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摘要:
目的 探究2004—2019年中国布鲁菌病(布病)发病的时空分布特征及影响因素,为中国布病发病高危区域的防控政策以及精准管控提供参考依据。 方法 依据2004—2019年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)布病标准化发病比(standardized morbidity ratio, SMR)数据,运用空间自相关和空间回归模型对中国布病的时空分布特征及其影响因素进行分析。 结果 2004—2019年中国布病报告发病率呈先上升后下降趋势。空间自相关模型分析结果显示2004—2019年中国布病SMR分布存在显著的空间聚集性且均呈空间正相关,“高-高”聚集区主要位于内蒙古自治区及相邻省份的北方地区,而“低-低”聚集区主要分布在湖南省、贵州省等南方省份。空间回归模型分析结果显示平均气温、相对湿度、耕地面积和牲畜饲养情况与中国布病SMR呈正相关,年末人口数、人均地区生产总值和森林面积与中国布病SMR呈负相关。 结论 建议针对重点高危区域采取布病防控措施,加强不同畜种间的防疫监测,坚持宣传有关布病的健康知识,提升人群的自我防范意识,以减少布病的发生。 Abstract:Objective To explore the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and influencing factors of the incidence of Brucellosis in China from 2004 to 2019, and to provide a theoretical reference for the formulation of prevention and control policies and taking accurate control measures in the high-risk areas of Brucellosis in China. Methods Based on the standardized morbidity ratio (SMR) of Brucellosis in 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in China from 2004 to 2019, spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial regression analysis were carried out to explore the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of Brucellosis in China. Results The incidence of Brucellosis in China showed an increasing trend first and then decreased from 2004 to 2019. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the distribution of Brucellosis in China from 2004 to 2019 had a significant positive spatial clustering. The "High-High" clusters were mainly located in the Northern regions of Inner Mongolia and its neighboring provinces, while the "Low-Low" clusters were mainly distributed in the Southern regions such as Hunan, Guizhou, and Guangdong. In addition, spatial regression analysis indicated that the average temperature, relative humidity, cultivated land area, and livestock feeding were positively correlated with the national Brucellosis SMR, while the population, per capita gross domestic product and forest area were negatively correlated. Conclusions The results suggest that targeted prevention and control measures in key areas, epidemic prevention monitoring for different animal species, and the enhancement of health education and self-prevention awareness can reduce the occurrence of Brucellosis. -
表 1 2004—2019年中国布病SMR的时空分布情况
Table 1. Spatiotemporal distribution of SMR of Brucellosis in China from 2004 to 2019
年份
Year最小值
Min最大值
Maxx±s M SMR最高的前3个省(自治区、直辖市)
Top 3 provinces with the highest SMR (Autonomous region and municipality rigions)2004 0 21.000 0 1.630 0±4.132 0 0.010 0 内蒙古自治区、西藏自治区、黑龙江省
Inner Mongolia、Tibet、Heilongjiang2005 0 25.446 2 1.432 3±4.716 9 0.013 8 内蒙古自治区、黑龙江省、山西省
Inner Mongolia、Heilongjiang、Shanxi2006 0 22.642 0 1.362 1±4.255 2 0.016 2 内蒙古自治区、山西省、黑龙江省
