陕西省2010—2020年5岁以下儿童死亡监测结果分析

李敏; 王宝珠

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.09.006

陕西省2010—2020年5岁以下儿童死亡监测结果分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.09.006

李敏,
王宝珠^,

西北妇女儿童医院保健部，西安 710061

详细信息

通讯作者:
王宝珠，E-mail: 715771638@qq.com

中图分类号: R174
计量
- 文章访问数: 212
- HTML全文浏览量: 68
- PDF下载量: 29
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-11-03
- 修回日期: 2022-05-21
- 网络出版日期: 2023-10-12
- 刊出日期: 2023-09-10

Analysis of mortality monitoring results of children under 5 years old in Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2020

LI Min,
WANG Baozhu^,

Healthcare Department, Northwest Women's and Children's Hospital, Xi'an 710061, China

More Information

Corresponding author: WANG Baozhu, E-mail: 715771638@qq.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析2010—2020年陕西省5岁以下儿童死亡状况及主要死因，为相关部门制定干预措施提供依据。方法收集陕西省5岁以下儿童死亡监测资料。应用Joinpoint回归模型分析5岁以下儿童死亡率变化趋势和主要死因别死亡率变化趋势。结果 2010—2020年陕西省5岁以下儿童死亡率呈下降趋势，Joinpoint回归模型分析显示全省、城市和农村5岁以下儿童死亡率均为单调下降趋势，无转折点(全省APC=-11.23，P＜0.001；城市APC=-4.87, P=0.038；农村APC=-12.23, P＜0.001)。城乡5岁以下儿童死亡率变化趋势在2010—2013年间差异无统计学意义(P=0.709)；在2013—2020年差异有统计学意义(P=0.015)。2010—2020年陕西省5岁以下儿童主要死因为出生窒息、先天性心脏病、早产或低出生体重和肺炎，死亡率均呈下降趋势。Joinpoint回归模型显示出生窒息下降趋势有1个转折点(2010—2012年APC=-43.80, P=0.108; 2012—2020年APC=-12.16，P=0.023)。先天性心脏病、早产或低出生体重和肺炎均为单调下降趋势(先天性心脏病APC=-13.21，P＜0.001;早产或低出生体重APC=-11.47, P＜0.001;肺炎APC=-7.67, P=0.038)。结论 2010—2020年陕西省5岁以下儿童死亡率、城市和农村5岁以下儿童死亡率、主要死因别死亡率总体呈下降趋势。
- 5岁以下儿童 /
- 死亡率 /
- 死因别死亡率 /
- 趋势分析
Abstract: Objective This study aims to analyze the mortality and primary death causes in children under five years old in Shaanxi Province from 2010 to 2020, and thus providing guidance for furture intervention strategies. Methods Mortality data for children under five years in Shaanxi Province were collected. The Joinpoint regression model was applied to analyze both mortality and major cause-specific mortality trends. Results From 2010 to 2020, the mortality rates among children under five years in Shaanxi Province were exhibited a significant decrease trend. The Joinpoint regression model showed a consistent monotonous downward trend in mortality rate across overall, urban and rural children under five years groups, with no turning point (overall APC=-11.23, P<0.001;urban APC=-4.87, P=0.038; rural APC=-12.23, P<0.001). No significant differences were found in the trend for annual changes of mortality between urban and rural groups from 2010 to 2013 (P=0.709); however, a significant difference emerged from 2013 to 2020 (P=0.015). The main cause-specific death rates, including asphyxia, congenital heart disease, preterm birth/low birth weight and pneumonia, all significantly decreased. The Joinpoint regression showed that the changing trend of the mortality for asphyxia had a turning point (APC=-43.80 and P=0.108 for 2010-2012, APC=-12.16 and P=0.023 for 2012-2020). The mortality rates for congenital heart disease, preterm birth/low birth weight and pneumonia showed a monotonous downward trend, with APC=-13.21 and P<0.001 for congenital heart disease, APC= -11.47 and P<0.001 for preterm birth/low birth weight, APC=-7.67 and P=0.038 for pneumonia. Conclusions From 2010 to 2020, the mortality rate among children under five years in Shaanxi Province showed an consistent downward trend. This trend was evident both in urban and rural child populations and across all main causes of death.
- Children under five years old /
- Death rate /
- Cause-specific death rate /
- Trend analysis

HTML全文

图 1 2010—2020年陕西省5岁以下儿童死亡率Joinpoint回归

a：α=0.05时，下降趋势差异有统计学意义。

Figure 1. The Joinpoint regression analysis on the mortality rate among children under five years old in Shaanxi Province, 2010-2020

a: α=0.05, the different of the downward trend was statistically significant.

