Study on the influence of COVID-19 epidemic to hand, foot and mouth disease based on intervention analysis model
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摘要:
目的 利用苏州市某区近年来儿童手足口病(hand, foot and mouth disease, HFMD)发病数据建立预测模型，判断HFMD发病变化趋势，以及推测COVID-19疫情防控对HFMD的影响。 方法 根据2009年1月―2019年12月的儿童HFMD监测数据库，利用季节性自回归移动平均(seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average，SARIMA)模型建立HFMD数据预测模型，预测2020年1―10月的发病数，将实际值与预测值进行比较，确定HFMD发病的变化。在最佳SARIMA模型中加入干预变量，确定COVID-19疫情对儿童HFMD发病的影响。 结果 与2019年同期儿童HFMD发病情况相比，2020年1―10月发病数均有下降。2020年1―10月儿童HFMD的发病实际趋势与预测趋势差别较大，发病实际值均低于预测值，2020年2―9月的偏离度均超过100%。在SARIMA模型中加入干预变量后分析显示，干预变量的系数为-135.4(P=0.010)，说明儿童HFMD的发病例数平均每月减少135例。 结论 苏州市某区在2020年1―10月的儿童HFMD发病数低于历史同期，推断COVID-19疫情发生以来，应急响应期间严格防控措施和常态化防控措施在有效控制COVID-19疫情的同时，也抑制了儿童HFMD的发生。 -
关键词:
- 新型冠状病毒肺炎 /
- 季节性自回归移动平均模型 /
- 手足口病
Abstract:Objective To establish a prediction model based on the incidence data of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) among children in a district of Suzhou in recent years, to judge the trend of HFMD incidence, and to predict the impact of COVID-19 prevention and control on HFMD. Methods Based on the HFMD surveillance database from January 2009 to December 2019, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was selected to establish the HFMD data prediction model to predict the number of HFMD cases from January to October 2020. The differentials between the actual values and the predicted values were compared to confirm the change of HFMD incidence. Intervention variables were added in the optimal SARIMA model to determine the impact of COVID-19 on the incidence of HFMD in children. Results Compared with the incidence of HFMD in the same period of 2019, the incidence of HFMD in children decreased from January to October in 2020. The actual and predicted incidence trends of HFMD in children from January to October in 2020 were significantly different, and the actual case numbers were all lower than those in the prediction, and the deviation degrees from February to September in 2020 were all more than 100%. After adding intervention variables in the SARIMA model, the coefficient of intervention variables was -135.4 (P=0.010), suggesting that the incidence of HFMD in children decreased by about 135 cases per month on average. Conclusions The incidence of HFMD in children in a district of Suzhou from January to October in 2020 was lower than that in the historical period. It is inferred that strict and normalized prevention and control measures have not only effectively controlled the outbreak of COVID-19, but also affected the incidence of HFMD in children. -
图 1 苏州市某区2009年1月―2020年10月儿童HFMD发病情况趋势图
Figure 1. Prevalence trend of HFMD among children in a district of Suzhou from January 2009 to October 2020
图 2 苏州市某区2020年1―10月儿童HFMD的发病趋势预测
Figure 2. Prediction of the incidence trend of HFMD among children in a district of Suzhou from January to October in 2020
表 1 苏州市某区2009年1月―2020年10月儿童HFMD发病总体情况(例)
Table 1. Overall incidence of HFMD among children in a district of Suzhou from January 2009 to October 2020 (n)
年份(年) 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 11月 12月 合计 2009 3 2 29 51 57 110 121 67 52 88 54 25 659 2010 15 10 30 48 64 135 127 31 61 36 17 16 590 2011 9 7 5 27 76 205 286 93 114 152 166 69 1 209 2012 18 19 33 62 151 218 103 18 27 9 66 41 765 2013 38 31 81 83 75 148 84 31 42 38 33 43 727 2014 7 6 20 68 111 158 183 135 260 182 95 82 1 307 2015 33 13 25 58 128 214 139 53 46 47 82 83 921 2016 36 11 22 62 275 553 332 95 92 160 202 139 1 979 2017 43 22 13 55 98 171 180 52 57 92 171 204 1 158 2018 62 11 45 142 370 561 534 301 352 199 59 73 2 709 2019 50 20 30 69 130 432 389 88 117 91 54 40 1 510 2020 14 0 1 1 7 3 5 16 53 87 
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表 2 苏州市某区2020年1―10月与2019年同期儿童HFMD发病情况比较(例)
Table 2. Comparison of the incidence of HFMD among children in a district of Suzhou from January to October in 2020 and the same period in 2019 (n)
年份(年) 1月 2月 3月 4月 5月 6月 7月 8月 9月 10月 2019 50 20 30 69 130 432 389 88 117 91 2020 14 0 1 1 7 3 5 16 53 87 同期增长率(%) -72.00 -100.00 -96.67 -98.55 -94.62 -99.31 -98.71 -81.82 -54.70 -4.40
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表 3 拟合优度统计量表
Table 3. Goodness of fit statistical scale
参数 SARIMA(1, 0, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 SARIMA(1, 0, 0)(0, 1, 1)12 SARIMA(1, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 SARIMA(1, 1, 0)(0, 1, 1)12 平稳R2 0.762 0.73 0.383 0.349 正态化BIC 8.222 8.297 8.444 8.448
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表 4 苏州市某区2020年1―10月儿童HFMD的发病实际情况与预测情况比较
Table 4. Comparison of actual and predicted incidence of HFMD in children in a district of Suzhou from January to October in 2020
月份
(月)实际值
(例)预测值
(例)差值
(例)偏离度(%) 1 14 12 2 14.29 2 0 21 -21 ― 3 1 52 -51 -5 100.00 4 1 108 -107 -10 700.00 5 7 214 -207 -2 957.14 6 3 394 -391 -13 033.33 7 5 347 -342 -6 840.00 8 16 156 -140 -875.00 9 53 183 -130 -245.28 10 87 155 -68 -78.16 合计 187 1 642 -1 455 -778.07
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表 5 加入干预变量后的SARIMA模型参数检验结果
Table 5. Test results of SARIMA model parameters after add intervention variables
参数 估计值 sx t值 P值 MU 8.494 84 4.460 46 1.90 0.059 MA1, 1 -0.454 94 0.102 76 -4.43 < 0.001 MA2, 1 0.801 19 0.060 64 13.21 < 0.001 AR1, 1 0.525 12 0.099 72 5.27 < 0.001 NUM1 -135.407 66 51.758 38 -2.62 0.010
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