Inner Mongolia、Shanxi、Heilongjiang2007 0 22.273 7 1.369 0±4.207 8 0.016 1 内蒙古自治区、山西省、黑龙江省
Inner Mongolia、Shanxi、Heilongjiang2008 0 21.621 5 1.382 0±4.068 4 0.011 1 内蒙古自治区、山西省、黑龙江省
Inner Mongolia、Shanxi、Heilongjiang2009 0 24.967 2 1.443 2±4.595 6 0.012 5 内蒙古自治区、山西省、吉林省
Inner Mongolia、Shanxi、Jilin2010 0 25.938 8 1.448 4±4.743 2 0.013 2 内蒙古自治区、黑龙江省、山西省
Inner Mongolia、Heilongjiang、Shanxi2011 0 24.526 7 1.475 1±4.484 6 0.037 3 内蒙古自治区、山西省、黑龙江省
Inner Mongolia、Shanxi、Heilongjiang2012 0 16.455 7 1.364 6±3.260 1 0.056 0 内蒙古自治区、黑龙江省、山西省
Inner Mongolia、Heilongjiang、Shanxi2013 0.002 6 11.107 5 1.363 8±2.547 5 0.048 7 内蒙古自治区、山西省、黑龙江省
Inner Mongolia、Shanxi、Heilongjiang2014 0 9.581 8 1.422 4±2.579 5 0.079 8 内蒙古自治区、新疆维吾尔自治区、宁夏回族自治区
Inner Mongolia、Xinjiang、Ningxia2015 0.003 0 10.336 1 1.481 2±2.688 8 0.106 6 宁夏回族自治区、新疆维吾尔自治区、内蒙古自治区
Ningxia、Xinjiang、Inner Mongolia2016 0.014 4 10.188 8 1.469 4±2.678 3 0.171 8 新疆维吾尔自治区、宁夏回族自治区、内蒙古自治区
Xinjiang、Ningxia、Inner Mongolia2017 0.007 4 10.397 3 1.508 7±2.798 3 0.164 7 内蒙古自治区、宁夏回族自治区、新疆维吾尔自治区
Inner Mongolia、Ningxia、Xinjiang2018 0.012 1 14.024 2 1.520 9±3.019 0 0.209 0 内蒙古自治区、宁夏回族自治区、新疆维吾尔自治区
Inner Mongolia、Ningxia、Xinjiang2019 0.003 1 16.993 8 1.650 9±3.492 2 0.265 6 内蒙古自治区、宁夏回族自治区、新疆维吾尔自治区
Inner Mongolia、Ningxia、Xinjiang注:SMR,标准化发病比。
Note: SMR, standardized morbidity ratio.表 2 2004—2019年中国布病SMR的Moran′s I空间自相关分析
Table 2. Moran′s I spatial autocorrelation analysis of SMR of Brucellosis in China from 2004 to 2019
年份 Year Z值 value Moran′s I P值 value 2004 2.856 6 0.201 9 0.013 2005 3.746 2 0.188 7 0.008 2006 3.655 9 0.204 6 0.010 2007 3.572 9 0.206 1 0.011 2008 4.501 6 0.251 2 0.003 2009 4.274 6 0.210 6 0.003 2010 4.176 2 0.189 1 0.004 2011 4.136 5 0.196 5 0.002 2012 4.963 1 0.353 4 0.002 2013 4.183 4 0.428 7 0.001 2014 3.130 8 0.334 2 0.009 2015 2.602 8 0.272 6 0.028 2016 2.345 7 0.242 1 0.030 2017 2.962 4 0.311 4 0.013 2018 3.753 4 0.351 8 0.007 2019 3.527 5 0.301 6 0.007 注:SMR,标准化发病比。
Note: SMR, standardized morbidity ratio.表 3 LM检验
Table 3. LM test
检验 Test 统计量值 Statistic P值 value SEM Moran′s I 13.591 < 0.001 LM 170.671 < 0.001 稳健性 LM Robust LM 10.851 0.003 SLM LM 277.852 < 0.001 稳健性 LM Robust LM 118.031 < 0.001 注:SEM, 空间误差模型; SLM, 空间滞后模型; LM, 拉格朗日乘子。
Note: SEM, spatial error model; SLM, spatial lag model; LM, Lagrange multiplier.表 4 稳健性检验
Table 4. Robust test
类型 Type LR Wald 值 value 比较SDM与SLM
Compare SDM with SLMχ2值 value 78.14 69.97 P值 value < 0.001 < 0.001 比较SDM与SEM
Compare SDM with SEMχ2值 value 80.43 70.73 P值 value < 0.001 < 0.001 注:SDM, 空间杜宾模型; SLM, 空间滞后模型; SEM, 空间误差模型; LR, 似然比。
Note: SDM, spatial Dubin model; SLM, spatial lag model; SEM: spatial error model; LR, likelihood ratio.表 5 最优效应选择的检验分析
Table 5. Test analysis of optimal effect selection