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2010—2020年陕西省城市5岁以下儿童死亡率Joinpoint回归

a：α=0.05时，下降趋势差异有统计学意义。

Figure 2. The Joinpoint regression analysis on the mortality rates among children under five years old in urban area of Shaanxi Province, 2010-2020

a: α=0.05, the different of the downward trend was statistically significant.

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2010—2020年陕西省农村5岁以下儿童死亡率Joinpoint回归

a：α=0.05时，下降趋势差异有统计学意义。

Figure 3. The Joinpoint regression analysis on the mortality rates among children under five years old in rural area of Shaanxi Province, 2010-2020

a: α=0.05, the different of the downward trend was statistically significant.

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2010—2020年陕西省5岁以下儿童死亡率

Table 1. The mortality rate among children under five years old in Shaanxi Province, 2010-2020

年份 Year	陕西省5岁以下儿童死亡率/‰ Mortality rate (Shaanxi Province, ‰)	全国5岁以下儿童死亡率/‰ Mortality rate (China, ‰)
2010	13.42	16.4
2011	12.74	15.6
2012	10.00	13.2
2013	9.10	12.0
2014	8.85	11.7
2015	8.55	10.7
2016	8.44	10.2
2017	5.68	9.1
2018	4.90	8.4
2019	4.63	7.8
2020	4.33	7.5

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2010—2020年陕西省城市和农村5岁以下儿童死亡率

Table 2. The mortality of urban and rural children under five years old in Shaanxi Province, from 2010 to 2020

年份 Year	陕西省/‰ Shaanxi Province/‰		全国/‰ China/‰
年份 Year	城市Urban	农村Rural	城市Urban	农村Rural
2010	8.81	14.54	7.3	20.1
2011	9.45	13.49	7.1	19.1
2012	4.48	11.25	5.9	16.2
2013	4.50	10.50	6.0	14.5
2014	4.10	9.50	5.9	14.2
2015	6.86	8.19	5.8	12.9
2016	5.79	8.72	5.2	12.4
2017	4.71	5.82	4.8	10.9
2018	3.49	5.08	4.4	10.2
2019	5.22	4.46	4.1	9.4
2020	4.59	4.23	4.4	8.9

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 2010—2020年陕西省5岁以下儿童主要死因别死亡率及构成比

Table 3. Cause-specific death rate and component ratio of main causes of death among children under 5 years old in Shaanxi Province, 2010-2020

年份Year	主要死因别死亡率/10万^-1及构成比/% Major cause-specific mortality rate/100 000^-1 and proportion/%
年份Year	出生窒息 Birth asphyxia	先天性心脏病 Congenital heart disease	早产或低出生体重 Premature birth or low birth weight	肺炎 Pneumonia
2010	292.74(25.86)	195.16(17.24)	107.34(9.48)	78.06(6.90)
2011	132.52(15.32)	101.34(11.71)	124.73(14.41)	116.93(13.51)
2012	108.19(13.27)	194.73(23.89)	115.40(14.16)	72.12(8.85)
2013	83.91(13.25)	53.39(8.43)	76.28(12.05)	68.65(10.84)
2014	74.99(15.63)	52.49(10.94)	74.99(15.63)	37.49(7.81)
2015	49.27(11.16)	57.48(13.02)	61.59(13.95)	51.32(11.63)
2016	45.96(10.62)	67.03(15.49)	38.30(8.85)	42.13(9.73)
2017	53.87(11.98)	72.44(16.12)	57.58(12.81)	42.72(9.50)
2018	27.10(8.51)	51.94(16.31)	47.42(14.89)	18.07(5.67)
2019	47.42(11.17)	45.27(10.66)	47.42(11.17)	56.04(13.20)
2020	26.48(7.33)	45.74(12.67)	33.70(9.33)	45.74(12.67)

下载: 导出CSV

参考文献(13)

