2004―2020年中国肝癌死亡率时间趋势分析

丁书姝; 郭浩阳; 陈浩; 孙姝; 石玮; 袁慧

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.08.015

2004―2020年中国肝癌死亡率时间趋势分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.08.015

丁书姝¹,
郭浩阳²,
陈浩²,
孙姝²,
石玮¹,
袁慧^1, ,

1.
皖南医学院公共卫生学院预防医学教研室，芜湖 241002
2.
皖南医学院公共卫生学院预防医学专业，芜湖 241002

基金项目:

皖南医学院校重点科研项目培育基金 WK2016Z07

国家级大学生创新创业训练计划 201710368057

安徽省省级大学生创新创业训练计划 S202010368003

详细信息

通讯作者:
袁慧，E-mail: yuanhui0553@126.com

中图分类号: R181;R563.9
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-03-23
- 修回日期: 2022-07-07
- 网络出版日期: 2023-09-02
- 刊出日期: 2023-08-10

Analysis for the time trends of hepatoma mortality in China from 2004 to 2020

1.
Faculty of Prevention Medical Research, School of Public Health, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu 241002, China
2.
Preventive medicine, School of Public Health, Wannan Medical College, Wuhu 241002 China

Funds:

Cultivation Fund for Key Scientific Research Projects of Wanna Medical College WK2016Z07

Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program for College Students of China 201710368057

Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program for College Students of Anhui Province S202010368003

More Information

Corresponding author: YUAN Hui, E-mail: yuanhui0553@126.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析2004―2020年中国肝癌标准化死亡率及其变化趋势，为肝癌防治策略与措施的制定提供参考。方法利用国家卫生健康委员会统计信息中心发布的中国卫生健康统计年鉴，提取2004―2020年肝癌疾病死亡率数据并计算标化死亡率，使用Joinpoint回归模型分析不同地区、不同年龄段人群肝癌疾病死亡标化率变化趋势。结果 2004―2020年中国居民肝癌标化死亡率结果显示，农村居民肝癌标化死亡率高于城市居民，男性肝癌标化死亡率高于女性。Joinpoint回归结果表明，2004―2020年城市居民肝癌标化死亡率[年平均年度变化百分比(average annual percent change，AAPC)=-2.38%，P＜0.001]低于农村居民(AAPC=-2.41%, P < 0.001);男性年下降速度均低于女性。城市居民肝癌标化死亡率在20~ < 50岁、55~ < 60岁、70~ < 85岁逐年下降; 农村居民肝癌标化死亡率在25~ < 50岁、60~ < 65岁、70~ < 80岁逐年下降。结论 2004―2020年中国肝癌死亡率整体呈下降趋势，标化死亡率在性别、年龄和地区方面仍存在差异。
- 肝癌 /
- 死亡率 /
- Joinpoint /
- 时间趋势
Abstract: Objective To analyze the standardized mortality rate of hepatoma and its trend variation among the Chinese population from 2004 to 2020, in order to provide a basis for formulating prevention and treatment strategies of hepatoma. Methods Mortality data were obtained from the the statistical information center of the National Health Commission. We extracted the mortality data of hepatoma from 2004 to 2020 and calculated the standardized mortality. The trend variation of standardized mortality of hepatoma in different regions and different age groups was compared by joinpoint model regression analysis. Results The standardized mortality rate of hepatoma among Chinese residents from 2004 to 2020 revealed that the rate was higher among rural residents compared to urban residents, and higher in males compared to females. The results of joinpoint regression showed that the standardized mortality of hepatoma in urban residents [average annual percent change(AAPC)=-2.38%, P < 0.001] was lower than that in rural residents (AAPC=-2.41%, P < 0.001); The annual decline rate of males was lower than that of females. The standardized mortality rate of hepatoma among urban residents aged 20- < 50, 55- < 60 and 70- < 85 showed a year-on-year decrease. In contrast, the standardized mortality rate of liver cancer among rural residents aged 25- < 50, 60- < 65 and 70- < 80 decreased year-on-year. Conclusions The overall mortality rate of liver cancer in China showed a downward trend from 2004 to 2020. However, disparities persist across gender, age, and region.
- Hepatoma /
- Mortality /
- Joinpoint /
- Time trend

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图 1 2004―2020年城市和农村居民肝癌标化死亡率的变化趋势

APC: 年度变化百分比。

Figure 1. Time trend analysis of standardized hepatoma in urban and rural from 2004 to 2020

APC: annual percent change.

