2005―2020年浙江省戊型病毒性肝炎时空特征

陈奕娟; 孙琬琬; 陈直平; 缪梓萍

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.09.020

2005―2020年浙江省戊型病毒性肝炎时空特征

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.09.020

浙江省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所，杭州 310051

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金 81973101

浙江省基础公益研究 LGF20H190002

详细信息

通讯作者:
缪梓萍，E-mail: zpmiao@cdc.zj.cn

中图分类号: R184.6
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-01-10
- 修回日期: 2022-05-23
- 网络出版日期: 2023-10-12
- 刊出日期: 2023-09-10

Spatio-temporal analysis of hepatitis E in Zhejiang Province from 2005 to 2020

Department of Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 81973101

Zhejiang Province Basic Public Welfare Research LGF20H190002

More Information

Corresponding author: MIAO Ziping, E-mail: zpmiao@cdc.zj.cn

摘要

摘要: 目的分析2005―2020年浙江省戊型病毒性肝炎(hepatitis E, HE)流行病学特征及变化趋势，为防控策略的制定提供依据。方法从中国疾病预防控制中心信息系统获取2005―2020年浙江省HE监测数据，采用描述性流行病学方法分析HE时空分布特征。结果 2005―2019年浙江省HE报告病例和报告发病率窄幅波动。男性报告病例率高于女性，但男性报告病例率总体呈下降趋势。“高-高”聚集区主要位于杭州市和衢州市等地区，存在明显的时空聚集性。结论 2005―2020年浙江省HE疫情整体呈平稳趋势，不同性别、年龄组的发病趋势不同。
- 戊型病毒性肝炎 /
- 时空特征 /
- 防控策略
Abstract: Objective This study endeavors to delineate the epidemiological characteristics and changing patterns of hepatitis E (HE) infection in Zhejiang Province from 2005 to 2020. The findings aim to provide evidence for the development of measures to prevent and manage the HE epidemic. Methods Data on the incidence of HE in Zhejiang Province were extracted from the Chinese notifiable infectious disease reporting system. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics were examined using descriptive epidemiological methods. Results From 2005 to 2019, the reported cases and incidence rate of HE in Zhejiang Province fluctuated narrowly without a notable rising trend. Although the incidence rate of HE is still higher in males than in females, the overall trend is down for males. Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicated that there was significant spatial-temporal clustering of HE in Zhejiang Province, and "High-high" clustering areas were mainly located in cities such as Hangzhou and Quzhou. Conclusions The epidemic situation of HE showed a stable trend in Zhejiang Province, but the trend was varied by gender and age groups.
- Hepatitis E /
- Spatial-temporal characteristics /
- Prevention and control strategies

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图 1 浙江省HE病例按月分布趋势图

HE：戊型病毒性肝炎。

Figure 1. Trend chart of monthly reported numbers of HE cases in Zhejiang Province

HE: hepatitis E.

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表 1 2005―2019年浙江省不同性别和年龄HE Joinpoint模型分析结果

Table 1. Joinpoint model of HE by gender and age in Zhejiang Province, 2005 to 2019

