2013―2022年山东省65岁及以上老年人肺结核流行特征及空间聚集性

代炳芹; 张艺馨; 孙晓英; 张吉玉; 吴光健; 曹杰; 孙成玺; 马吉祥

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.02.002

2013―2022年山东省65岁及以上老年人肺结核流行特征及空间聚集性

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.02.002

1.
山东省疾病预防控制中心业务管理部，济南 250014
2.
山东省公共卫生临床中心统计科，济南 250101
3.
山东省疾病预防控制中心，济南 250014

基金项目:

山东省医药卫生科技发展计划 202012071504

山东省疾病预防控制中心青年创新基金 QC-2022-01

详细信息

通讯作者:
马吉祥，E-mail: majix@163.com

中图分类号: R181
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-07-06
- 修回日期: 2023-10-23
- 网络出版日期: 2024-03-30
- 刊出日期: 2024-02-10

Epidemiological characteristics and spatial aggregation of pulmonary tuberculosis in the elderly aged 65 and over in Shandong Province, 2013-2022

1.
Business Management Department, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China
2.
Department of Statistics, Shandong Public Health Clinical Center, Jinan 250101, China
3.
Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan 250014, China

Funds:

Shandong Provincial Medical and Health Science and Technology Development Program 202012071504

The Youth Innovation Fund of Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention QC-2022-01

More Information

Corresponding author: MA Jixiang, E-mail: majix@163.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析2013―2022年山东省65岁及以上老年人(老年人)肺结核流行特征及空间聚集性，为制定精准防控措施提供参考依据。方法通过中国疾病预防控制信息系统收集数据资料，采用描述性分析、Joinpoint回归分析及空间自相关分析方法分析老年人肺结核流行特征及空间聚集性。结果 2013―2022年山东省共报告老年人肺结核病例76 176例，年均发病率为59.09/10万，每年1―3月为发病高峰，以男性农民为主。Joinpoint回归分析显示，2013―2022年老年人肺结核报告发病率呈下降趋势，年度变化百分比为-8.92%(95% CI：-10.32%~-7.51%，P＜0.05)。全局空间自相关分析结果显示，老年人肺结核报告发病率各年度Moran′s I指数为0.135~0.481(均P＜0.05)，提示存在空间聚集性。局部空间自相关分析结果显示，“高-高”聚集区主要集中在鲁西地区的的聊城市及鲁北地区的德州市和滨州市。结论山东省2013―2022年老年人肺结核发病率呈下降趋势，以男性农民为主，鲁西、鲁北等“高-高”聚集区需重点防控。
- 肺结核 /
- 老年人 /
- 流行特征 /
- 空间自相关
Abstract: Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in the elderly aged 65 and over in Shandong Province, so as to provide a reference for the development of precise prevention and control measures. Methods Case data were obtained from the Chinese Disease Control and Prevention Information System. The epidemiological characteristics and spatial aggregation of PTB among the elderly were analyzed by descriptive analysis, Joinpoint regression analysis, and spatial autocorrelation analysis. Results A total of 76 176 elderly patients with PTB were reported in Shandong Province from 2013 to 2022.The average annual incidence was 59.09/100 000. The incidence peaked in January to March each year, and cases were predominantly among male farmers. Joinpoint regression analysis showed that the incidence of elderly PTB had an decreasing trend from 2013 to 2022, with an annual percentage changes (APC) value of -8.92%(95% CI: -10.32%--7.51%, P < 0.05). The results of global spatial autocorrelation showed that the Moran′s I index of the reported incidence of PTB in the elderly ranged from 0.135 to 0.481 (all P < 0.05), suggesting the existence of spatial clustering. Local spatial autocorrelation results showed that the "High-High" clustering areas concentrated in the west of Shandong such as Liaocheng, and the north of Shandong such as Dezhou and Binzhou. Conclusions In Shandong Province, the incidence of PTB among the elderly from 2013 to 2022 is on a downward trend, with male farmers as the main population, the "High-High" aggregation areas in the west and north of Shandong Province need to be emphasized for prevention and control.
- Pulmonary tuberculosis /
- The elderly /
- Epidemiological characteristics /
- Spatial autocorrelation

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图 1 2013―2022年山东省65岁及以上老年人肺结核不同性别年龄报告发病数及发病率