类型 Type χ2值 value P值 value 豪斯曼检验 Hausman test 50.36 < 0.001 比较个体固定效应与双固定效应 Compare individual fixed effect with two-way fixed effects model 26.21 0.004 比较时间固定效应与双固定效应 Compare time fixed effect with two-way fixed effects model 571.86 < 0.001 表 6 SDM结果
Table 6. Results of SDM
SMR β sx Z值 value 95% CI P值 value 主要效应 Main effects 平均温度/℃ Average temperature/℃ 0.269 0.090 3.010 0.094~0.445 0.003 降水量/mm Precipitation/mm -0.000 0.000 -0.210 -0.001~0.001 0.835 相对湿度/% Relative humidity/% 0.054 0.021 2.570 0.013~0.096 0.010 年末人口数/万人 Year-end population/ten thousand people 0.000 0.000 0.640 -0.001~0.001 0.522 人均GDP/元 Per capita GDP/yuan -0.000 0.000 -0.170 -0.000~0.000 0.861 耕地面积/十平方千米 Agricultural acreage/dakm2 0.000 0.000 0.550 -0.000~0.000 0.581 森林面积/百平方千米 Forestry area/hkm2 -0.008 0.001 -5.620 -0.010~-0.005 < 0.001 牲畜养殖/万只 Livestock production/ten thousand head 0.001 0.001 1.110 -0.001~0.002 0.269 空间自回归项 Wx 平均温度/℃ Average temperature/℃ -0.301 0.206 -1.460 -0.705~0.104 0.145 降水量/mm Precipitation/mm -0.001 0.001 -1.690 -0.003~0.000 0.091 相对湿度/% Relative humidity/% -0.015 0.049 -0.310 -0.112~0.081 0.756 年末人口数/万人 Year-end population/ten thousand people -0.003 0.001 -2.590 -0.005~-0.001 0.009 人均GDP/元 Per capita GDP/yuan -0.000 0.000 -2.880 -0.000~0.000 0.004 耕地面积/十平方千米 Agricultural acreage/dakm2 0.001 0.000 3.210 0.000~0.001 0.001 森林面积/百平方千米 Forestry area/hkm2 0.000 0.004 0.010 -0.007~0.007 0.991 牲畜饲养/万只 Livestock production/ten thousand head 0.005 0.002 2.450 0.001~0.008 0.014 空间自回归系数值 Spatial rho -0.184 0.060 -3.080 -0.301~-0.067 0.002 个体效应特异误差 Variance Sigma2_e 1.971 0.126 15.680 1.725~2.218 <0.001 注:SMR, 标准化发病比; GDP, 地区生产总值。
Note: SMR, standardized morbidity ratio; GDP, gross domestic product.表 7 各影响因素对全国布鲁菌病SMR的效应分解
Table 7. Effect decomposition of the influencing factors on SMR of Berculosis in China
变量 Variable 直接效应 Direct effects 间接效应 Indirect effects 总效应 Total effects 平均温度/℃ Average temperature/℃ 0.315 591 5(0.001) -0.100 942 5(0.473) 0.214 649 1(0.122) 降水量/mm Precipitation/mm 0.000 004 0(0.990) -0.000 603 3(0.331) -0.000 599 3(0.342) 相对湿度/% Relative humidity/% 0.053 192 2(0.010) -0.023 810 6(0.555) 0.029 381 6(0.520) 年末人口数/万人 Year-end population/ten thousand people 0.000 013 7(0.975) -0.003 364 5(0.001) -0.003 350 8(0.001) 人均GDP/元 Per capita GDP/yuan 0.000 003 2(0.793) 0.000 006 3(0.693) 0.000 009 5(0.328) 耕地面积/十平方千米 Agricultural acreage/dakm2 0.000 074 9(0.584) 0.000 006 3(< 0.001) 0.000 886 9(< 0.001) 森林面积/百平方千米 Forestry area/hkm2 -0.005 853 5(< 0.001) 0.007 271 8(0.001) 0.001 418 3(0.437) 牲畜养殖情况/万只 Livestock production/ten thousand head -0.000 571 2(0.405) -0.000 202 2(0.865) -0.000 773 4(0.521) 注:1. SMR, 标准化发病比; GDP, 地区生产总值。
2.. 括号内为P值。
Note: 1. SMR, standardized morbidity ratio; GDP, gross domestic product.
2. P value in parentheses. -
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