2016—2021年安徽省百日咳空间自相关及时空聚集性

李涛; 候立娟; 李清茹; 玄坤; 庞兴亚; 查震球; 唐继海

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.11.002

2016—2021年安徽省百日咳空间自相关及时空聚集性

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.11.002

1.
安徽省疾病预防控制中心疫苗临床评价中心，合肥 230601
2.
合肥市疾病预防控制中心卫生应急办，合肥 230061

李涛和候立娟为共同第一作者

详细信息

通讯作者:
唐继海，E-mail: phgis@qq.com

中图分类号: R183.3
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-10-09
- 修回日期: 2022-12-25
- 网络出版日期: 2023-11-20
- 刊出日期: 2023-11-10

Spatial autocorrelation and spatial-temporal clustering analysis of pertussis in Anhui Province from 2016 to 2021

1.
Vaccine Clinical Evaluation Center, Anhui Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230601, China
2.
Health Emergency Office, Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hefei 230061, China

LI Tao and HOU Lijuan contributed equally to this article

More Information

Corresponding author: TANG Jihai, E-mail: phgis@qq.com

摘要

摘要: 目的利用地理信息系统(geographic information system, GIS)分析2016—2021年安徽省百日咳空间自相关及时空聚集性，为防控提供参考依据。方法从中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集2016—2021年安徽省百日咳报告病例，利用GIS建立数据库，进行空间自相关及时空聚集性分析。结果 2016—2021年安徽省共报告百日咳923例，年均报告发病率为0.25/10万；每年5—8月为发病高峰；空间自相关分析结果显示，安徽省2016、2018、2019及2021年百日咳发病呈显著空间聚集性。2016、2018—2021年共扫描出28个“高-高”聚集区，主要集中于六安市、芜湖市、宣城市、黄山市、滁州市、蚌埠市、合肥市、淮南市的部分县区。安徽省2016—2021年百日咳发病共扫描出13个显著性聚集区，Ⅰ类聚集区主要位于六安市、蚌埠市、滁州市、芜湖市、马鞍山市、合肥市的部分县区，聚集时间以6—9月为主，2018、2021年聚集时间从6月持续至12月。结论 2016—2021年安徽省百日咳发病以夏季聚集为主，聚集区域主要集中在省际交界县区及交通便捷的省会及大型城市周边，应加强对重点地区的监测及防控工作。
- 百日咳 /
- 地理信息系统 /
- 空间自相关 /
- 时空聚集性
Abstract: Objective To analyze the temporal and spatial clustering and spatial correlation of pertussis in Anhui Province from 2016 to 2021 by using geographic information system (GIS), and to provide reference for prevention and control. Methods The reported cases of pertussis in Anhui Province from 2016 to 2021 were collected from the Chinese Disease Control and Prevention Information System, and a database was established by GIS to analyze spatial autocorrelation and spatiotemporal clustering. Results From 2016 to 2021, a total of 923 cases of pertussis were reported in Anhui Province, with an average annual reported incidence of 0.25/100 000; the peak incidence was from May to August every year; Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the incidence of pertussis in Anhui Province in 2016, 2018, 2019 and 2021 showed significant spatial clustering. In 2016 and 2018-2021, a total of 28 "High-High" aggregation areas were scanned; It was mainly concentrated in some counties and districts of Lu′an, Wuhu, Xuancheng, Huangshan, Chuzhou, Bengbu, Hefei and Huainan; A total of 13 significant aggregation areas were scanned for the incidence of pertussis in Anhui Province from 2016 to 2021, and the Class Ⅰ aggregation areas were mainly located in some counties and districts of Lu′an, Bengbu, Chuzhou, Wuhu, Ma′anshan, and Hefei. The gathering time was mainly from June to September, and the gathering continued until December in 2018 and 2021. Conclusions From 2016 to 2021, the incidence of pertussis in Anhui Province is mainly gathered in summer. The agglomeration area is mainly concentrated in the inter-provincial border counties and districts, and the provincial capital with convenient transportation and around large cities. The monitoring and prevention work in key areas should be strengthened.
- Pertussis /
- Geographic information system /
- Spatial autocorrelation /
- Spatial-temporal clustering