Figure 1. The reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis among the elderly aged 65 and over by gender and age in Shandong Province from 2013 to 2022

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图 2 2013―2022年山东省65岁及以上老年人肺结核报告发病数月度分布情况

Figure 2. The reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis monthly among the elderly aged 65 and over in Shandong Province from 2013 to 2022

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表 1 2013―2022年山东省全人群和65岁及以上老年人肺结核报告发病数情况

Table 1. The reported incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis in the whole population and the elderly aged 65 and over in Shandong Province from 2013 to 2022

年份 Year	全人群 Whole population		≥65岁老年人 The elderly aged 65 and over
年份 Year	报告发病数 Number of reported case	发病率/10万^-1 Incidence rate/100 000^-1	报告发病数 Number of reported case	发病率/10万^-1 Incidence rate/100 000^-1
2013	37 610	38.83	8 419	89.34
2014	35 886	36.87	8 190	82.92
2015	33 784	34.51	8 160	82.11
2016	31 644	32.14	7 875	69.91
2017	31 191	31.36	7 879	64.88
2018	29 335	29.32	7 588	54.20
2019	28 548	28.41	7 574	50.69
2020	25 470	25.29	6 804	42.85
2021	23 446	23.09	6 792	43.99
2022	21 394	21.04	6 895	43.10

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表 2 2013―2022年山东省65岁及以上老年人肺结核发病情况全局空间自相关分析

Table 2. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence among the elderly aged 65 and over in Shandong Province from 2013 to 2022

年份 Year	Moran′s I	Z值value	P值value
2013	0.135	2.909	0.001
2014	0.402	7.005	0.001
2015	0.214	4.113	0.001
2016	0.481	8.208	0.001
2017	0.405	7.164	0.001
2018	0.435	7.832	0.001
2019	0.393	7.361	0.001
2020	0.299	5.457	0.001
2021	0.266	4.793	0.001
2022	0.278	4.927	0.001

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表 3 2013―2022年山东省65岁及以上老年人肺结核发病局部空间自相关指标聚类地区

Table 3. Local indicators of spatial association cluster of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence among the elderly aged 65 and over in Shandong Province from 2013 to 2022

