2011―2023年陕西省急性出血性结膜炎流行特征及空间聚集性分析

张路钱; 李欣欣; 张梦妍; 王舒; 年云鹏; 宁少奇

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.10.011

2011―2023年陕西省急性出血性结膜炎流行特征及空间聚集性分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.10.011

陕西省疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所，西安 710000

基金项目:

陕西省卫生应急作业平台建设项目 2020PT-030

详细信息

通讯作者:
宁少奇，E-mail：451355256@qq.com

中图分类号: R183.4
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2024-06-06
- 修回日期: 2024-08-14
- 网络出版日期: 2024-12-11
- 刊出日期: 2024-10-10

Epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering analysis of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Shaanxi Province from 2011 to 2023

Institute for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Shaanxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Xi′an 710000, China

Funds:

Shaanxi Province Health Emergency Operations Center Project 2020PT-030

More Information

Corresponding author: NING Shaoqi, E-mail: 451355256@qq.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析2011―2023年陕西省急性出血性结膜炎(acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis, AHC)的变化趋势和流行特征，为制定AHC的预防和控制策略提供依据。方法收集2011―2023年陕西省AHC病例信息，使用Excel 2007和SPSS 18.0软件进行数据整理与统计分析，使用Joinpoint 4.9.1.0软件进行回归分析，使用Geoda 1.6软件进行空间聚集性分析，使用SuperMap软件进行地图绘制。结果 2011―2023年陕西省共报告AHC病例14 273例，年均发病率为2.89/10万，发病率整体呈下降趋势(AAPC=-12.6%, t=-5.40, P < 0.01)，病例主要集中在汉中市(41.84%)和咸阳市(19.14%)；全省各县(区)均有病例报告，其中发病率较高的5个县(区)为汉台区、宁陕县、勉县、南郑区和略阳县。男女性别比为1.11∶1.00，职业以农民为主，35~ < 70岁年龄组的发病数较多，且夏秋季为高发期。全局空间自相关分析显示，2011―2018年、2020―2023年均存在显著的空间自相关(P < 0.01)；局部空间自相关分析共探测到78个“高-高”聚集区域，这些区域主要集中在陕西省南部。结论 2011―2023年陕西省AHC发病率整体呈下降趋势，呈现明显的地区聚集性，需在AHC流行季节针对重点地区、重点人群做好宣传与监测工作，防止聚集性疫情的发生。
- 急性出血性结膜炎 /
- 流行特征 /
- Joinpoint回归分析 /
- 空间聚集性分析
Abstract: Objective To investigate the trends and epidemiological characteristics of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) in Shaanxi province from 2011 to 2023, with the goal of informing and developing targeted prevention and control strategies. Methods Data on AHC cases reported in Shaanxi Province from 2011 to 2023 were collected and processed for statistical analysis using Excel 2007 and SPSS 18.0. Regression analysis was conducted using Joinpoint 4.9.1.0, spatial clustering analysis with Geoda 1.6, and map visualization with SuperMap. Results A total of 14 273 AHC cases were reported in Shaanxi Province from 2011 to 2023, with an average annual incidence of 2.89/100 000. The overall incidence showed a significant declining trend (AAPC=-12.6%, t=-5.40, P < 0.01), with cases predominantly concentrated in Hanzhong Prefecture (41.84%) and Xianyang Prefecture (19.14%). Cases were reported across all counties and districts, with the highest incidences observed in 5 districts or countries, including Hantai District, Ningshan County, Mian County, Nanzheng District and Lueyang County. Farmers made up the majority of the occupational group, with a male-to-female ratio of 1.11 to 1.00. The highest incidence was found in the 35 to 70 years age group, with a peak during the summer and autumn seasons. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed a significant spatial clustering between 2011-2018 and 2020-2023 (P < 0.01). Local spatial autocorrelation analysis identified a total of 78 "high-high" clusters, predominantly located in southern Shaanxi Province. Conclusions In Shaanxi Province, the incidence of AHC showed a notable decline from 2011 to 2021, with distinct regional clustering patterns. To prevent clustered outbreaks during AHC epidemic seasons, it is crucial to focus public education and surveillance efforts on specific population groups and key areas.
- Acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis /
- Epidemic characteristics /
- Joinpoint regression analysis /
- Spatial clustering analysis

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图 1 2011―2023年陕西省急性出血性结膜炎Joinpoint回归分析

Figure 1. Joinpoint regression analysis of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Shaanxi Province from 2011 to 2023

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图 2 2011―2023年陕西省各县(区)急性出血性结膜炎发病率

