2005-2019年湛江市主要血源及性传播疾病流行特征分析与模型预测

寇晓杰; 张泽旭; 倪进东; 陈惠达; 张炳松; 梁力中; 曾海; 曾志嵘

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.07.004

2005-2019年湛江市主要血源及性传播疾病流行特征分析与模型预测

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.07.004

寇晓杰¹,
张泽旭¹,
倪进东^{1, 5},
陈惠达¹,
张炳松²,
梁力中³,
曾海⁴,
曾志嵘^5, ,

1.
广东医科大学公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系，东莞 523808
2.
广东医科大学附属东莞第一医院，东莞 523710
3.
广东医科大学附属医院，湛江 524000
4.
湛江市卫生健康局，湛江 524013
5.
广东医科大学公共卫生与健康研究院，湛江 524023

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金 82273709

广东省教育厅新冠肺炎疫情防控科研专项 2020KZDZX1099

详细信息

通讯作者:
曾志嵘，E-mail: zengzr@gdmu.edu.cn

中图分类号: R181.3
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-12-02
- 修回日期: 2023-02-12
- 网络出版日期: 2023-08-08
- 刊出日期: 2023-07-10

Analysis and model prediction of epidemiological characteristics of main blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases in Zhanjiang City from 2005 to 2019

1.
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan 523808, China
2.
The First Dongguan Affiliated Hospital, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan 523710, China
3.
Affiliated Hospital of Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang 524000, China
4.
Zhanjiang Municipal Health Bureau, Zhanjiang 524013, China
5.
Institute of Public Health and Wellness, Guangdong Medical University, Zhanjiang 524023, China

Funds:

National Social Science Foundation of China 82273709

COVID-19 Prevention and Control Research Fund of Department of Education of Guangdong Province 2020KZDZX1099

More Information

Corresponding author: ZENG Zhirong, E-mail: zengzr@gdmu.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 目的探讨湛江市5种血源及性传播疾病的发病特征，建立求和自回归移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA)模型预测其月发病率，为制定防控策略提供依据。方法收集湛江市2005-2019年5种血源及性传播疾病的报告病例数，分析其流行特征，并为每种疾病构建ARIMA模型。结果湛江市2005-2019年累计报告血源及性传播疾病154 477例，年均发病率为148.54/10万，发病率呈长期上升趋势，男性发病数多于女性，主要发生在20~＜40岁年龄段，高发人群为农民，好发于廉江市，2月呈发病低谷期。乙型病毒性肝炎(乙肝)、丙型病毒性肝炎(丙肝)、HIV/AIDS、淋病最优模型均为ARIMA(0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)₁₂，梅毒最优模型为ARIMA(0, 1, 1)(1, 1, 1)₁₂，2019年拟合值与真实值的平均绝对百分比误差(mean absolute percentage error, MAPE)分别为7.76%、7.58%、9.39%、19.60%、11.48%。结论 2005-2019年湛江市血源及性传播疾病有较高的发病率，且发病有明显的地区、人群分布特点; ARIMA模型在血源及性传播疾病中有较好的预测性能，可通过模型进行短期预测，为合理配置防控资源提供依据。
- 血源及性传播疾病 /
- 流行特征 /
- 求和自回归移动平均模型
Abstract: Objective To explore the incidence characteristics of five blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases in Zhanjiang City, and to establish an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to predict the monthly incidence, thereby offering a basis for formulating prevention and control strategies. Methods We collected the number of reported cases of five blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases in Zhanjiang City from 2005 to 2019, analyzed the epidemiological characteristics, and constructed an ARIMA model for each disease. Results The cumulative number of reported cases of blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases in Zhanjiang City from 2005 to 2019 was 154 477, with an average annual incidence rate of 148.54/100 000. The incidence displayed a long-term upward trend and was higher in males than in females. The diseases mainly occurred in the 20- < 40 age group, with a high incidence among farmers, and were predominantly prevalent in Lianjiang City, with a low incidence in February. The optimal model for hepatitis B, hepatitis C, HIV/AIDS, and gonorrhea was ARIMA(0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)₁₂, and the optimal model of syphilis was ARIMA(0, 1, 1)(1, 1, 1)₁₂. In 2019, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the fitted and true values was 7.76%, 7.58%, 9.39%, 19.60% and 11.48%, respectively. Conclusions The incidence of blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases in Zhanjiang City from 2005 to 2019 was high, characterized by distinct regional and demographic distributions. The ARIMA model demonstrated good predictive performance for these diseases, proving its usefulness for making short-term predictions and providing a basis for rational resource allocation for disease prevention and control.
- Blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases /
- Epidemic characteristics /
- Autoregressive integrated moving average model

