应用受访者驱动抽样估计青岛市男男性行为者人群规模

朱丽敏; 黄贵花; 宋鑫; 傅泳; 葛琳; 李培龙; 李东民

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.06.011

应用受访者驱动抽样估计青岛市男男性行为者人群规模

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.06.011

1.
中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心流行病学室, 北京 102206
2.
青岛市疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病防制所, 青岛 266033

基金项目:

国家科技重大专项 2017ZX10201101-002-005

详细信息

通讯作者:
李东民，E-mail: lidongmin@Chinaaids.cn

中图分类号: R512.91
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-11-01
- 修回日期: 2023-01-29
- 网络出版日期: 2023-07-10
- 刊出日期: 2023-06-10

Using respondent-driven sampling to estimate the population size of men who have sex with men in Qingdao

1.
Department of Epidemiology, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China
2.
Department of AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Qingdao Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Qingdao 266033, China

Funds:

National Science and Technology Major Project of China 2017ZX10201101-002-005

More Information

Corresponding author: LI Dongmin, E-mail: lidongmin@Chinaaids.cn

摘要

摘要: 目的探索受访者驱动抽样(respondent-driven sampling, RDS)在男男性行为者(men who have sex with men, MSM)人群规模估计中的应用经验并估计青岛市MSM人群规模, 为青岛市艾滋病疫情估计和资源分配提供参考。方法采用RDS于2022年8-10月招募青岛市MSM参与调查, 收集一般人口学特征及社交网络规模信息。采用RDS Analyst 0.72软件评估RDS招募效果, 通过定性访谈了解青岛市MSM人群参与调查的意愿及其对激励措施的态度, 利用连续抽样人群规模估计法估计青岛市MSM人群规模。结果共招募671人参与研究, 其中种子10名, 种子所在招募链的人数均>20人, 招募轮次为4~14轮不等。研究对象的年龄组、婚姻状况、受教育程度及户籍地构成在第5~10轮达到均衡, 人口学特征的同质性系数均接近1。10名访谈对象均表示无论是否有激励措施都愿意参与此类调查。连续抽样人群规模估计法基于研究对象自我报告的社交网络规模及基于可见度估计的青岛市MSM人数为分别为80 405~93 410人和69 284~80 236人, 占青岛市成年男性人口的比例分别为1.88%~2.19%和1.62%~1.88%。结论 RDS在MSM人群的招募效果较好, 应用基于RDS的连续抽样人群规模估计法估计的青岛市MSM占当地成年男性人口的比例为1.62%~2.19%。
- 受访者驱动抽样 /
- 连续抽样人群规模估计法 /
- 男男性行为者 /
- 人群规模
Abstract: Objective To explore the experience of respondent-driven sampling (RDS) in the estimation of population size of men who have sex with men (MSM) and to estimate population size of MSM in Qingdao, providing a reference for HIV/AIDS epidemic estimation and resource allocation in Qingdao. Methods An RDS-based survey was conducted from August to October, 2022, gathering information about the general demographics and social network size of MSM in Qingdao.RDS Analyst 0.72 software was used to evaluate the recruitment effectiveness of RDS.The willingness of MSM in Qingdao to participate in the survey and their attitude towards incentive measures were understood through qualitative interviews.The MSM size in Qingdao was estimated by successive sampling-population size estimation. Results A total of 671 participants were included in this study, including 10 seeds, with over 20 people in the recruitment chains where the seeds were located.The recruitment waves ranged from 4 to 14.The age group, marital status, education attainment and census register of the participants reached equilibrium between the 5th and 10th waves, with the homogeneity coefficients for demographic characteristics all approaching 1.All of 10 interviewees said they would participate in such surveys regardless of incentives.Based on the self-reported social network size of the study subjects and the visibility, the estimated MSM population in Qingdao was 80 405-93 410 and 69 284-80 236, accounting for 1.88%-2.19% and 1.62%-1.88% of adult males in Qingdao, respectively. Conclusions RDS recruitment is effective for MSM, and the RDS-based successive sampling-population size estimation indicates that MSM comprises 1.62% to 2.19% of the local adult male population in Qingdao.
- Respondent-driven sampling /
- Successive sampling-population size estimation /
- Men who have sex with men /
- Population size