分组Group	年报告发病率/10万^-1 Annual reported incidence/ 100 000^-1		平均APC (95% CI) Average APC (95% CI)	P值 value	趋势1 Trend 1			趋势2 Trend 2			趋势3 Trend 3
分组Group	2005	2019	平均APC (95% CI) Average APC (95% CI)	P值 value	年Year	APC (95% CI)	P值 value	年Year	APC (95% CI)	P值 value	年Year	APC (95% CI)	P值 value
全部All	3.26	3.20	-1.30 (-2.70~0.10)	0.073	2005―2019	-1.30 (-2.70~0.10)	0.073
男性Male	4.76	3.89	-2.90 (-4.40~-1.40)	0.001	2005―2019	-2.90 (-4.40~-1.40)	0.001
女性Female	1.69	2.48	2.20 (0.70~3.70)	0.009	2005―2019	2.10 (0.60~3.70)	0.009
年龄组/岁 Age group/years
0~<20	0.27	0.21	-3.80 (-8.50~1.10)	0.116	2005―2019	-3.80 (-8.50~1.10)	0.116
20~<40	3.40	2.37	-2.60 (-9.60~4.80)	0.477	2005―2010	2.70 (-5.50~11.50)	0.478	2010―2013	-18.80 (-44.00~17.60)	0.225	2013―2019	2.00 (-4.20~8.60)	0.472
40~<60	4.75	4.51	-1.50 (-2.80~-0.20)	0.031	2005―2019	-1.50 (-2.80~-0.20)	0.031
≥60	5.63	4.95	-1.50 (-3.00~0.10)	0.071	2005―2019	-1.50 (-3.00~0.10)	0.071
男性年龄组/岁 Male age group/years
0~<20	0.39	0.34	-4.20 (-8.70~0.40)	0.072	2005―2019	-4.20 (-8.70~0.40)	0.072
20~<40	4.66	2.74	-3.90 (-10.40~2.90)	0.254	2005―2010	1.80 (-5.80~10.00)	0.600	2010―2013	-21.60 (-44.60~11.00)	0.142	2013―2019	1.30 (-4.50~7.40)	0.621
40~<60	7.14	5.46	-3.30 (-4.90~-1.70)	0.001	2005―2019	-3.30 (-4.90~-1.70)	0.001
≥60	8.93	6.41	-3.20 (-4.80~-1.50)	0.001	2005―2019	-3.20 (-4.80~-1.50)	0.001
女性年龄组/岁 Female age group/years
0~<20	0.15	0.06	-6.90 (-33.5~30.5)	0.656	2005―2019	-6.90 (-33.50~30.50)	0.656
20~<40	2.15	1.97	-2.00 (-4.20~0.20)	0.070	2005―2019	-2.00 (-4.20~0.20)	0.070
40~<60	2.24	3.52	3.70 (0.70~6.90)	0.017	2005―2007	16.90 (-6.80~46.70)	0.155	2007―2019	1.70 (0.30~3.10)	0.019
≥60	2.34	3.54	2.90 (-2.90~9.10)	0.335	2005―2007	22.60 (-12.10~71.10)	0.191	2007―2017	3.00 (-0.10~6.20)	0.054	2017―2019	-14.00 (-38.30~20.00)	0.320
注：1. HE, 戊型病毒性肝炎; APC, 年度变化百分比。 2.2020年受COVID-19疫情影响，病例数大幅下降，影响拐点计算，该年份数据剔除Joinpoint模型分析。 Notes: 1. HE, hepatitis E; APC, annual percent of changes. 2. In 2020, due to the impact of COVID-19, the number of cases decreased significantly, which affected the calculation of inflection points, and the Joinpoint model analysis was excluded from the data of this year.