Figure 2. Incidence of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in counties and districts of Shaanxi Province from 2011 to 2023

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图 3 2011―2018年、2020―2023年度陕西省急性出血性结膜炎局部空间自相关分析

Figure 3. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Shaanxi Province from 2011 to 2018 and 2020 to 2023

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 2011―2023年陕西省急性出血性结膜炎全局空间自相关分析

Table 1. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis in Shaanxi Province from 2011 to 2023

年份 Year	Moran′s I	预期指数 Expectation index	方差 Variance	Z值 value	P值 value	结果 Results
2011	0.364	-0.009 2	0.003 5	6.433	0.001	聚集Clustered
2012	0.324	-0.009 2	0.003 4	5.768	0.001	聚集Clustered
2013	0.199	-0.009 2	0.002 5	4.074	0.003	聚集Clustered
2014	0.359	-0.009 2	0.003 8	6.110	0.001	聚集Clustered
2015	0.288	-0.009 2	0.003 4	5.173	0.001	聚集Clustered
2016	0.263	-0.009 2	0.003 0	4.885	0.002	聚集Clustered
2017	0.280	-0.009 2	0.003 1	5.303	0.002	聚集Clustered
2018	0.283	-0.009 2	0.003 4	5.169	0.002	聚集Clustered
2019	0.061	-0.009 2	0.001 7	1.753	0.061	随机Random
2020	0.393	-0.009 2	0.003 5	6.951	0.001	聚集Clustered
2021	0.198	-0.009 2	0.002 9	3.868	0.009	聚集Clustered
2022	0.100	-0.009 2	0.002 4	2.404	0.034	聚集Clustered
2023	0.181	-0.009 2	0.002 6	3.787	0.007	聚集Clustered

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表 2 2011―2018年、2020―2023年度陕西省急性出血性结膜炎发病“高-高”聚集区域

Table 2. 2011-2018 and 2020-2023 acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis incidence "high-high" clusters in Shaanxi Province

年份 Year	“高-高”聚集个数 "High-high" aggregate number	“高-高”聚集区域 "High-high" clusters
2011	14	太白县、洋县、西乡县、勉县、镇巴县、佛坪县、汉滨区、汉阴县、宁陕县、岚皋县、紫阳县、略阳县、宁强县、汉台区 Taibai County, Yang County, Xixiang County, Mian County, Zhenba County, Foping County, Hanbin District, Hanyin County, Ningshan County, Langao County, Ziyang County, Lueyang County, Ningqiang County and Hantai District
2012	11	太白县、洋县、西乡县、勉县、镇巴县、佛坪县、汉滨区、汉阴县、石泉县、岚皋县、宁强县 Taibai County, Yang County, Xixiang County, Mian County, Zhenba County, Foping County, Hanbin District, Hanyin County, Shiquan County, Langao County and Ningqiang County
2013	8	太白县、洋县、勉县、佛坪县、宁陕县、宁强县、汉台区、周至县 Taibai County, Yang County, Mian County, Foping County, Ningshan County, Ningqiang County, Hantai District and Zhouzhi County
2014	5	南郑区、勉县、略阳县、宁强县、汉台区 Nanzheng District, Mian County, Lueyang County, Ningqiang County and Hantai District
2015	4	南郑区、勉县、宁强县、汉台区 Nanzheng District, Mian County, Ningqiang County and Hantai District
2016	6	南郑区、勉县、略阳县、宁强县、留坝县、汉台区 Nanzheng District, Mian County, Lueyang County, Ningqiang County, Liuba County and Hantai District
2017	5	南郑区、勉县、宁强县、留坝县、汉台区 Nanzheng District, Mian County, Ningqiang County, Liuba County and Hantai District
2018	5	南郑区、勉县、略阳县、宁强县、汉台区 Nanzheng District, Mian County, Lueyang County, Ningqiang County and Hantai District
2020	5	南郑区、勉县、略阳县、宁强县、汉台区 Nanzheng District, Mian County, Lueyang County, Ningqiang County and Hantai District
2021	6	南郑区、勉县、镇安县、略阳县、汉台区、周至县 Nanzheng District, Mian County, Zhenan County, Lueyang County, Hantai District and Zhouzhi County
2022	5	南郑区、略阳县、宁强县、汉台区、周至县 Nanzheng District, Lueyang County, Ningqiang County, Hantai District and Zhouzhi County
2023	4	南郑区、勉县、略阳县、汉台区 Nanzheng District, Mian County, Lueyang County and Hantai District

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