1990―2019年中国慢性肾病发病趋势及预测

孙科; 倪帅虎; 郑卿勇; 罗小峰

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.03.003

1990―2019年中国慢性肾病发病趋势及预测

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.03.003

1.
兰州大学公共卫生学院社会医学与卫生事业管理学研究所，兰州 730000
2.
兰州大学护理学院循证护理中心，兰州 730000

孙科和倪帅虎为共同第一作者

基金项目:

兰州大学医学教育创新发展项目 lzuyxcx-2022-23

兰州大学医学教育创新发展项目 lzuyxcx-2022-220

详细信息

通讯作者:
罗小峰，E-mail: luoxiaof@lzu.edu.cn

中图分类号: R692;R81
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2023-08-24
- 修回日期: 2024-01-10
- 网络出版日期: 2024-04-08
- 刊出日期: 2024-03-10

Study on the trend and forecast of the incidence of chronic kidney disease in China from 1990 to 2019

1.
Institute of Social Medicine and Health Management, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
2.
School of Nursing, Evidence-Based Nursing Center, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

SUN Ke and NI Shuaihu contributed equally to this article

Funds:

Medical Innovation and Development Project of Lanzhou University lzuyxcx-2022-23

Medical Innovation and Development Project of Lanzhou University lzuyxcx-2022-220

More Information

Corresponding author: LUO Xiaofeng, E-mail: luoxiaof@lzu.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 目的了解各地区人口死因现状，研究各疾病死因的变化趋势，为卫生资源合理利用提供可靠依据。方法对比2010、2015、2020年东、中、西部地区死因顺位，编制全死因寿命表以及去死因寿命表。计算死亡率、年龄标化死亡率和减寿率等指标，并采用第七次全国人口普查数据进行标化。结果各地区死亡率呈上升趋势，西部地区年龄标化死亡率最高，各地区期望寿命年均增长0.32、0.34和0.31岁。恶性肿瘤、脑血管病、心脏病、呼吸系统疾病和伤害是各地区死因前5位。恶性肿瘤是东部地区死因首位，而脑血管病是中部地区的死因首位。心脏病寿命损失率在各地区都呈上升趋势，2020年中部地区≥85岁年龄组心脏病寿命损失率已达49.50%；呼吸系统导致的寿命损失率逐年降低，但随年龄的增长呈上升趋势，且对西部地区的寿命影响最大；伤害导致的寿命损失率在≥75岁年龄组呈上升趋势。结论各地区人口期望寿命逐步增加，但心血管病导致的寿命损失率在持续升高，且伤害对老年人群的寿命影响也在不断增加。不同疾病对不同地区寿命影响程度存在差异，应根据不同年龄、地区的老年人制定有针对性地疾病防治策略。
- 慢性肾病 /
- 发病率 /
- 年龄-时期-队列模型 /
- 贝叶斯-时期-队列分析 /
- 预测
Abstract: Objective To explore the current status of population mortality in different regions and study the changing trends of various causes of death, providing reliable evidence for the rational utilization of health resources. Methods Compared the rank order of death causes in the eastern, central, and western regions in 2010, 2015, and 2020, compiled life expectancy tables and cause-eliminated life expectancy tables. Calculated mortality rate, standardized mortality rate, years of potential life lost rate and the seventh national population census data were used for standardization. Results The mortality rate in all regions showed a decreasing trend, and the standardized rate of mortality of western was the highest. The average annual increase in life expectancy was 0.32, 0.34 and 0.31 years. Cancer, cerebrovascular disease, heart disease, respiratory disease and injury were the top five causes of death in each region. Cancer was the leading cause of death in the eastern region, while the cerebrovascular disease is the leading cause in the central region. The rate of life lost due to heart disease showed an increasing trend in all regions, with the central region recording a heart disease of 49.50% in the age group above 85 in 2020. The rate of life lost due to respiratory system decreased annually, but showed an increasing trend with age and had the greatest impact on the lifespan in the western regions. The rate of life lost due to injuries showed an increasing trend in the age group above 75 years. Conclusions Life expectancy increased gradually in all regions, but the rate of life lost due to cardiovascular diseases continued to rise, and injuries also had an increasing impact on the lifespan of the elderly. Different diseases had varying impacts on the lifespan in different regions, and disease prevention and control strategies should be tailored to different ages and regions.
- Chronic kidney disease /
- Incidence /
- Age-period-cohort model /
- Bayesian-period-cohort analysis /
- Prediction

HTML全文

图 1 1990―2019年中国不同性别慢性肾病粗发病率(A)、标化发病率(B)和发病人数(C)

Figure 1. Crude incidence rate (A), standardized incidence rate (B) and incidence number (C) of chronic kidney disease in China from 1990 to 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 1990―2019年中国慢性肾病发病率年龄-时期-队列模型分析: 纵向年龄曲线(A)、局部漂移和全局漂移(B)、时期相对风险(C)、队列相对风险(D)

Figure 2. Analysis of the age-period-cohort model of chronic kidney disease incidence in China from 1990 to 2019: longitudinal age curve (A), local drift and global drift (B), relative risk of period (C) and relative risk of cohort (D)

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2020―2034年中国慢性肾病男性发病率预测(A)、女性发病率预测(B)、发病人数预测(C)

BAPC: 贝叶斯-时期-队列分析。

Figure 3. Prediction of male incidence (A), female incidence (B) and incidence number (C) of chronic kidney disease in China from 2020 to 2034

BAPC: Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 1990―2019年中国慢性肾病发病率年龄-时期-队列模型检验

Table 1. Age-period-cohort model test of incidence of chronic kidney disease in China from 1990 to 2019

零假设Null hypothesis	全人群Population		男性Male		女性Female
零假设Null hypothesis	χ²值 value	P值 value	χ²值 value	P值 value	χ²值 value	P值 value
全局变化Net drift=0	389.72	< 0.001	444.96	< 0.001	267.38	< 0.001
总年龄偏差All age deviations=0	69 161.84	< 0.001	99 741.01	< 0.001	44 963.84	< 0.001
总时期偏差All period deviations=0	365.64	< 0.001	440.41	< 0.001	272.43	< 0.001
总队列偏差All cohort deviations=0	588.17	< 0.001	621.60	< 0.001	505.92	< 0.001
全时期RR值All period RR value=1	818.31	< 0.001	940.34	< 0.001	589.10	< 0.001
全队列RR值All period RR value=1	1 907.42	< 0.001	1 981.50	< 0.001	1 575.45	< 0.001
所有局部变化=全局变化All local drifts=Net drift	586.50	< 0.001	618.81	< 0.001	504.64	< 0.001

下载: 导出CSV

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