年份 Year	聚集区类型 Type of aggregation area
年份 Year	“高-高”聚集区 "High-High" cluster	“低-低”聚集区 "Low-Low" cluster	“低-高”聚集区 "Low-High" cluster	“高-低”聚集区 "High-Low" cluster
2013	陵城区、莘县、河东区、罗庄区、郯城县、东昌府区、阳谷县 Lingcheng District, Shen County, Hedong District, Luozhuang District, Tancheng County, Dongchangfu District, Yanggu County	广饶县、莱州市、招远市、栖霞市、海阳市、青州市、寿光市、芝罘区、牟平区、莱山区、平度市、寒亭区、福山区、即墨区、章丘区、坊子区、临淄区、李沧区、市北区、市南区、崂山区、莱芜区、潍城区、淄川区、蓬莱市 Guangrao County, Laizhou City, Zhaoyuan City, Qixia City, Haiyang City, Qingzhou City, Shouguang City, Zhifu District, Muping District, Laishan District, Pingdu City, Hanting District, Fushan District, Jimo District, Zhangqiu District, Fangzi District, Linzi District, Licang District, Shibei District, Shinan District, Laoshan District, Laiwu District, Weicheng District, Zichuan District, Penglai City	环翠区、市中区 Huancui District, Shizhong District	莱阳市 Laiyang City
2014	兰陵县、费县、东昌府区、阳谷县、莘县、茌平县、临清市、河口区、郯城县、曹县、河东区、东阿县、齐河县、东平县、平阴县、罗庄区 Lanling County, Fei County, Dongchangfu District, Yanggu County, Shen County, Chiping County, Linqing City, Hekou District, Tancheng County, Cao County, Hedong District, Dong′e County, Qihe County, Dongping County, Pingyin County, Luozhuang District	寿光市、高密市、牟平区、莱山区、寒亭区、平度市、蓬莱市、福山区、莱西市、广饶县、坊子区、淄川区、莱阳市、临淄区、市北区、莱州市、栖霞市、潍城区、海阳市、崂山区、即墨区、章丘区 Shouguang City, Gaomi City, Muping District, Laishan District, Hanting District, Pingdu City, Penglai City, Fushan District, Laixi City, Guangrao County, Fangzi District, Zichuan District, Laiyang City, Linzi District, Shibei District, Laizhou City, Qixia City, Weicheng District, Haiyang City, Laoshan District, Jimo District, Zhangqiu District	陵城区 Lingcheng District	高青县、历下区 Gaoqing County, Lixia District
2015	郯城县、桓台县、高青县、济阳区、东昌府区、阳谷县 Tancheng County, Huantai County, Gaoqing County, Jiyang District, Dongchangfu District, Yanggu County	平度市、广饶县、莱阳市、寿光市、昌邑市、蓬莱市、胶州市、福山区、高密市、芝罘区、牟平区、莱山区、寒亭区、奎文区、坊子区、潍城区、昌乐县、市北区、崂山区、即墨区 Pingdu City, Guangrao County, Laiyang City, Shouguang City, Changyi City, Penglai City, Jiaozhou City, Fushan District, Gaomi City, Zhifu District, Muping District, Laishan District, Hanting District, Kuiwen District, Fangzi District, Weicheng District, Changle County, Shibei District, Laoshan District, Jimo District	费县、莘县、周村区、河东区、市中区、平阴县、临清市、惠民县、陵城区 Fei County, Shen County, Zhoucun District, Hedong District, Shizhong District, Pingyin County, Linqing City, Huimin County, Lingcheng District	无 None
2016	郯城县、费县、阳信县、夏津县、东昌府区、阳谷县、莘县、茌平县、冠县、高唐县、临清市、陵城区、德城区、乐陵市、东平县、齐河县、罗庄区、河东区、无棣县、东阿县 Tancheng County, Fei County, Yangxin County, Xiajin County, Dongchangfu District, Yanggu County, Shen County, Chiping County, Guan County, Gaotang County, Linqing City, Lingcheng District, Decheng District, Laoling City, Dongping County, Qihe County, Luozhuang District, Hedong District, Wudi County, Dong′e County	昌邑市、乳山市、胶州市、高密市、牟平区、莱山区、平度市、莱西市、寒亭区、蓬莱市、福山区、潍城区、广饶县、坊子区、莱阳市、莱州市、招远市、市北区、即墨区、栖霞市、崂山区、海阳市、昌乐县、寿光市、淄川区 Changyi City, Rushan City, Jiaozhou City, Gaomi City, Muping District, Laishan District, Pingdu City, Laixi City, Hanting District, Penglai City, Fushan District, Weicheng District, Guangrao County, Fangzi District, Laiyang City, Laizhou City, Zhaoyuan City, Shibei District, Jimo District, Qixia City, Laoshan District, Haiyang City, Changle County, Shouguang City, Zichuan District	市中区 Shizhong District	无 None
