1990―2019年中国人群道路交通伤害的疾病负担及变化趋势

任义涛; 朱荣芳; 林金雄; 申树群

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.11.008

1990―2019年中国人群道路交通伤害的疾病负担及变化趋势

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2023.11.008

1.
南方医科大学卫生管理学院，广州 510515
2.
南方医科大学皮肤病医院, 广州 510091

任义涛和朱荣芳为共同第一作者

基金项目:

2022年度广东省医学科研基金 C2022065

2021年度教育科学规划课题 2021JKZG008

2022年度广东省普通高校特色创新类项目 2022KTSCX017

详细信息

通讯作者:
申树群，E-mail: shuqunshen@163.com

中图分类号: R195.4;R181
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2022-06-05
- 修回日期: 2022-11-04
- 网络出版日期: 2023-11-20
- 刊出日期: 2023-11-10

Analysis of the disease burden and changing trends of road traffic injuries in Chinese population from 1990 to 2019

1.
School of Health Services Management, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
2.
Dermatology Hospital of Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510091, China

REN Yitao and ZHU Rongfang contributed equally to this work

Funds:

2022 Guangdong Provincial Medical Research Fund C2022065

2021 Education Science Planning Project 2021JKZG008

2022 Guangdong Province Ordinary University Characteristic Innovation Project 2022KTSCX017

More Information

Corresponding author: SHEN Shuqun, E-mail: shuqunshen@163.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析1990―2019年中国人群道路交通伤害(road traffic injuries, RTIs)的疾病负担及变化趋势，为中国RTIs防控提出参考依据。方法利用2019年全球疾病负担(Global Burden of Disease 2019, GBD 2019)数据库，选取中国1990―2019年RTIs的死亡数、死亡率、伤残调整生命年(disability adjusted of life years, DALYs)、伤残损失寿命年(years lost due to disability, YLDs)、过早死亡损失寿命年(years of life lost, YLLs)、平均年度变化百分比(average annual percentage change, AAPC)、DALYs率、YLDs率、YLLs率等指标，利用Joinpoint模型分析1990―2019年中国人群RTIs的疾病负担及变化趋势。结果 1990―2019年中国人群RTIs的死亡率(AAPC=-0.47%, P＜0.001)、DALYs率(AAPC=-0.87%, P＜0.001)、YLL率(AAPC=-1.47%, P＜0.001)呈先升后降的趋势，YLDs率(AAPC=2.85%, P＜0.001)则逐年增加。2019年中国人群RTIs死亡数为25.00万人，因RTIs造成的YLL占DALY的81.64%；男性的死亡数(率)、YLL数(率)为女性的3倍，YLD数、YLDs率亦高于女性。中国RTIs的死亡率、DALYs率以及YLLs率在0~14岁儿童均有所减轻。老年群体中死亡率、YLLs率在＜65岁人群中呈下降趋势，DALYs率以60岁为界，在老年人口中呈上升趋势，YLDs率在各年龄段呈上升趋势。结论 1990―2019年中国人群RTIs疾病负担总体呈下降趋势，但仍然面临着总体疾病负担较高、老年群体疾病负担加重、男性疾病负担远高于女性等问题，需进一步加强对RTIs的防治措施。
- 道路交通伤害 /
- 疾病负担 /
- 变化趋势
Abstract: Objective To analyze the changing trend of disease burden of road traffic injuries in Chinese population from 1990 to 2019, and to propose a basis for the prevention and control of road traffic injuries in China. Methods The Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD) was used to select the number of deaths, mortality rate, disability adjusted of life years (DALYs), years lost due to disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), average annual percentage change (AAPC), DALYs rate, YLDs rate, and YLLs rate of road traffic injuries in China from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint models were used to analyze the disease burden of road traffic injuries in Chinese population and the trend of change from 1990 to 2019. Results The mortality rate (AAPC=-0.47%, P < 0.05), DALYs rate (AAPC=-0.87%, P < 0.05), and YLLs rate (AAPC=-1.47%, P < 0.05) of road traffic injuries in Chinese population from 1990 to 2019 showed a trend of increasing and then decreasing, while the YLDs rate (AAPC=2.85%, P < 0.05) increased year by year. The number of traffic injury deaths in Chinese population in 2019 was 25.00 thousand. YLLs due to road traffic injuries accounted for 81.64% of DALYs. The numbers of deaths (rate) and YLLs (rate) in men were three times higher than those in women, and the YLDs and YLDs rates were also significantly higher than those in women. In China, the road traffic death rate, DALYs rate and YLLs rate among children aged 0 to 14 have all shown a decrease. In the elderly population, the death rate and YLLs rate exhibited a upward trend in individuals above the age of 65, while the DALYs rate displayed an increasing trend in the elderly population up to the age of 60. Additionally, the YLDs rate demonstrated an upward trend across all age groups. Conclusions The overall trend of road traffic injury disease burden in China′s population from 1990 to 2019 is decreasing. However, the overall road traffic injury disease burden is still high. The road traffic injury disease burden is increasing in old age group. The road traffic injury disease burden is higher in men than that in women. The traffic injury prevention and control measures should be strengthened.
- Road traffic injuries /
- Burden of disease /
- Changing trends

