生命历程理论下我国老年人生活自理能力变化的年龄-队列效应

谢瑞瑞; 逄玥; 王琼; 吴炳义; 刘军; 武继磊; 乔晓春

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.10.002

生命历程理论下我国老年人生活自理能力变化的年龄-队列效应

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.10.002

谢瑞瑞¹,
逄玥¹,
王琼¹,
吴炳义²,
刘军^3, ,,
武继磊⁴,
乔晓春⁴

1.
潍坊医学院管理学院，潍坊 261053
2.
潍坊医学院社会医学教研室，潍坊 261053
3.
潍坊医学院党委办公室，潍坊 261053
4.
北京大学人口研究所人口统计学教研室，北京 100871

基金项目:

国家社会科学基金重大项目 17ZDA124

国家社会科学基金一般项目 18BRK013

中国残联研究课题 21&ZC014

详细信息

通讯作者:
刘军，E-mail：Liujun615@163.com

中图分类号: R195
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2021-12-07
- 修回日期: 2022-05-15
- 网络出版日期: 2023-10-23
- 刊出日期: 2023-10-10

Age cohort effect of the change of self-care ability of the elderly population in China under the life course theory

1.
School of Management, Weifang Medical College, Weifang 261053
2.
Department of Social Medicine, Weifang Medical College, Weifang 261053
3.
Office of the Party Committee of Weifang Medical College, Weifang 261053
4.
Department of Demography, Institute of Population Studies, Peking University, Beijing 100871

Funds:

Major Project of National Social Science Foundation of China 17ZDA124

General Project of National Social Science Foundation of China 18BRK013

Research Project of China Disabled Persons′ Federation 21&ZC014

More Information

Corresponding author: LIU Jun, E-mail: Liujun615@163.com

摘要

摘要: 目的探究影响我国老年人生活自理能力的多种因素，分析生活自理能力变化的年龄、队列独立效应。方法基于2002-2018年中国老年人健康长寿影响因素调查(the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey, CLHLS)追踪数据，以Stata 14.0软件为工具，运用分层生长曲线模型进行统计分析。结果年龄、队列对老年人生活自理能力具有独立效应。随着年龄的增长，我国老年人生活自理能力变差，生活自理能力的城乡差异变大；较早、较晚出生队列的老年人生活自理能力差，中间队列的生活自理能力较好；生活自理能力的城乡差异随着队列的年轻化而变小。个体行为生活方式、社会经济地位、性别、慢性病数量均对生活自理能力具有明显影响。结论我国老年人生活自理能力的影响因素具有多重性、混杂性，年龄效应和队列独立效应具有统计学意义；老年人生活自理能力的学术研究不仅要注重年龄变动趋势，而且更应关注老年人出生队列的差异性；老年失能的社会预防策略不仅应关注老年人的个体行为特征，更应把握其队列群体特征。
- 生活自理能力 /
- 生命历程 /
- 分层生长曲线模型 /
- 老年人
Abstract: Objective To explore various factors affecting the self-care ability of the elderly in China, and to isolate the age and cohort independent effects of the change of self-care ability. Methods A layered growth curve model was utilized for statistical analysis of data derived from the Chinese Longitudinal Health Longevity Survey (CLHLS) (2002-2018), a multi-cohort tracking study. Stata14.0 software was used as the analytical tool. Results Age and cohort have independent effects on the self-care capacity of the elderly. As age increases, the self-care ability of elderly people in China deteriorates, with differences between urban and rural areas widening. Elderly people born in earlier and later cohorts have poor self-care abilities, while those born in the middle cohorts have better self-care abilities. The difference in self-care ability between urban and rural areas decreases as the cohort becomes younger. Individual behavior and lifestyle, socioeconomic status, gender, and the number of chronic diseases have significant effects on self-care ability. Conclusions The influencing factors of the self-care ability of the elderly population in China are multiple and mixed, and the age effect and cohort independent effect are significant. Academic research on the disability of the elderly population should not only pay attention to the changing trend of the age but also pay attention to the differences in the birth cohort of the elderly population. The social prevention strategy of senile disability should not only pay attention to the individual behavior characteristics of the elderly population but also grasp the group characteristics of the cohort.
- Self-care ability /
- Life course /
- Layered growth curve model /
- Elderly people

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图 1 我国老年人生活自理能力分队列的年龄变化趋势

Figure 1. Age change trend of the elderly self-care ability in different cohort

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图 2 老年人口生活自理能力分城乡的年龄变化趋势图

Figure 2. Age change trend of self-care ability of the elderly population in urban and rural areas

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图 3 我国老年人口生活自理能力队列及城乡差异比较

Figure 3. Cohorts of self-care ability of elderly population in China and comparison of differences between urban and rural areas

