- 腮腺炎 /
- 时间序列易感者-感染者-恢复者模型 /
- 传播特性
Abstract: Objective This research aimed to understand the periodical pattern, transmission rate, and seasonality of four childhood infectious diseases, and to provide theoretical support for prevention and control. Methods We selected four typical childhood infectious diseases, including pertussis, scarlet fever, rubella, and mumps, as research objects. And established time series susceptible infected recovered (TSIR) model respectively for four diseases. The Markov chain Monte Carlo methods were used to estimate the parameters of TSIR models and analyze the seasonal patterns of the transmission rate. According to the seasonal pattern of different infectious diseases' transmission rates, targeted prevention and control measures were adopted to analyze the effect on the number of future cases. Results The transmission rates of the four infectious diseases showed seasonal changes. The lowest transmission rates occured from July to August. The highest transmission rates of scarlet fever, rubella, and mump were from February to March. The transmission rate was affected seasonally by school holidays and the Spring Festival period. Having or not having immunization implementation did not affect the seasonal pattern of the transmission rate. The seasonality of transmission rate was related to the types of pathogens. Conclusions The transmission rates of the four childhood infectious diseases are characterized by seasonal changes. It is more effective to consider seasonality when implementing prevention and control measures to reduce the number of cases.
- Pertussis /
- Scarlet fever /
- Rubella /
- Mumps /
- Time series susceptible infected recovered model /
- Transmission characteristics

HTML全文

图 1 4种传染病报告发病数的周期性特征

Figure 1. Periodicity characteristics of the number of reported cases of four infectious diseases

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 4种传染病每月传染率的变化模式

注：图A~D为4种疾病每月传染率的估计值。图中上下横条为(95% CI)值，参考教育厅发布的寒暑假通知大致确定每年寒假及春运(灰色阴影)和暑假(黄色阴影)的时间范围。

Figure 2. Patterns of monthly transmission rates of four infectious diseases

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 降低传染率后模型仿真发病数的动态变化

Figure 3. Dynamics of model simulation incidence after reduction of transmission rate

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 TSIR模型中的参数估计结果

Table 1. Parameter estimation results in the TSIR model

估计参数	百日咳	猩红热	风疹	腮腺炎
β₀	2.64×10^-8	4.08×10^-8	1.35×10^-8	1.91×10^-8
β_1max	35.6%	68.6%	172.0%	44.1%
β₂	49.2%	63.8%	78.7%	50.4%
R_n	1.24	1.05	1.20	1.70
S(95% CI)值	0.041(0.030~0.049)	0.056(0.054~0.058)	0.086(0.076~0.096)	0.095(0.089~0.100)
ρ(95% CI)值	0.007 0(0.006 0~0.008 0)	0.002 5(0.001 9~0.002 8)	0.070 0(0.057 0~0.088 0)	0.140 0(0.135 0~0.147 0)
注：β₀、β_1max、β₂、R_n、S、ρ分别为传染率均值、传染率偏离均值的最大幅度、传染率偏离中间值幅度、平均有效再生数、平均易感者比例、报告率。

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