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图 1 1990―2019年中国人群RTIs的疾病负担总体变化趋势

RTIs, 道路交通伤害。

Figure 1. Overall trend of disease burden of road traffic injuries in Chinese groups from 1990 to 2019

RTIs, road traffic injuries.

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表 1 2019年中国人群RTIs的疾病负担现状

Table 1. Status of disease burden of road traffic injuries in Chinese in 2019

特征 Characteristics	死亡数/万人 Number of death cases/×10⁴	死亡率/10万^-1 Death rate/100 000^-1	DALYs/万人年 DALYs/10⁴ years	DALYs率/10万^-1 DALYs rate/100 000^-1	YLDs/万人年 YLDs/10⁴ years	YLDs率/10万^-1 YLDs rate/100 000^-1	YLLs/万人年 YLLs/10⁴ years	YLLs率/10万^-1 YLLs rate/100 000^-1
性别Gender
男Male	18.65	25.72	965.65	1 332.26	177.00	244.20	788.65	1 088.06
女Female	6.36	9.11	360.12	516.28	118.88	170.43	241.24	345.85
年龄组/岁 Age groups/years
0~＜15	0.96	4.29	81.58	362.93	2.13	9.48	79.45	353.45
15~＜20	0.67	8.89	50.06	666.22	2.43	32.35	47.63	633.87
20~＜25	1.23	14.98	86.19	1 052.75	4.60	56.15	81.59	996.60
25~＜30	1.60	14.45	108.21	977.35	9.70	87.59	98.51	889.76
30~＜35	2.11	16.33	135.15	1 046.87	15.89	123.12	119.25	923.75
35~＜40	1.86	18.39	112.05	1 110.53	16.30	161.51	95.75	949.02
40~＜45	2.03	19.96	115.97	1 140.96	21.09	207.45	94.89	933.51
45~＜50	2.31	19.01	127.71	1 052.27	31.06	255.95	96.64	796.30
50~＜55	2.55	20.38	133.15	1 064.29	38.55	308.18	94.59	756.12
55~＜60	2.08	21.96	102.05	1 076.06	34.54	364.15	67.52	711.92
60~＜65	1.91	24.29	85.80	1 092.19	32.70	416.30	53.10	675.89
65~＜70	1.89	26.83	76.53	1 087.32	32.51	461.88	44.02	625.44
70~＜75	1.48	30.97	52.19	1 090.48	23.93	499.97	28.26	590.51
75~＜80	1.01	33.75	30.35	1 016.96	15.16	508.03	15.19	508.94
≥80	1.33	43.93	28.80	951.63	15.29	505.34	13.51	446.29
合计Total	25.00	17.58	1 325.77	932.10	295.88	208.02	1 029.89	724.08
注：RTIs, 道路交通伤害；DALYs：伤残调整生命年；YLDs：伤残损失寿命年；YLLs：过早死亡损失寿命年。 Note: RTIs, road traffic injuries; DALYs：disability adjusted of life year；YLDs：disability adjusted of life years；YLLs：years of life lost.

