2004-2021年重庆市丙型病毒性肝炎流行特征及预测

贺亚萍; 吴国辉; 张维; 林璟; 周超

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.07.002

2004-2021年重庆市丙型病毒性肝炎流行特征及预测

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.07.002

重庆市疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制所，重庆 400042

基金项目:

重庆市自然科学基金 cstc2021jcyj-msxmX1171

重庆市科卫联合医学科研 2022GDRC017

详细信息

通讯作者:
周超，E-mail: 12818085@qq.com

中图分类号: R181.3
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-12-08
- 修回日期: 2023-04-19
- 网络出版日期: 2023-08-08
- 刊出日期: 2023-07-10

Epidemiological characteristics analysis of hepatitis C in Chongqing from 2004 to 2021 and prediction

Institute for Prevention and Control of STD/AIDS, Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chongqing 400042, China

Funds:

Chongqing Natural Science Foundation Project cstc2021jcyj-msxmX1171

Medical Research of Chongqing Science and Health Joint Project 2022GDRC017

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHOU Chao, E-mail: 12818085@qq.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析重庆市丙型病毒性肝炎(丙肝)流行特征，并预测发病趋势，为丙肝防控工作提供科学参考。方法在中国疾病预防控制信息传染病监测系统中收集2004-2021年现住址为重庆市的丙肝病例资料，分析其时间、人群和地区分布特征，并预测2025年发病率。结果 2004-2021年重庆市共报告丙肝病例59 663例，报告发病率从2004年的1.64/10⁵上升至2021年的19.10/10⁵，报告发病率年均变化百分比为15.50%(95% CI: 12.90%~18.20%)。病例以25~ < 65岁为主，占病例总数的85.59%，年龄构成从2004年以25~ < 35岁为主(34.89%)逐渐转变成2021年以45~ < 55岁为主(39.04%)。病例主要分布在主城区及渝西片区，职业主要为农民(31.23%)、家务及待业(30.72%)。报告病例数居前5位的地区为大足区(3 881例)、江北区(3 771例)、渝中区(3 646例)、江津区(3 207例)、沙坪坝区(3 113例)。如不采取有效控制措施，预测到2025年重庆市发病率将上升至24.45/10⁵(95% CI: 22.24/10⁵~26.66/10⁵)。结论重庆市丙肝疫情呈上升趋势，病例主要为中老年、农民人群，病例主要分布在主城区及渝西片区。如不加强防控，发病率会持续升高，今后应重点针对主城区及渝西片区的中老年、农民人群加强防控。
- 丙型病毒性肝炎 /
- 流行特征 /
- 求和自回归移动平均模型
Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C in Chongqing, predict its incidence, and provide scientific reference for prevention and control. Methods Data of hepatitis C cases was collected from the Direct Reporting System of Infectious Disease Information Network in China. We then analyzed the time, groups, and regional distributions, and predicted the incidence rate for 2025. Results From 2004 to 2021, 59 663 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Chongqing, with the reported incidence rising from 1.64/100 000 in 2004 to 19.10/100 000 in 2021, exhibiting an average annual percent change rate of 15.50% (95% CI: 12.90%-18.20%). The majority of cases were within the 25- < 65 age range (85.59%), with the primary age group shifting from 25- < 35 years (34.89%) in 2004 to 45- < 55 years (39.04%) in 2021. Farmers (31.23%) and the unemployed (30.72%) constituted the major occupational categories. Most cases were reported from the central urban area and western Chongqing, with the top five districts in terms of case numbers being Dazu (3 881 cases), Jiangbei (3 771 cases), Yuzhong (3 646 cases), Jiangjin (3 207 cases), and Shapingba (3 113 cases). If no effective interventions are implemented, the projected incidence rate would rise to 24.45/100 000 (95% CI: 22.24/100 000-26.66/100 000) by 2025. Conclusions The incidence of hepatitis C in Chongqing is rising, with the majority of cases being middle-aged and elderly farmers mostly residing in the central urban and western areas. The incidence is projected to continue rising in the absence of effective measures. Therefore, future intervention efforts should target middle-aged and elderly farmers residing in these areas.
- Hepatitis C /
- Epidemiologic characteristics /
- Autoregressive integrated moving average model

HTML全文

图 1 2004-2021年重庆市丙肝报告发病率趋势变化

APC：年度变化百分比。

Figure 1. Trends in the incidence of hepatitis C in Chongqing from 2004 to 2021

APC: annual percent change.

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2004-2021年重庆市报告丙肝病例年龄占比分布

Figure 2. Age composition ratio distribution of reported hepatitis C cases in Chongqing from 2004 to 2021

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2004、2010、2015、2021年重庆市报告丙肝病例数地区分布

Figure 3. Regional distribution of reported hepatitis C cases in Chongqing in 2004, 2010, 2015 and 2021

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 2004-2025年重庆市丙肝发病率ARIMA(1, 1, 1)模型预测图

ARIMA: 求和自回归移动平均。

Figure 4. ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model prediction of hepatitis C incidence in Chongqing from 2004 to 2025

ARIMA: auto regressive integrated moving average.

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2004-2021年重庆市丙肝报告发病情况

Table 1. The reported incidence of hepatitis C in Chongqing from 2004 to 2021

年份Year	男性Male		女性Female		合计Total
年份Year	发病数Numberof cases	发病率/10^-5Incidence/10^-5	发病数Numberof cases	发病率/10^-5Incidence/10^-5	发病数Numberof cases	发病率/10^-5Incidence/10^-5
2004	334	2.05	179	1.64	513	1.64
2005	385	2.67	214	1.59	599	2.15
2006	482	3.42	267	1.92	749	2.68
2007	804	5.54	429	3.16	1 233	4.39
2008	1 061	7.29	604	4.44	1 665	5.91
2009	1 087	7.42	632	4.60	1 719	6.06
2010	1 312	8.90	785	5.67	2 097	7.34
2011	1 647	11.28	1 128	7.92	2 775	9.62
2012	2 018	13.65	1 175	8.16	3 193	10.94
2013	2 207	14.80	1 468	10.10	3 675	12.48
2014	2 487	16.54	1 553	10.59	4 040	13.60
2015	2 716	17.65	1 877	12.92	4 593	15.35
2016	3 104	20.34	2 078	13.94	5 182	17.18
2017	3 389	21.95	2 290	15.22	5 679	18.63
2018	3 142	20.26	1 987	13.04	5 129	16.68
2019	3 379	21.61	2 066	13.43	5 445	17.55
2020	3 303	20.97	1 952	12.60	5 255	16.82
2021	3 850	23.76	2 272	14.33	6 122	19.10

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