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图 1 2005-2019年湛江市血源及性传播疾病时间分布图

1. A：乙肝; 2. B：丙肝; 3. C：梅毒; 4. D：HIV/AIDS; 5. E：淋病; 6. a：时间趋势; 7. b：月份分布。

Figure 1. Time distribution map of blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases in Zhanjiang City from 2005 to 2019

1. A: Hepatitis B; 2. B: Hepatitis C; 3. C: Syphilis; 4. D: HIV/AIDS; 5. E: Gonorrhea; 6. a: Time trend; 7. b: Month distribution.

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图 2 2020年湛江市血源及性传播疾病月发病率预测图

1. A: 乙肝; 2. B：丙肝; 3. C：梅毒; 4. D：HIV/AIDS; 5. E：淋病。

Figure 2. Monthly incidence prediction of blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases in Zhanjiang City in 2020

1. A: Hepatitis B; 2. B: Hepatitis C; 3. C: Syphilis; 4. D: HIV/AIDS; 5. E: Gonorrhea.

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表 1 2005-2019年湛江市血源及性传播疾病不同性别分布情况

Table 1. Distribution of blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases in Zhanjiang City by gender from 2005 to 2019

病种Disease	男性^① Male ^①	女性^① Female ^①	男女性别比Male to female sex ratio
乙肝Hepatitis B	72 673(71.18)	29 422(28.82)	2.47∶1
丙肝Hepatitis C	9 727(77.25)	2 865(22.75)	3.40∶1
梅毒Syphilis	17 539(55.97)	13 797(44.03)	1.27∶1
HIV/AIDS	3 288(77.02)	981(22.98)	3.35∶1
淋病Gonorrhea	3 377(80.69)	808(19.31)	4.18∶1
注：①以[人数(占比/%)]表示。 Note：① [Number of people (proportion /%)].

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表 2 2005-2019年湛江市血源及性传播疾病不同年龄分布情况

Table 2. Distribution of blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases in Zhanjiang City by ages from 2005 to 2019

年龄组/岁Age group/years	乙肝^① Hepatitis B ^①	丙肝^① Hepatitis C ^①	梅毒^① Syphilis ^①	HIV/AIDS ^①	淋病^① Gonorrhea^①
0~＜10	661(0.65)	214(1.70)	923(2.94)	34(0.80)	40(0.96)
10~＜20	5 680(5.56)	113(0.90)	605(1.93)	99(2.32)	284(6.79)
20~＜30	24 582(24.08)	1 286(10.21)	4 033(12.87)	709(16.61)	1 575(37.63)
30~＜40	21 133(20.70)	4 385(34.82)	4 505(14.38)	745(17.45)	905(21.63)
40~＜50	17 180(16.83)	3 741(29.71)	4 089(13.05)	584(13.68)	519(12.40)
50~＜60	15 347(15.03)	1 380(10.96)	4 515(14.41)	717(16.80)	440(10.51)
60~＜70	10 431(10.22)	707(5.62)	5 202(16.60)	821(19.23)	262(6.26)
70~＜80	5 181(5.07)	450(3.57)	4 859(15.51)	439(10.28)	119(2.84)
≥80	1 900(1.86)	316(2.51)	2 605(8.31)	121(2.83)	41(0.98)
注：①以[人数(占比/%)]表示。 Note：① [Number of people (proportion /%)].