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表 2 1990―2019年中国人群RTIs的疾病负担变化情况

Table 2. Changes in the burden of disease from road traffic injuries in Chinese from 1990 to 2019

年份 Years	死亡数/万人 Number of death cases/×10⁴	死亡率/10万^-1 Death rate/100 000^-1	DALYs/万人年 DALYs/10⁴ years	DALYs率/10万^-1 DALYs rate/100 000^-1	YLDs/万人年 YLDs/10⁴ years	YLDs率/10万^-1 YLDs rate/100 000^-1	YLLs/万人年 YLLs/10⁴ years	YLLs率/10万^-1 YLLs rate/100 000^-1
1990	23.05	19.47	1 373.95	1 160.74	100.01	84.49	1 273.94	1 076.25
1991	22.69	18.93	1 351.16	1 127.35	101.63	84.80	1 249.53	1 042.55
1992	22.64	18.67	1 342.39	1 107.07	103.56	85.40	1 238.83	1 021.67
1993	22.74	18.55	1 340.00	1 093.17	105.80	86.31	1 234.20	1 006.86
1994	23.35	18.85	1 371.31	1 107.46	108.40	87.55	1 262.91	1 019.91
1995	24.08	19.26	1 408.25	1 126.58	111.24	88.99	1 297.01	1 037.60
1996	24.48	19.41	1 423.83	1 128.98	115.10	91.27	1 308.73	1 037.72
1997	24.88	19.56	1 439.48	1 131.86	120.16	94.48	1 319.32	1 037.38
1998	25.55	19.93	1 470.04	1 146.75	125.75	98.09	1 344.29	1 048.66
1999	26.45	20.48	1 507.71	1 167.41	131.28	101.65	1 376.43	1 065.76
2000	27.97	21.51	1 571.74	1 208.61	135.82	104.44	1 435.93	1 104.17
2001	29.14	22.27	1 613.98	1 233.21	139.22	106.37	1 474.77	1 126.84
2002	30.16	22.91	1 637.92	1 244.20	142.00	107.87	1 495.92	1 136.34
2003	31.30	23.65	1 668.26	1 260.50	144.80	109.40	1 523.47	1 151.09
2004	32.63	24.53	1 713.31	1 288.23	148.36	111.55	1 564.96	1 176.68
2005	32.85	24.59	1 708.57	1 278.84	153.33	114.76	1 555.24	1 164.08
2006	32.41	24.15	1 678.96	1 251.15	160.84	119.86	1 518.12	1 131.29
2007	32.42	24.05	1 675.23	1 242.92	170.50	126.50	1 504.74	1 116.42
2008	32.73	24.18	1 692.29	1 250.23	181.10	133.79	1 511.19	1 116.44
2009	32.92	24.22	1 705.13	1 254.52	191.52	140.91	1 513.62	1 113.61
2010	32.75	24.00	1 690.92	1 239.19	200.39	146.85	1 490.53	1 092.34
2011	31.58	23.06	1 622.96	1 184.82	208.68	152.35	1 414.28	1 032.47
2012	30.10	21.88	1 543.67	1 122.13	217.72	158.26	1 325.96	963.87
2013	28.89	20.91	1 488.86	1 077.40	226.98	164.25	1 261.88	913.15
2014	28.00	20.17	1 450.18	1 044.90	236.03	170.07	1 214.15	874.84
2015	26.90	19.29	1 396.50	1 001.39	244.22	175.12	1 152.29	826.27
2016	26.30	18.74	1 362.87	971.50	249.81	178.08	1 113.05	793.42
2017	25.71	18.22	1 336.58	947.38	256.76	182.00	1 079.82	765.39
2018	25.38	17.91	1 330.16	938.63	272.44	192.25	1 057.72	746.38
2019	25.00	17.58	1 325.77	932.10	295.88	208.02	1 029.89	724.08
AAPC/%		-0.47 ^①		-0.87^①		2.85 ^①		-1.47 ^①
95% CI		-0.69~-0.26		-1.15~-0.60		2.70~3.00		-1.75~-1.20
注：RTIs, 道路交通伤害; AAPC, 平均年度变化百分比; DALYs：伤残调整生命年；YLDs：伤残损失寿命年；YLLs：过早死亡损失寿命年。 ① P＜0.05。 Note: RTIs, road traffic injuries; AAPC, average annual percentage change; DALYs：disability adjusted of life year；YLDs：disability adjusted of life years；YLLs：years of life lost. ① P＜0.05.

