BMI, WC, and waist-hip ratio and the risk of death in type 2 diabetes mellitus: a cohort study
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摘要:
目的 了解淮安市2型糖尿病(diabetes mellitus type 2,T2DM)患者不同肥胖指标对其死亡风险的影响。 方法 将淮安市2013年1月1日―2020年12月31日队列随访的9 759例T2DM患者与死因监测平台进行匹配,确定死亡病例。根据BMI、WC、腰臀比(waist-to-hip ratio,WHR)对随访人群进行分组,采用Cox比例风险模型探究肥胖指标对于T2DM患者全死因死亡风险。随后采用敏感性分析,剔除吸烟人群、随访第1年死亡者、基线患心脑血管病者后分析全死因死亡风险情况。 结果 不同年龄、WC、WHR及其他指标的人群BMI差异均有统计学意义(均有P<0.05)。且调整混杂因素后发现,在超重和肥胖人群与正常人群相比死亡风险分别下降17%和27%,差异均有统计学意义(均有P<0.05)。患者WC与非中心性肥胖相比,中心性肥胖前期和中心性肥胖时期均可以降低死亡风险,不同WHR人群死亡风险差异无统计学意义。 结论 目前死亡风险存在“肥胖悖论”现象,研究发现超重和肥胖人群以及中心性肥胖前期死亡风险具有保护作用。 Abstract:Objective To investigate the effects of different obesity indicators on the risk of death in diabetes mellitus type 2 (T2DM) patients in Huai 'an City. Methods A total of 9 759 T2DM patients were followed up in Huai 'an City from 2013 to 2020, and the cause of death was matched through the cause of death monitoring platform. The follow-up population was classified according to BMI, WC, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and Cox proportional risk model was adopted to explore the effect of obesity indicators on all-cause mortality risk of T2DM patients. Sensitivity analysis was then used to exclude smokers, those with less than three years of follow-up, and those who died in the first year of follow-up, and baseline patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular risk for all-cause mortality. Results The research results indicated the BMI groups in different age, WC, WHR and other indexes were different (P < 0.05). After adjusting for confounding factors, it was found that the risk of death decreased by 17% and 27% in overweight and obese people compared with normal people, respectively, with statistical significance (P < 0.05). Compared with non-central obesity, the waist circumference of patients with central obesity can reduce the risk of death in both pre-central obesity and central obesity, and there was no statistical significance in the risk of death among people with different WHR ratios. Conclusions The "obesity paradox" exists in the risk of death. It is found that BMI has a protective effect on the risk of death in overweight and obesity, as well as in the early stage of central obesity. -
Key words:
- Diabetes type 2 /
- Baby Mass Index /
- Waist circumference /
- Risk of death
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表 1 不同BMI和WC人群基线特征[n(%)]
Table 1. Baseline characteristics of participants with different BMI and WC [n(%)]
变量及分类 BMI F/χ2值 P值 腰围分组 F/χ2值 P值 正常 低体重 超重 肥胖 非中心性肥胖 中心性肥胖前期 中心性肥胖 人数(n) 2 804(28.9) 117(1.2) 4 341(44.7) 2 454(25.3) 2 742(28.2) 1 952(20.1) 5 022(51.7) 性别(男) 1 041(37.1) 32(27.4) 1 682(38.7) 917(37.4) 7.83 0.044 1 240(45.2) 725(37.1) 1 707(34.0) 95.61 0.013 年龄(x±s, 岁) 61.93±10.18 63.67±10.16 61.33±10.02 61.41±10.03 3.96 < 0.001 61.22±10.31 60.69±9.95 62.07±9.96 15.33 < 0.001 静态行为时间[M(P75, P25), h/d] 2.5 (1.7, 4.0) 3.0 (2.0, 4.0) 3.0 (2.0, 4.2) 3.0 (2.0, 4.8) 2.27 0.007 2.5 (1.5, 4.0) 3.0 (2.0, 4.0) 3.0 (2.0, 5.0) 8.25 < 0.001 血糖 9.17±4.75 10.01±6.30 8.82±3.96 8.62±3.46 11.15 < 0.001 9.08±4.84 8.98±4.40 8.74±3.56 6.85 0.001 HbA1C 7.87±2.32 