Dynamic response analysis of economic development and infant mortality rate in China from 1991 to 2018

FAN Qiao-rong; ZHOU Peng-fen; TONG Si; ZHANG Yan; WANG Yan; HUANG Juan; HUANG Nan; LI Chen-lu; YANG Xiao-long; LIU Jian-zheng

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.02.015

Volume 25 Issue 2

Feb. 2021

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Article Navigation > CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION > 2021 > 25(2): 198-203

FAN Qiao-rong, ZHOU Peng-fen, TONG Si, ZHANG Yan, WANG Yan, HUANG Juan, HUANG Nan, LI Chen-lu, YANG Xiao-long, LIU Jian-zheng. Dynamic response analysis of economic development and infant mortality rate in China from 1991 to 2018[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(2): 198-203. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.02.015

Citation:

FAN Qiao-rong, ZHOU Peng-fen, TONG Si, ZHANG Yan, WANG Yan, HUANG Juan, HUANG Nan, LI Chen-lu, YANG Xiao-long, LIU Jian-zheng. Dynamic response analysis of economic development and infant mortality rate in China from 1991 to 2018[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(2): 198-203. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.02.015

Citation:

FAN Qiao-rong, ZHOU Peng-fen, TONG Si, ZHANG Yan, WANG Yan, HUANG Juan, HUANG Nan, LI Chen-lu, YANG Xiao-long, LIU Jian-zheng. Dynamic response analysis of economic development and infant mortality rate in China from 1991 to 2018[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(2): 198-203. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.02.015

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Dynamic response analysis of economic development and infant mortality rate in China from 1991 to 2018

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.02.015

1.
Baoji Maternal and Child Health Hospital, Baoji 721000, China
2.
The First Affiliated Hospital of PLA Air Force Military Medical University, Xi'an 710000, China

More Information

Corresponding author: LIU Jian-zheng, E-mail:liujzh2016@163.com
Received Date: 2020-03-10
Rev Recd Date: 2020-09-14
Publish Date: 2021-02-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To explore the interactional relationship between economic development and infant mortality in China, and to predict the changing trend of infant mortality in China. Methods Based on gross domestic product (GDP), total expenditure on health (TEH) and infant mortality rate (IMR) data of China from 1991 to 2018, a vector autoregressive model was constructed to predict the infant mortality level of China in 2030. Results The results of VAR (4) model showed that R²=0.86, AIC=-20.37 and SBC=-18.44. The Granger cause of IMR decrease and TEH increase was GDP (χ²=20.97, P < 0.001). The Granger causes of TEH increase were IMR and GDP (χ²=18.07, P < 0.001). The impact of innovations in GDP and TEH had a positive medium-to-long-term response to infant health, and the contribution to IMR changes at 12 periods were 11.04% and 69.49 %, respectively. GDP was positively affected by the impact of IMR and TEH innovation. It was expected that IMR of China would drop to 2.13 ‰ (95% CI: 0.93 ‰-4.90‰) by 2030. Conclusions The increase of economic development and health investment has effectively reduced infant mortality in China. accordingly, the decline in infant mortality and increase in health investment have also promoted the economic development of China.
- Infant mortality rate,
- Gross domestic product,
- Total expenditure on health,
- Vector autoregression,
- Dynamic response

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References(16)

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