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表 2 2005―2020年浙江省HE局部自相关分析

Table 2. Local autocorrelation analysis of HE in Zhejiang Province, 2005 to 2020

年份 Year	“高-高”聚集数 Number of "High-high" cluster	“低-低”聚集数 Number of "Low-low" cluster	“高-高”聚集地区 High-high clustering areas	“低-低”聚集地区 Low-low clustering areas
2005	5	3	湖州市(德清县、安吉县、长兴县、南浔区)和杭州市(下城区) Huzhou City (Deqing County, Anji County, Changxing County, Nanxun District) and Hangzhou City (Xiacheng District)	温州市(泰顺县)、丽水市(龙泉市)和绍兴市(上虞区) Wenzhou City (Taishun County), Lishui City(Longquan City) and Shaoxing City(Shangyu District)
2006	4	5	衢州市(江山市、常山县)和金华市(金东区、武义县) Quzhou City (Jiangshan City, Changshan County) and Jinhua City (Jindong District, Wuyi County)	绍兴市(新昌县、绍兴县、越城区、上虞区)和温州市(苍南县) Shaoxing City (Xinchang County, Shaoxing County, Yuecheng District, Shangyu District) and Wenzhou City (Cangnan County)
2007	5	5	杭州市(淳安县、临安区、西湖区)和衢州市(开化县、江山市) Hangzhou City (Chun′an County, Lin′an District, Xihu District) and Quzhou City (Kaihua County, Jiangshan City)	绍兴市(绍兴县、越城区)、温州市(文成县)、台州市(温岭市)和嘉兴市(秀洲区) Shaoxing City (Shaoxing County, Yuecheng District), Wenzhou City (Wencheng County), Taizhou City (Wenling City) and Jiaxing City (Xiuzhou District)
2008	3	10	杭州市(淳安县、富阳区、西湖区、临安区)、衢州市(江山市、常山县、衢江区)、湖州市(安吉县、长兴县、吴兴区)、台州市(三门县)和绍兴市(柯城区) Hangzhou City (Chun′an County, Fuyang District, Xihu District, Lin′an District), Quzhou City (Jiangshan City, Changshan County, Qujiang District), Huzhou City (Anji County, Changxing County, Wuxing District), Taizhou City (Sanmen County) and Shaoxing City (Kecheng District)	温州市(文成县、泰顺县、苍南县、平阳县)、丽水市(青田县、景宁畲族自治县、缙云县)、宁波市(余姚市)、金华市(永康市)和绍兴市(越城区) Wenzhou City (Wencheng County, Taishun County, Cangnan County, Pingyang County), Lishui City (Qingtian County, Jingning She Autonomous County, Jinyun County), Ningbo City (Yuyao City), Jinhua City (Yongkang City) and Shaoxing City (Yuecheng District)
2009	7	13	杭州市(淳安县、上城区、西湖区)、衢州市(江山市、常山县、衢江区)和绍兴市(柯城区) Hangzhou City (Chun′an County, Shangcheng District, Xihu District), Quzhou City (Jiangshan City, Changshan County, Qujiang District) and Shaoxing City (Kecheng District)	温州市(文成县、泰顺县、平阳县)、绍兴市(嵊州市、越城区、上虞区)、宁波市(余姚市、奉化市、镇海区、鄞州区、江北区)、金华市(东阳市)和舟山市(普陀区) Wenzhou City (Wencheng County, Taishun County, Pingyang County), Shaoxing City (Shengzhou City, Yuecheng District, Shangyu District), Ningbo City (Yuyao City, Fenghua City, Zhenhai District, Yinzhou District, Jiangbei District), Jinhua City (Dongyang City) and Zhoushan City (Putuo District)
2010	9	9	杭州市(下城区、上城区、拱墅区、滨江区、余杭区、江干区、西湖区)、衢州市(江山市)和台州市(三门县) Hangzhou City (Xiacheng District, Shangcheng District, Gongshu District, Binjiang District, Yuhang District, Jianggan District, Xihu District), Quzhou City (Jiangshan City) and Taizhou City (Sanmen County)	温州市(文成县、乐清市、苍南县、平阳县)、宁波市(慈溪市、余姚市、鄞州区、江北区)和舟山市(普陀区) Wenzhou City (Wencheng County, Yueqing City, Cangnan County, Pingyang County), Ningbo City (Cixi City, Yuyao City, Yinzhou District, Jiangbei District) and Zhoushan City (Putuo District)
2011	13	13	杭州市(桐庐县、淳安县、下城区、上城区、拱墅区、余杭区、西湖风景名胜区、西湖区、富阳区、临安区)、衢州市(开化县、衢江区)和湖州市(安吉县) Hangzhou City (Tonglu County, Chun′an County, Xiacheng District, Shangcheng District, Gongshu District, Yuhang District, West Lake Scenic Area, Xihu District, Fuyang District, Lin′an District), Quzhou City (Kaihua County, Qujiang District) and Huzhou City (Anji County)	宁波市(慈溪市、海曙区、余姚市、奉化市、北仑区、镇海区、鄞州区、江北区)、温州市(乐清市、龙湾区)、绍兴市(上虞区)、台州市(温岭市)和舟山市(普陀区) Ningbo City (Cixi City, Haishu District, Yuyao City, Fenghua City, Beilun District, Zhenhai District, Yinzhou District, Jiangbei District), Wenzhou City (Yueqing City, Longwan District), Shaoxing City (Shangyu District), Taizhou City (Wenling City) and Zhoushan City (Putuo District)
2012	10	2	杭州市(桐庐县、淳安县、富阳区、临安区、下城区、上城区、拱墅区、余杭区、西湖风景名胜区、西湖区) Hangzhou City (Tonglu County, Chun′an County, Fuyang District, Lin′an District, Xiacheng District, Shangcheng District, Gongshu District, Yuhang District, West Lake Scenic Area, Xihu District)	台州市(椒江区)和温州市(龙湾区) Taizhou City (Jiaojiang District) and Wenzhou City (Longwan District)