[1]	李辉章, 杜灵彬. Joinpoint回归模型在肿瘤流行病学时间趋势分析中的应用[J]. 中华预防医学杂志, 2020, 54(8): 908-912. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20200616-00889. Li HZ, Du LB. Application of Joinpoint regression model in time trend analysis of tumor epidemiology[J]. Chin J Prev Med, 2020, 54(8): 908-912. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20200616-00889.
[2]	Chen HS, Zeichner S, Anderson RN, et al. The Joinpoint-jump and Joinpoint-comparability ratio model for trend analysis with applications to coding changes in health statistics[J]. J Off Stat, 2020, 36(1): 49-62. DOI: 10.2478/jos-2020-0003.
[3]	曾四清. Joinpoint回归模型及其在传染病流行趋势分析中的应用[J]. 中国卫生统计, 2019, 36(5): 787-791. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.01.022. Zeng SQ. Joinpoint regression model and its application in epidemic trend analysis of infectious diseases[J]. Chin Health Stat, 2019, 36(5): 787-791. DOI: 10.3760/cma.j.issn.0254-6450.2017.01.022.
[4]	中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会. 《2020年我国卫生健康事业发展统计公报》[EB/OL]. (2021-07-13)[2021-11-03]. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/guihuaxxs/s10743/202107/af8a9c98453c4d9593e07895ae0493c8.shtml.
[5]	庄镇漳, 陈冬梅, 罗琪, 等. 2011—2020年泉州市5岁以下儿童死亡变化动态及趋势分析[J]. 预防医学论坛, 2021, 27(10): 773-777. DOI: 10.16406/j.pmt.issn.1672-9153.2021.10.017. Zhuang ZC, Chen DM, Luo Q, et al. Dynamic and trend analysis of mortality of children under 5 years old in Quanzhou, 2011-2020[J]. Prev Med Trib, 2021, 27(10): 773-777. DOI: 10.16406/j.pmt.issn.1672-9153.2021.10.017.
[6]	张晓文. 2006—2018年北京市西城区5岁以下儿童死亡监测分析[J]. 中国公共卫生管理, 2021, 37(1): 62-64. DOI: 10.19568/j.cnki.23-1318.2021.01.0015. Zhang XW. Analysis of mortality monitoring of children under 5 years old in Xicheng District, Beijing, 2006-2018[J]. Chin J of PHM, 2021, 37(1): 62-64. DOI: 10.19568/j.cnki.23-1318.2021.01.0015.
[7]	刘秀英, 汪晓霞, 刘雪娜, 等. 2008—2018年大连市5岁以下儿童死亡监测结果分析[J]. 中国妇幼保健, 2020, 35(4): 596-599. DOI: 10.19829/j.zgfybj.issn.1001-4411.2020.04.004. Liu XY, Wang XX, Liu XN, et al. Analysis of mortality monitoring results of children under 5 years old in Dalian, 2008-2018[J]. Maternal and Child Health Care of China, 2020, 35(4): 596-599. DOI: 10.19829/j.zgfybj.issn.1001-4411.2020.04.004.
[8]	罗灿, 王雄虎, 朱颖贤, 等. 广东省2015—2018年五岁以下儿童死亡原因分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2021, 37(2): 346-349. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1126336. Luo C, Wang XH, Zhu YX, et al. Analysis of causes of death among children under 5 years old in Guangdong Province, 2015-2018[J]. Chin J Publ Heal, 2021, 37(2): 346-349. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1126336.
[9]	赵晓山, 刘一心, 李海飞, 等. 深圳市2010年至2017年五岁以下儿童死亡监测分析[J]. 中国妇幼健康研究, 2021, 32(7): 937-943. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-5293.2021.07.002. Zhao XS, Liu YX, Li HF, et al. Analysis of mortality monitoring of children under 5 years old in Shenzhen, from 2010 to 2017[J]. Chinese Journal of Woman and Child Health Research, 2021, 32(7): 937-943. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-5293.2021.07.002.
[10]	中华人民共和国国家卫生健康委员会. 《中国儿童发展纲要(2011-2020)》[EB/OL]. (2012-02-23)[2021-11-03]. http://www.nhc.gov.cn/wjw/gfxwj/201304/a284f487799d4c4f81603aaf3eea8fcf.shtml.
[11]	梁颜华, 张军红, 李宏艳. 2015—2019年宁夏5岁以下儿童死亡率变化趋势预测及死因分析[J]. 宁夏医科大学学报, 2021, 43(9): 929-932. DOI: 10.16050/j.cnki.issn1674-6309.2021.09.010. Liang YH, Zhang JH, Li HY. Prediction of mortality trend and cause of death of children under 5 years old in Ningxia, 2015-2019[J]. J Ningxia Med Univ, 2021, 43(9): 929-932. DOI: 10.16050/j.cnki.issn1674-6309.2021.09.010.
[12]	王宝珠, 李敏, 蔡文娟. 陕西省2006—2011年5岁以下儿童死亡状况和趋势分析[J]. 中国儿童保健杂志, 2013, 21(3): 327-329. Wang BZ, Li M, Cai WJ. Trend analysis of mortality of children under 5 years old in Shaanxi Province, 2006-2011[J]. Chin J Child Health Care, 2013, 21(3): 327-329.
[13]	中华人民共和国中央人民政府. 《中国出生缺陷防治报告(2012)》[EB/OL]. (2012-09-12)[2021-11-03]. http://www.gov.cn/gzdt/2012-09/12/content_2223371.htm.