2017	阳信县、东昌府区、阳谷县、莘县、庆云县、茌平县、德城区、乐陵市、齐河县、东平县、平阴县、东阿县、无棣县 Yangxin County, Dongchangfu District, Yanggu County, Shen County, Qingyun County, Chiping County, Decheng District, Laoling City, Qihe County, Dongping County, Pingyin County, Dong′e County, Wudi County	胶州市、牟平区、莱山区、平度市、芝罘区、莱西市、寒亭区、蓬莱市、福山区、淄川区、广饶县、坊子区、莱阳市、招远市、栖霞市、即墨区、海阳市、崂山区、寿光市、昌乐县 Jiaozhou City, Muping District, Laishan District, Pingdu City, Zhifu District, Laixi City, Hanting District, Penglai City, Fushan District, Zichuan District, Guangrao County, Fangzi District, Laiyang City, Zhaoyuan City, Qixia City, Jimo District, Haiyang City, Laoshan District, Shouguang City, Changle County	禹城市、临清市、陵城区、罗庄区 Yucheng City, Linqing City, Lingcheng District, Luozhuang District	莱芜区、高青县、临淄区 Laiwu District, Gaoqing County, Linzi District
2018	东阿县、齐河县、阳谷县、莘县、茌平县、市中区、阳信县、东昌府区、东平县、无棣县 Dong′e County, Qihe County, Yanggu County, Shen County, Chiping County, Shizhong District, Yangxin County, Dongchangfu District, Dongping County, Wudi County	青州市、寿光市、昌邑市、高密市、芝罘区、牟平区、平度市、福山区、坊子区、博兴县、潍城区、临淄区、广饶县、奎文区、莱芜区、海阳市、昌乐县、高青县 Qingzhou City、Shouguang City, Changyi City, Gaomi City, Zhifu District, Muping District, Pingdu City, Fushan District, Fangzi District, Boxing County, Weicheng District, Linzi District, Guangrao County, Kuiwen District, Laiwu District, Haiyang City, Changle County, Gaoqing County	临清市、平阴县 Linqing City, Pingyin County	淄川区、桓台县、垦利县 Zichuan District, Huantai County, Kenli County
2019	阳谷县、无棣县、莘县、茌平县、冠县、临清县、东阿县、夏津县、齐河县、东昌府区、乐陵市 Yanggu County, Wudi County, Shen County, Chiping County, Guan County, Linqing County, Dong′e County, Xiajin County, Qihe County, Dongchangfu District, Laoling City	广饶县、莱阳市、海阳市、青州市、寿光市、高密市、芝罘区、牟平区、寒亭区、福山区、淄川区、坊子区、安丘市、沂源县、李沧区、昌乐县、平度市、潍城区、即墨区 Guangrao County, Laiyang City, Haiyang City, Qingzhou City, Shouguang City, Gaomi City, Zhifu District, Muping District, Hanting District, Fushan District, Zichuan District, Fangzi District, Anqiu City, Yiyuan County, Licang District, Changle County, Pingdu City, Weicheng District, Jimo District	禹城市、阳信县、平原县、河口区、东平县 Yucheng City, Yangxin County, Pingyuan County, Hekou District, Dongping County	桓台县、市南区 Huantai County, Shinan District
2020	东昌府区、阳谷县、莘县、茌平县、冠县、齐河县、乐陵市、无棣县、东阿县 Dongchangfu District, Yanggu County, Shen County, Chiping County, Guan County, Qihe County, Laoling City, Wudi County, Dong′e County	广饶县、青州市、寿光市、芝罘区、牟平区、寒亭区、张店区、临淄区、周村区、岱岳区、昌乐县、章丘区、高青县、淄川区 Guangrao County, Qingzhou City, Shouguang City, Zhifu District, Muping District, Hanting District, Zhangdian District, Linzi District, Zhoucun District, Daiyue District, Changle County, Zhangqiu District, Gaoqing County, Zichuan District	禹城市、临清市、阳信县、东平县 Yucheng City, Linqing City, Yangxin County, Dongping County	桓台县、坊子区、沂源县 Huantai County, Fangzi District, Yiyuan County
2021	东昌府区、莘县、临清市、平原县、乐陵市、无棣县 Dongchangfu District, Shen County, Linqing City, Pingyuan County, Laoling City, Wudi County	桓台县、广饶县、青州市、寿光市、邹平市、寒亭区、张店区、沂源县、坊子区、博山区、淄川区、章丘区、临淄区、莱芜区、昌乐县、临朐县、高青县、周村区、博兴县 Huantai County, Guangrao County, Qingzhou City, Shouguang City, Zouping City, Hanting District, Zhandian District, Yiyuan County, Fangzi District, Boshan District, Zichuan District, Zhangqiu District, Linzi District, Laiwu District, Changle County, Linqu County, Gaoqing County, Zhoucun District, Boxing County	阳信县 Yangxin County	无 None
2022	东昌府区、阳谷县、莘县、茌平县、冠县、阳信县、乐陵市、东阿县 Dongchangfu District, Yanggu County, Shen County, Chiping County, Guan County, Yangxin County, Laoling City, Dong′e County	桓台县、广饶县、青州市、寿光市、高密市、寒亭区、坊子区、昌乐县、莱芜区、潍城区、周村区、临淄区、高青县 Huantai County, Guangrao County, Qingzhou City, Shouguang City, Gaomi City, Hanting District, Fangzi District, Changle County, Laiwu District, Weicheng District, Zhoucun District, Linzi District, Gaoqing County	临清市、无棣县、齐河县、东平县 Linqing City, Wudi County, Qihe County, Dongping County	淄川区 Zichuan District

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