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图 1 青岛市MSM招募树状图

MSM：男男性行为者。

Figure 1. Recruitment tree of MSM in Qingdao

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 年龄组、婚姻状况、受教育程度及户籍地均衡性检验

Figure 2. Equilibrium test of age group, marital status, education attainment and census register

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 种子人口学特征及招募情况

Table 1. Seeds demographic characteristics and the recruitment status

种子	年龄/岁	受教育程度	职业/身份	居住区/市	青岛市居住时间/年	社交网络规模/人	种子招募人数/人	招募链总人数/人	招募链招募轮次/轮
A	49	本科/大专	便利店老板	莱西区	>2	35	3	116	10
B	21	本科/大专	学生	黄岛区	>2	8	3	102	11
E	27	初中	工人	胶州市	>2	22	3	83	11
F	38	本科/大专	化妆销售	市北区	>2	35	3	22	4
H	51	高中/中专	工人	莱西区	>2	45	3	62	11
K	50	初中	男男性工作者	市北区	>2	60	3	164	14
M	35	初中	工厂职员	莱西区	>2	70	3	28	4
P	48	高中/中专	工人	市南区	>2	5	3	30	5
S	52	本科/大专	教师	黄岛区	>2	3	3	32	4
Y	25	本科/大专	办公室职员	黄岛区	>2	45	3	32	4

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表 2 研究对象基本情况

Table 2. Basic characteristics of the study participants

变量	人数	构成比/%	同质性系数	变量	人数	构成比/%	同质性系数
年龄组/岁			1.233	户籍地			1.057
16~＜26	182	27.12		青岛市	463	69.00
26~＜36	251	37.41		山东省其他地市	120	17.88
36~＜46	124	18.48		其他省份	88	13.12
46~＜56	90	13.41		青岛市居住时间/年			1.026
≥56	24	3.58		0.5~＜1	41	6.11
民族			1.000	1~＜2	84	12.52
汉族	662	98.66		≥2	546	81.37
其他	9	1.34		性取向			1.018
婚姻状况			1.093	同性恋	589	87.78
未婚	441	65.72		双性恋	64	9.54
在婚	171	25.48		异性恋	2	0.30
离异或丧偶	59	8.80		不确定	16	2.38
受教育程度			1.105	月收入/元			1.060
初中及以下	60	8.94		无收入	56	8.35
高中/中专	221	32.94		< 2 000	31	4.62
本科/大专	360	53.65		2 000~＜5000	198	29.51
硕士及以上	30	4.47		5 000~＜8000	299	44.56
				≥8 000	87	12.96

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表 3 青岛市MSM人群规模

Table 3. Population size of MSM in Qingdao

已知MSM占成年男性比例/%	先验信息/人	MSM人群规模估计值
		基于社交网络规模的估计值		基于可见度的估计值
		点估计值(95% CI)/人	点估计值占青岛市成年男性的比例/%	点估计值(95% CI)/人	点估计值占青岛市成年男性的比例/%
1.37	58 506	80 405(17 830~185 634)	1.88	69 284(11 246~185 434)	1.62
1.73	73 880	93 410(23 218~189 824)	2.19	70 829(12 044~183 639)	1.66
2.00	85 410	92 135(18 629~190 223)	2.16	80 236(14 239~184 636)	1.88
3.00	128 116	91 040(21 222~190 223)	2.13	77 885(12 842~186 033)	1.82
4.00	170 821	87 213(23 218~188 427)	2.04	79 289(12 842~188 427)	1.86
注：1. MSM：男男性行为者。

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