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图 1 2016—2021年安徽省百日咳报告病例数和发病率

Figure 1. Number and incidence of pertussis reported in Anhui Province from 2016 to 2021

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 2016—2021年安徽省百日咳报告病例数的月分布图

Figure 2. Monthly distribution of reported cases of pertussis in Anhui Province from 2016 to 2021

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2016—2021年安徽省百日咳局部空间自相关分析

“()”内为县区数。

Figure 3. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis of pertussis in Anhui Province from 2016 to 2021

"()" the number in the bracket is number of counties.

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 4 安徽省2016—2021年百日咳时空扫描统计分析图

Figure 4. Statistical analysis chart of spatio-temporal scanning of pertussis in Anhui Province in 2016—2021

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2016—2021年安徽省百日咳发病全局空间自相关Moran′s I指数

Table 1. Global spatial autocorrelation Moran′s I index of pertussis incidence in Anhui Province from 2016 to 2021

年份 Year	Moran′s I	s	Z值 value	P值 value
2016	0.228	0.057	4.120	0.006
2017	0.001	0.064	0.154	0.424
2018	0.303	0.064	4.882	0.002
2019	0.356	0.065	5.604	0.001
2020	-0.019	0.060	-0.130	0.485
2021	0.198	0.057	3.647	0.005

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 2016—2021年安徽省百日咳时空扫描结果

Table 2. Spatial-temporal scan results of pertussis in Anhui Province from 2016 to 2021

年份 Year	聚集时间(月/日—月/日) Gather time (mm/d-mm/d)	覆盖区域数 Coverage number	半径/km Radius/km	期望病例数 Expected cases	报告病例数 Number of cases	波及人口 Population	RR值 value	LLR值 value	P值 value
2016
Ⅰ类Class Ⅰ	1/1—4/30	3	45.90	0.31	9	2 299 902	44.92	23.40	< 0.001
2017
Ⅰ类Class Ⅰ	6/1—6/30	6	28.67	0.21	8	2 426 237	43.52	21.86	< 0.001
Ⅱ类Class Ⅱ	3/1—8/31	4	52.65	1.51	12	2 850 100	9.55	15.33	< 0.001
Ⅱ类Class Ⅱ	8/1—8/31	2	16.76	0.05	3	513 000	68.84	9.67	0.040
2018
Ⅰ类Class Ⅰ	7/1—12/31	10	43.94	8.85	42	5 274 895	5.69	35.15	< 0.001
Ⅱ类Class Ⅱ	7/1—12/31	9	76.70	3.64	24	2 170 571	7.31	25.93	< 0.001
Ⅱ类Class Ⅱ	8/1—9/30	6	56.17	1.58	11	2 842 770	7.28	12.13	0.007
2019
Ⅰ类Class Ⅰ	6/1—6/30	6	28.67	0.21	8	2 484 798	42.67	21.73	< 0.001
Ⅱ类Class Ⅱ	3/1—8/31	4	52.65	1.51	12	2 882 999	9.47	15.26	< 0.001
Ⅱ类Class Ⅱ	7/1—8/31	14	79.66	1.24	9	7 017 070	8.24	10.56	< 0.001
2021
Ⅰ类Class Ⅰ	7/1—12/31	5	39.62	10.73	125	4 855 235	21.08	223.18	< 0.001
Ⅱ类Class Ⅱ	9/1—12/31	1	0	0.90	22	615 274	26.50	50.04	< 0.001
Ⅱ类Class Ⅱ	8/1—12/31	7	53.26	8.70	41	4 732 984	5.39	33.38	< 0.001

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