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表 3 2005-2019年湛江市血源及性传播疾病地区分布情况

Table 3. Regional distribution of blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases in Zhanjiang City from 2005 to 2019

地区District	乙肝^① Hepatitis B ^①	丙肝^① Hepatitis C ^①	梅毒^① Syphilis ^①	HIV/AIDS ^①	淋病^① Gonorrhea^①
赤坎区Chikan District	6 595(6.46)	943(7.49)	2 617(8.35)	213(4.99)	298(7.12)
雷州市Leizhou City	15 135(14.82)	1 437(11.41)	4 535(14.47)	314(7.36)	987(23.59)
廉江市Lianjiang City	17 696(17.33)	2 105(16.72)	6 895(22.00)	1 874(43.90)	704(16.82)
麻章区Mazhang District	6 525(6.39)	1 092(8.67)	1 928(6.15)	255(5.97)	175(4.18)
坡头区Potou District	5 349(5.24)	496(3.94)	1 376(4.39)	174(4.08)	211(5.04)
遂溪县Suixi County	15 612(15.29)	1 973(15.67)	4 754(15.17)	419(9.81)	450(10.75)
吴川市Wuchuan City	9 107(8.92)	946(7.51)	2 704(8.63)	389(9.11)	499(11.92)
霞山区Xiashan District	8 733(8.56)	1 350(10.72)	3 182(10.16)	310(7.26)	514(12.28)
徐闻县Xuwen County	17 088(16.74)	2 230(17.71)	3 283(10.48)	320(7.50)	325(7.77)
其他Other	255(0.25)	20(0.16)	62(0.20)	1(0.20)	22(0.53)
注：①以[人数(占比/%)]表示。 Note：① [Number of people (proportion /%)].

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表 4 湛江市血源及性传播疾病最优模型参数值

Table 4. Parameter values of the optimal model of blood-borne and sexually transmitted diseases in Zhanjiang City

模型 Model	参数 Parameter	β	s_x	t值 t value	P值 P value	AIC值 AIC value	残差L-B检验P值 P value of L-B test
乙肝ARIMA(0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)₁₂Hepatitis B ARIMA(0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)₁₂	MA1	-0.42	0.08	-5.25	<0.001	449.08	0.99
	SMA1	-0.89	0.10	-8.90	< 0.001
丙肝ARIMA(0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)₁₂Hepatitis C ARIMA(0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)₁₂	MA1	-0.72	0.07	-10.29	< 0.001	-103.82	0.82
	SMA1	-0.84	0.09	-9.33	< 0.001
梅毒ARIMA(0, 1, 1)(1, 1, 1)₁₂Syphilis ARIMA(0, 1, 1)(1, 1, 1)₁₂	MA1	-0.71	0.06	-11.83	< 0.001	107.21	0.37
	SAR1	0.30	0.12	2.50	0.008
	SMA1	-0.89	0.13	-6.85	< 0.001
HIV/AIDS ARIMA(0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)₁₂	MA1	-0.85	-0.05	17.00	< 0.001	-251.46	0.31
	SMA1	-0.75	0.07	-10.71	< 0.001
淋病ARIMA(0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)₁₂ Gonorrhea ARIMA(0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)₁₂	SAR1	-0.70	0.06	-11.67	< 0.001	-289.99	0.39
	SMA1	-1.00	0.14	-7.14	<0.001
注：ARIMA, 求和自回归移动平均; AIC, 赤池信息量准则; MA, 移动平均模型阶数; SMA, 季节性移动平均模型阶数; SAR, 季节性自回归模型阶数。 Note: ARIMA, auto regressive integrated moving average; AIC, Akaike information criterion; MA, order of moving average model; SMA, order of seasonal moving average model; SAR, order of seasonal auto regressive model.

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