Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of varicella in Fujian Province from 2014 to 2018

QI Xiao-qi; ZHU Han-song; CHEN Wu; CAI Shao-jian; XIE Zhong-hang; WU Sheng-gen; OU Jian-ming

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.01.009

Volume 25 Issue 1

Jan. 2021

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QI Xiao-qi, ZHU Han-song, CHEN Wu, CAI Shao-jian, XIE Zhong-hang, WU Sheng-gen, OU Jian-ming. Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of varicella in Fujian Province from 2014 to 2018[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(1): 43-47, 112. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.01.009

Citation:

QI Xiao-qi, ZHU Han-song, CHEN Wu, CAI Shao-jian, XIE Zhong-hang, WU Sheng-gen, OU Jian-ming. Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of varicella in Fujian Province from 2014 to 2018[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(1): 43-47, 112. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.01.009

Citation:

QI Xiao-qi, ZHU Han-song, CHEN Wu, CAI Shao-jian, XIE Zhong-hang, WU Sheng-gen, OU Jian-ming. Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of varicella in Fujian Province from 2014 to 2018[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(1): 43-47, 112. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.01.009

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Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of varicella in Fujian Province from 2014 to 2018

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.01.009

1.
Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research/ Department of Communicable Disease Surveillance and Emergency Response, Fujian Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou 350001, China
2.
Department of Communicable Disease Emergency Response, Professional Teaching Practice Base for School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350001, China

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Corresponding author: QI Xiao-qi, E-mail: 490447856@qq.com
Received Date: 2019-12-13
Rev Recd Date: 2020-05-06
Publish Date: 2021-01-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To analyse the epidemiological characteristics and to predict the cases of varicella in Fujian Province in 2014-2018. This would provide a scientific evidence for varicella prevention and control strategies. Methods Varicella case data was collected from China Infectious Disease Report Information Management System. Varicella emergency report data was collected from Public Health Emergency Management Information System. ArcGIS 10.2 and R 3.4.3 software were used to perform statistical description and analysis. Results A total of 58 934 cases of varicella were reported in Fujian Province from 2014 to 2018. The average annual incidence was 30.65/100 000, with a rising trend from 2014 to 2018(F=20.055, P=0.021); The incidence of varicella was significantly seasonal with a bimodal distribution. The incidence peak was from May to June and from November to January in the following year. The majority of the patients were children under 15 years old, accounting for 66.28% of the total cases. The average annual incidence of varicella in males (32.68/100 000) was higher than that in females (28.57/100 000)(χ²=52.895, P < 0.001); The main occupation of patients were students, accounting for 45.75%. 183 public health emergencies of varicella involving 208 809 people were reported during the same period. The average attack rate was 2.08% and mainly occurred in primary schools, accounting for 71.04%. According to the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the number of varicella cases in November and December in 2019 were predicted to be 3 834 and 5 369, respectively, both of them exceeded the number of cases in the same month in 2018. Conclusions The varicella epidemic situation is on the rise in Fujian Province. Therefore, the prevention and control strategies should be strengthened, especially for the key groups (children under 15 years old) and in the key institutions (primary schools) during the peak incidence seasons.
- Varicella,
- Epidemiological characteristics,
- Outbreak,
- Prediction

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References(15)

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