2013	9	5	杭州市(桐庐县、淳安县、下城区、建德市)、衢州市(江山市、常山县、衢江区、龙游县)和绍兴市(柯城区) Hangzhou City (Tonglu County, Chun′an County, Xiacheng District, Jiande City), Quzhou City (Jiangshan City, Changshan County, Qujiang District, Longyou County) and Shaoxing City (Kecheng District)	温州市(瓯海区、龙湾区、鹿城区)和舟山市(普陀区、定海区) Wenzhou City (Ouhai District, Longwan District, Lucheng District) and Zhoushan City (Putuo District, Dinghai District)
2014	13	5	杭州市(桐庐县、淳安县、富阳区、下城区、上城区、拱墅区、滨江区、西湖风景名胜区、西湖区)、衢州市(江山市、衢江区、常山县)和绍兴市(柯城区) Hangzhou City (Tonglu County, Chun′an County, Fuyang District, Xiacheng District, Shangcheng District, Gongshu District, Binjiang District, West Lake Scenic Area, Xihu District), Quzhou City (Jiangshan City, Qujiang District, Changshan County) and Shaoxing City (Kecheng District)	丽水市(青田县、缙云县)、温州市(永嘉县、龙湾区)和舟山市(普陀区) Lishui City (Qingtian County, Jinyun County), Wenzhou City (Yongjia County, Longwan District) and Zhoushan City (Putuo District)
2015	9	16	杭州市(淳安县、下城区、上城区、拱墅区、滨江区、余杭区、江干区、西湖风景名胜区、西湖区) Hangzhou City (Chun′an County, Xiacheng District, Shangcheng District, Gongshu District, Binjiang District, Yuhang District, Jianggan District, West Lake Scenic Area, Xihu District)	丽水市(青田县、云和县、龙泉市、松阳县、莲都区、缙云县)、金华市(东阳市、武义县、永康市)、绍兴市(嵊州市、越城区、上虞区)、温州市(瓯海区、龙湾区)和舟山市(普陀区、定海区) Lishui City (Qingtian County, Yunhe County, Longquan City, Songyang County, Liandu District, Jinyun County), Jinhua City (Dongyang City, Wuyi County, Yongkang City), Shaoxing City (Shengzhou City, Yuecheng District, Shangyu District), Wenzhou City (Ouhai District, Longwan District) and Zhoushan City (Putuo District, Dinghai District)
2016	11	15	杭州市(淳安县、临安区、下城区、上城区、拱墅区、滨江区、余杭区、江干区、西湖风景名胜区、西湖区)和湖州市(安吉县) Hangzhou City (Chun′an County, Lin′an District, Xiacheng District, Shangcheng District, Gongshu District, Binjiang District, Yuhang District, Jianggan District, West Lake Scenic Area, Xihu District) and Huzhou City (Anji County)	丽水市(青田县、景宁畲族自治县、龙泉市、松阳县、缙云县)、金华市(东阳市、武义县、永康市)、绍兴市(嵊州市、越城区、上虞区)、温州市(瑞安市、鹿城区、龙湾区)和舟山市(定海区) Lishui City (Qingtian County, Jingning She Autonomous County, Longquan City, Songyang County, Jinyun County), Jinhua City (Dongyang City, Wuyi County, Yongkang City), Shaoxing City (Shengzhou City, Yuecheng District, Shangyu District), Wenzhou City (Rui′an City, Lucheng District, Longwan District) and Zhoushan City (Dinghai District)
2017	13	10	杭州市(淳安县、建德市、富阳区、临安区、下城区、上城区、拱墅区、滨江区、余杭区、江干区、西湖风景名胜区、西湖区)和衢州市(常山县) Hangzhou City (Chun′an County, Jiande City, Fuyang District, Lin′an District, Xiacheng District, Shangcheng District, Gongshu District, Binjiang District, Yuhang District, Jianggan District, West Lake Scenic Area, Xihu District) and Quzhou City (Changshan County)	金华市(东阳市、金东区)、绍兴市(嵊州市、上虞区)、温州市(瑞安市、平阳县)、宁波市(奉化区)、丽水市(景宁畲族自治县)和舟山市(普陀区、定海区) Jinhua City (Dongyang City, Jindong District), Shaoxing City (Shengzhou City, Shangyu District), Wenzhou City (Rui′an City, Pingyang County), Ningbo City (Fenghua District), Lishui City (Jingning She Autonomous County) and Zhoushan City (Putuo District, Dinghai District)
2018	6	9	杭州市(淳安县、下城区、上城区、余杭区、江干区、西湖区) Hangzhou City (Chun′an County, Xiacheng District, Shangcheng District, Yuhang District, Jianggan District, Xihu District)	金华市(义乌市、东阳市)、绍兴市(柯桥区、嵊州市、上虞区)、丽水市(莲都区、缙云县)和舟山市(普陀区、定海区) Jinhua City (Yiwu City, Dongyang City), Shaoxing City (Keqiao District, Shengzhou City, Shangyu District), Lishui City (Liandu District, Jinyun County) and Zhoushan City (Putuo District, Dinghai District)
2019	2	10	杭州市(临安区、余杭区) Hangzhou City (Lin′an District, Yuhang District)	宁波市(海曙区、余姚市、北仑区、鄞州区、江北区)、金华市(义乌市、金东区、永康市)、绍兴市(嵊州市)和舟山市(普陀区) Ningbo City (Haishu District, Yuyao City, Beilun District, Yinzhou District, Jiangbei District), Jinhua City (Yiwu City, Jindong District, Yongkang City), Shaoxing City (Shengzhou City) and Zhoushan City (Putuo District)
2020	5	10	杭州市(桐庐县、淳安县、余杭区、西湖区)和湖州市(安吉县) Hangzhou City (Tonglu County, Chun′an County, Yuhang District, Xihu District) and Huzhou City (Anji County)	温州市(文成县、泰顺县、瑞安市、平阳县)、丽水市(庆元县、景宁畲族自治县、云和县)、绍兴市(嵊州市、上虞区)和金华市(东阳市) Wenzhou City (Wencheng County, Taishun County, Rui′an City, Pingyang County), Lishui City (Qingyuan County, Jingning She Autonomous County, Yunhe County), Shaoxing City (Shengzhou City, Shangyu District) and Jinhua City (Dongyang City)
注：HE, 戊型病毒性肝炎。 Note: HE, hepatitis E.

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