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图 2 2004―2020年不同性别肝癌标化死亡率的变化趋势

APC: 年度变化百分比。

Figure 2. Trend of standardized mortality of liver cancer of different genders from 2004 to 2020

APC: annual percent change.

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表 1 2004―2020年城乡居民肝癌死亡率

Table 1. Mortality rate of hepatoma in urban and rural from 2004 to 2020

年份 Year	城市居民/10万^-1 City dwellers /100 000^-1						农村居民/10万^-1 Rural residents /100 000^-1
	男性Male		女性Female		合计Sum		男性Male		女性Female		合计Sum
	粗死亡率 Crude death rate	标化死亡率 Standardized mortality	粗死亡率 Crude death rate	标化死亡率 Standardized mortality	粗死亡率 Crude death rate	标化死亡率 Standardized mortality	粗死亡率 Crude death rate	标化死亡率 Standardized mortality	粗死亡率 Crude death rate	标化死亡率 Standardized mortality	粗死亡率 Crude death rate	标化死亡率 Standardized mortality
2004	29.78	42.17	10.87	13.78	20.55	28.01	36.06	56.50	14.05	19.75	25.40	38.44
2005	36.57	58.02	13.29	19.32	25.17	38.73	32.36	50.16	12.02	18.11	23.09	35.38
2006	36.01	44.03	12.45	14.21	24.50	28.92	38.04	57.04	13.28	18.07	25.90	37.64
2007	39.44	44.10	13.97	13.97	26.86	28.91	42.66	63.24	14.55	19.87	28.72	41.44
2008	42.65	35.28	13.89	11.80	28.46	23.40	44.70	65.01	16.20	20.90	30.72	42.91
2009	37.12	37.13	12.85	11.99	25.24	24.41	45.91	63.66	16.29	20.42	31.32	41.98
2010	35.43	41.83	13.71	14.03	24.76	27.77	39.83	53.22	13.32	15.76	26.87	34.26
2011	34.28	38.77	12.79	12.67	23.61	25.54	39.77	53.45	13.88	16.40	27.12	34.94
2012	32.8	36.27	12.38	11.87	22.68	23.98	40.74	49.81	14.41	15.73	27.78	32.84
2013	32.92	36.88	12.18	11.94	22.68	24.35	37.17	44.66	13.49	14.57	25.59	29.67
2014	32.02	39.32	12.07	12.58	22.18	25.94	34.86	46.90	13.67	15.03	24.68	31.02
2015	31.85	39.38	12.81	12.75	23.95	25.98	39.47	46.25	14.26	14.97	27.09	30.64
2016	32.95	36.86	12.16	11.58	22.70	24.20	39.06	44.15	14.25	14.00	22.70	29.12
2017	32.71	36.14	12.21	11.46	22.62	23.80	38.59	43.45	13.95	13.61	26.48	28.54
2018	31.26	33.58	12.12	10.71	21.84	22.16	37.82	41.76	13.99	13.20	26.13	27.51
2019	30.66	30.68	11.62	9.52	21.28	19.98	37.59	39.83	13.66	12.26	25.82	25.90
2020	31.04	30.03	12.42	9.90	21.88	19.85	38.61	39.95	14.54	12.57	26.77	26.07

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表 2 2004―2020年城市和农村居民肝癌标化死亡率的时间趋势分析

