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摘要: 自古以来传染病就是人类生命健康的最大威胁之一，2019年开始在全球肆虐的COVID-19疫情也表明研究传染病传播规律任重道远。将传染病传播看成是一个动态系统，将负反馈机制引入传染病传播模型，揭示了控制措施和科技手段在传染病防控中起到的作用，对积极防控包括COVID-19在内的重大疫情及未来有效防御生物武器具有指导意义。
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关键词:
- 传染病 /
- 控制论 /
- 动态稳定 /
- 易感者-暴露者-感染者-康复者模型
Abstract: Infectious diseases have been one of the greatest threats to human life since ancient times. The COVID-19 pandemic, which has had a full impact on the world since 2019, also shows that it is a long way to go in studying infectious disease transmission patterns. The spread of the epidemic is regarded as a dynamic system. The negative feedback mechanism is introduced into the infectious disease transmission model. This paper reveals the role of control measures and technological means in epidemic prevention, which can provide guidance to help effectively prevent both major epidemics such as COVID-19 and biological weapons in the future. -
图 3 传染病防控控制原理框图
Figure 3. Schematic diagram of prevention and control of infectious diseases
图 5 疫情前期较慢防控反应时间+较低病毒阳性检出率仿真
Figure 5. Simulation of slow response time + low virus positive detection rate in the early epidemic period
图 6 疫情前期较快防控反应时间+较高病毒阳性检出率仿真
Figure 6. Simulation of fast response time + high virus positive detection rate in the early epidemic period
图 7 疫情后期较快防控反应时间+较高病毒阳性检出率结果
Figure 7. Simulation of fast response time + high virus positive detection rate in the late epidemic period
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