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表 1 变量赋值及基本情况

Table 1. Variable assignment and basic information

变量名称Variable	全部[人数(占比/%)] All samples [Number of people (proportion/%)]	城镇[人数(占比/%)] Urban area [Number of people (proportion/%)]	农村[人数(占比/%)] Rural area [Number of people (proportion/%)]
生活自理能力^① Activities of daily living ^①	0.70±0.50	0.81±1.06	0.62±1.42
年龄^① Age ^①	85.33±10.69	85.54±10.62	85.17±10.74
队列Cohort
-1900/%	2 445(7.37)	1 057(7.34)	1 388(7.40)
1901-1910/%	6 181(18.64)	2 720(18.88)	3 461(18.71)
1911-1920/%	8 329(25.12)	4 142(28.75)	4 142(22.09)
1921-1930/%	8 931(26.94)	3 538(24.55)	5 393(28.77)
1931-1940/%	7 270(21.93)	2 952(20.48)	4 318(23.03)
性别(男=1)/% Gender (male=1) /%	14 729(44.42)	6 433(44.65)	8 296(44.25)
受教育程度(1年及以上=1)/% Education level (1 year and above=1) /%	13 719(41.38)	7 161(49.70)	6 558(34.98)
婚姻状况(在婚=1)/% Marital status (in marriage=1) /%	11 430(34.47)	4 990(34.63)	6 440(34.35)
吸烟(是=1)/% Smoking (yes=1) /%	6 221(18.77)	2 392(16.61)	3 829(20.42)
酗酒(是=1)/% Excessive drinking (yes=1) /%	6 482(19.58)	2 605(18.11)	3 877(20.72)
锻炼(是=1)/% Exercise (yes=1) /%	10 889(32.91)	6 067(42.19)	4 822(25.78)
独居(是=1)/% Whether to live alone (yes=1) /%	4 711(14.22)	1 834(12.74)	2 877(15.36)
经常吃新鲜蔬菜(是=1)/% Frequent consumption of fresh vegetables (yes=1) /%	28 566(86.15)	12 547(85.45)	16 019(87.03)
经常吃新鲜水果(是=1)/% Frequent consumption of fresh fruits (yes=1) /%	11 541(34.81)	6 480(44.98)	5 061(27.00)
经常家务劳动(是=1)/% Regular household chores (yes=1) /%	16 195(48.86)	6 528(45.31)	9 667(51.59)
经常户外活动(是=1)/% Frequent outdoor activities (yes=1) /%	18 345(56.53)	8 076(57.03)	10 269(56.21)
经济水平Economic level
好=3 Good=3	5 597(16.88)	2 931(20.34)	2 666(14.22)
一般=2 General=2	21 914(66.62)	9 463(66.27)	12 451(66.89)
差=1 Poor=1	5 470(16.50)	1 929(13.39)	3 541(18.89)
慢性病数量^① Number of chronic diseases ^①	1.20±1.38	1.39±1.52	1.06±1.25
注：①采用(x±s)表示。 Note：① (x±s).

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表 2 分层生长曲线模型对老年人生活自理能力年龄-时期效应分析

Table 2. Analysis of age period effect on elderly self-care ability using layered growth curve model

模型设置Model settings	模型1 Model 1	模型2 Model 2	模型3 Model 3
固定效应Fixed effect截距模型Intercept Model
截距项Intercept	-0.355(0.116) ^①	-0.036(0.115)	0.439(0.122) ^②
队列Cohort	0.392(0.064) ^②	0.431(0.061) ^②	0.421(0.065) ^②
队列平方Cohort square	-0.040(0.009) ^②	-0.032(0.009) ^②	-0.034(0.009) ^②
居住地Place of residence	0.192(0.020) ^②	0.154(0.019) ^②	0.331(0.054) ^②
线性增长模型Linear growth model
年龄Age	0.069(0.002) ^②	0.062(0.002) ^②	0.064(0.002) ^②
年龄平方Age squared	0.002(0.001) ^②	0.169(0.010) ^②	0.001(0.025) ^②
队列×城乡Cohort× urban and rural			-0.052(0.015) ^②
年龄平方×队列Age squared×cohort			0.001(0.005) ^③
控制变量Control variable非时变变量Non time-varying variable
性别Gender		-0.100(0.022) ^②	-0.101(0.022) ^②
受教育程度Education level		0.023(0.021)	0.024(0.021)
时变变量Time-varying variable
吸烟Smoking		0.001(0.019)	-0.001(0.018)
酗酒Excessive drinking		-0.038(0.017) ^②	-0.039(0.017) ^①
锻炼Physical exercise		-0.310(0.014) ^②	-0.307(0.014) ^②
慢性病数量Number of chronic diseases		0.156(0.005) ^②	0.157(0.005) ^②
婚姻状态Marital status		-0.036(0.020) ^①	-0.034(0.020) ^①
经济水平Economic level		-0.030(0.009) ^②	-0.031(0.009) ^②
独居Living alone		-0.235(0.021) ^②	-0.234(0.021) ^②
新鲜水果Fresh fruit		0.024(0.015)	0.023(0.015)
新鲜蔬菜Fresh vegetables		-0.165(0.021) ^②	-0.165(0.021) ^②
家务劳动Housework		-0.287(0.016) ^②	-0.286(0.016) ^②
户外活动Outdoor activities		-0.237(0.015) ^②	-0.235(0.015) ^②
随机效应Random effect
层一：个体间Layer 1: Between individuals	0.050(0.003) ^②	0.036(0.004) ^②	0.037(0.004) ^②
层二：截距Layer 2: Intercept	0.763(0.016) ^②	0.511(0.019) ^②	0.510(0.019) ^②
模型残差Model residual	1.094(0.007) ^②	1.137(0.008) ^②	1.138(0.008) ^②
拟合度Fitting
AIC	113 934.9	108 332.2	108 323
BIC	114 019	108 525	108 532.5
注：A(B), 回归系数(标准误); AIC, 赤池信息准则; BIC, 贝叶斯准则。 ① P < 0.05。② P < 0.01。③P < 0.10。 Notes: A(B), Regression coefficient (standard error); AIC, Akaike information guidelines; BIC, Bayesian guidelines. ① P < 0.05. ② P < 0.01. ③P < 0.10.

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