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表 3 1990―2019年中国人群RTIs的总体疾病负担

Table 3. AAPC in the comprehensive disease burden associated with RTIs within the Chinese population between 1990 and 2019

年龄组/岁 Age groups/years	死亡率/10万^-1 Death rate/100 000^-1		DALYs率/10万^-1 DALYs rate/100 000^-1		YLDs率/10万^-1 YLDs rate/100 000^-1		YLLs率/10万^-1 YLLs rate/100 000^-1
年龄组/岁 Age groups/years	AAPC值	95% CI	AAPC值	95% CI	AAPC值	95% CI	AAPC值	95% CI
0~＜15	-3.74 ^①	-4.13~-3.34	-3.71 ^①	-4.09~-3.32	1.15 ^①	1.00~1.30	-3.77 ^①	-4.16~-3.37
15~＜20	-1.49 ^①	-1.67~-1.30	-1.41^①	-1.58~-1.24	1.08 ^①	0.87~1.28	-1.50 ^①	-1.68~-1.31
20~＜25	-0.57	-1.18~0.04	-0.51	-1.10~0.09	1.20 ^①	0.88~1.51	-0.57	-1.18 ~0.03
25~＜30	-0.69 ^①	-1.36~-0.02	-0.45	-1.08~0.18	1.22 ^①	1.04~1.39	-0.58	-1.15~0.10
30~＜35	-0.81	-1.66~0.04	-0.65	-1.46~0.17	1.10 ^①	0.93~1.26	-0.81	-1.66~0.04
35~＜40	-1.21 ^①	-1.71~-0.70	-0.96 ^①	-1.45~-0.47	1.18 ^①	0.96~1.39	-1.20 ^①	-1.71~-0.69
40~＜45	-1.16 ^①	-1.48~-0.84	-0.85 ^①	-1.13~-0.56	1.24 ^①	1.07~1.41	-1.20 ^①	-1.49~-0.90
45~＜50	-1.05 ^①	-1.73~-0.37	-0.65	-1.31~-0.02	1.36 ^①	1.05~1.68	-1.05 ^①	-1.73~-0.37
50~＜55	-0.93 ^①	-1.30~-0.56	-0.38 ^①	-0.68~-0.07	1.51 ^①	1.39~1.63	-0.93 ^①	-1.29~-0.57
55~＜60	-0.77 ^①	-1.23~-0.30	-0.17	-0.58~0.23	1.61 ^①	1.47~1.74	-0.77 ^①	-1.24~-0.30
60~＜65	-0.14	-0.53~0.26	0.44 ^①	0.19~0.70	1.74 ^①	1.58~1.90	-0.14	-0.53~0.25
65~＜70	0.04	-0.38~0.46	0.66 ^①	0.16~1.16	1.96 ^①	1.88~2.04	0.03	-0.39~0.45
70~＜75	0.12	-0.09~0.34	0.91 ^①	0.74~1.08	2.26 ^①	2.16~2.38	0.17	-0.02~0.36
75~＜80	0.08	-0.33~0.49	1.01 ^①	0.69~1.34	2.28 ^①	2.11~2.45	0.06	-0.34~0.47
≥80	0.80 ^①	0.48~1.11	1.32 ^①	1.03~1.60	2.16 ^①	1.93~2.40	0.63 ^①	0.29~0.96
注：RTIs, 道路交通伤害; AAPC, 平均年度变化百分比; DALYs：伤残调整生命年；YLDs：伤残损失寿命年；YLLs：过早死亡损失寿命年。 ① P＜0.05。 Note: RTIs, road traffic injuries; AAPC, average annual percentage change; DALYs：disability adjusted of life year；YLDs：disability adjusted of life years；YLLs：years of life lost. ① P＜0.05.

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