Table 2. Time trend analysis of standardized hepatoma in urban and rural from 2004 to 2020

地区Region	第一阶段First stage			第二阶段Second stage			AAPC(95% CI)/%	t/P值value
地区Region	年份Year	APC(95% CI)/%	t/P值value	年份Year	APC(95% CI)/%	t/P	AAPC(95% CI)/%	t/P值value
城市City	2004―2020	-2.38(-3.40~-1.34)	-4.85/ < 0.001	-	-	-	-2.38(-3.40~-1.34)	-4.85/ < 0.001
农村Rural area	2004―2008	2.11(-3.12~7.62)	0.87/0.403	2008―2020	-3.87(-4.81~-2.92)	-8.76/ < 0.001	-2.41(-3.73~-1.08)	-3.53/ < 0.001
注：APC, 年度变化百分比; AAPC, 平均年度变化百分比。 Note: APC, annual percent change; AAPC, average annual percent change.Time trend analysis of standardized hepatoma in urban and rural of different genders from 2004 to 2020

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表 3 2004―2020年不同性别城市和农村居民肝癌标化死亡率的时间趋势分析

Table 3. Time trend analysis of standardized hepatoma in urban and rural of different genders from 2004 to 2020

地区Region	第一阶段/第三阶段First stage/Third stage			第二阶段Second stage			AAPC(95% CI)/%	t/P值value
地区Region	时期Years	APC(95% CI)/%	t/P值value	时期Years	APC(95% CI)/%	t/P	AAPC(95% CI)/%	t/P值value
城市男性Urban male	2004―2020	-2.33(-3.34~-1.31)	-4.82/ < 0.001	-	-	-	-2.33(-3.34~-1.31)	-4.82/ < 0.001
农村男性Rural male	2004―2008	5.35(0.08~10.90)	2.30/0.047	2008―2013	-6.29(-10.98~-1.36)	-2.870.019	-1.67(-3.58~0.28)	-1.68/0.092
	2013―2020	-2.16(-4.26~-0.02)	-2.28/0.048	-	-	-	-	-
城市女性Urban female	2004―2020	-2.53(-3.55~-1.50)	-5.19/ < 0.001	-	-	-	-2.53(-3.55~-1.50)	-5.19/ < 0.001
农村女性Rural female	2004―2020	-3.10(-3.82~-2.38)	-9.03/ < 0.001	-	-	-	-3.10(-3.82~-2.38)	-9.03/ < 0.001
注：APC, 年度变化百分比; AAPC, 平均年度变化百分比。 Note: APC, annual percent change; AAPC, average annual percent change.

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表 4 2004―2020年城乡居民不同年龄别肝癌标化死亡率的时间趋势分析

Table 4. Time trend analysis of standardized hepatoma mortality of urban and rural residents from 2004 to 2020

年龄组/岁 Age group/years	城市City		农村Rural area
年龄组/岁 Age group/years	AAPC/%	P值value	AAPC/%	P值value
20~ < 25	-9.39	< 0.001	-5.38	0.051
25~ < 30	-10.01	0.006	-1.94	0.020
30~ < 35	-4.88	< 0.001	-2.55	0.004
35~ < 40	-6.26	< 0.001	-6.30	< 0.001
40~ < 45	-4.99	< 0.001	-5.29	0.001
45~ < 50	-4.16	< 0.001	-2.93	0.001
50~ < 55	-4.58	0.056	-3.47	0.132
55~ < 60	-3.00	< 0.001	-2.49	0.168
60~ < 65	-0.94	0.238	-1.97	0.003
65~ < 70	-0.72	0.313	-1.35	0.427
70~ < 75	-1.90	< 0.001	-1.49	0.003
75~ < 80	-2.38	< 0.001	-1.99	0.001
80~ < 85	-1.47	0.008	-1.50	0.074
注：AAPC，平均年度变化百分比。 Note: AAPC, average annual percent change.

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