8.19±2.89 7.72±1.90 7.78±1.80 4.78 < 0.001 7.78±2.32 7.76±2.02 7.80±1.84 0.28 0.759 吸烟 14.73 0.002 43.85 < 0.001 是 888(31.7) 42(35.9) 1 268(29.2) 669(27.3) 943(34.4) 543(27.8) 1 381(27.5) 饮酒 16.83 0.001 2.61 0.271 是 415(14.8) 14(12.0) 792(18.3) 427(17.4) 489(17.8) 314(16.1) 845(16.8) 文化程度 40.30 < 0.001 2.05 0.359 未接受正规教育 1 208(43.3) 71(60.7) 1 702(39.5) 1 003(41.1) 1 106(40.6) 787(40.6) 2 091(41.9) 小学 789(28.3) 30(25.6) 1 203(27.9) 703(28.8) 843(30.9) 527(27.2) 1 355(27.2) 初中 517(18.5) 14(12.0) 871(20.2) 500(20.5) 525(19.3) 418(21.5) 959(19.2) 高中及以上 276(9.9) 2(1.7) 531(12.3) 232(9.5) 250(9.2) 208(10.7) 583(11.7) 婚姻状况 39.43 < 0.001 18.48 < 0.001 在婚 2 309(82.9) 95(81.9) 3 791(88.0) 2 109(86.7) 2 278(83.7) 1 686(87.0) 4 340(87.1) 家庭年收入(万元) 33.80 < 0.001 44.57 < 0.001 <1 738(26.5) 50(42.7) 1 022(23.7) 563(23.1) 772(28.4) 454(23.4) 1 147(23.0) 1~3 1 035(37.1) 42(35.9) 1 601(37.2) 912(37.4) 1 028(37.8) 741(38.2) 1 821(36.5) 4~10 921(33.0) 22(18.8) 1 508(35.0) 869(35.7) 842(31.0) 671(34.6) 1 807(36.2) >10 93(3.3) 3(2.6) 175(4.1) 93(3.8) 78(2.9) 75(3.9) 211(4.2) 糖尿病病程(年) 5.09 0.165 19.42 < 0.001 < 2 829(29.6) 34(29.1) 1 256(28.9) 748(30.5) 870(31.7) 595(30.5) 1 402(27.9) 2~4 771(27.5) 27(23.1) 1 293(29.8) 729(29.7) 789(28.8) 575(29.5) 1 456(29.0) 5~9 649(23.1) 31(26.5) 1 002(23.1) 549(22.4) 632(23.0) 434(22.2) 1 165(23.2) ≥10 555(19.8) 25(21.4) 790(18.2) 428(17.4) 451(16.4) 348(17.8) 999(19.9) 高血压 356.59 < 0.001 243.87 < 0.001 是 1 685(60.3) 54(46.2) 3 109(71.8) 2 028(82.7) 1 655(60.5) 1 348(69.2) 3 873(77.3) 血脂异常 312.19 < 0.001 324.40 < 0.001 是 1 159(41.3) 25(21.4) 2 422(55.8) 1 545(63.0) 1 078(39.3) 1 028(52.7) 3 045(60.7) 冠心病 49.65 < 0.001 35.42 < 0.001 是 208(7.4) 9(7.7) 436(10.0) 354(14.4) 195(7.1) 164(8.4) 648(12.9) 脑卒中 27.71 < 0.001 10.89 0.004 是 317(11.3) 2(1.7) 570(13.1) 373(15.2) 304(11.1) 245(12.6) 713(14.2) 表 2 BMI对死亡风险的Cox回归模型分析
Table 2. Cox regression model of BMI and death risk
BMI 死亡人数(n) 随访人年 死亡密度(‰) 死亡率(%) 模型1 模型2 模型3 HR(95% CI)值 P值 HR(95% CI)值 P值 HR(95% CI)值 P值 正常 448 217 078 2.06 1.59 1.00 1.00 1.00 低体重 32 8 669 3.69 2.74 1.80(1.26~2.58) < 0.001 1.55(1.07~2.23) 0.020 1.61(1.12~2.33) 0.010 超重 532 344 194 1.54 1.23 0.75(0.66~0.85) < 0.001 0.83(0.73~0.94) < 0.001 0.80(0.71~0.91) < 0.001 肥胖 276 196 854 1.40 1.12 0.68(0.58~0.79) < 0.001 0.74(0.64~0.87) < 0.001 0.71(0.60~0.82) < 0.001 注:死亡率为死亡人数/BMI各组人数。模型1为未调整混杂因素前,BMI对于患者死亡风险的风险比;模型2为调整性别、年龄、文化程度、婚姻状况、家庭年收入、静态行为时间、吸烟、饮酒等的风险情况;模型3为在模型2基础上、调整FPG、HbA1C、糖尿病治疗率、糖尿病病程、高血压、脑卒中、血脂异常、冠心病等因素。Pearson相关分析显示BMI与WC相关性较强(r=0.77),故不同时纳入研究中。 表 3 WC和WHP对死亡风险的Cox回归模型分析
Table 3. Cox regression analysis of WC and the WHP circumference on mortality risk
变量 死亡人数 随访人年 死亡密度(‰) 死亡率(%) 模型1 模型2 模型3 HR(95% CI)值 P值 HR(95% CI)值 P值 HR(95% CI)值 P值 WC分组 非中心性肥胖 438 212 946 1.06 1.60 1.00 1.00 1.00 中心性肥胖前期 200 156 134 1.28 1.02 0.62(0.53~0.73) < 0.001 0.71(0.60~0.84) < 0.001 0.67(0.57~0.80) < 0.001 中心性肥胖 650 397 973 1.63 1.29 0.80(0.70~0.90) < 0.001 0.84(0.74~0.95) 0.010 0.78(0.69~0.89) < 0.001 WHP 非中心性肥胖 459 258 966 1.77 1.39 1.00 1.00 1.00 中心性肥胖 829 508 087 1.63 1.29 0.92(0.82~1.03) 0.150 0.98(0.87~1.11) 0.980 0.93(0.82~1.04) 0.200 注:死亡率:死亡人数/WC(WHP)各组人数。模型调整同表 2。 -
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