A study on the thresholds of temperature for early warning in different temperature zones of China based on the temperature-mortality relationships

WU Jun-le; YU Min; ZHOU Mai-geng; ZHOU Chun-liang; XIAO Yi-ze; HUANG Biao; XU Yan-jun; MENG Rui-lin; ZHAO Liang; HU Jian-xiong; HE Guan-hao; XU Xiao-jun; LIU Tao; XIAO Jian-peng; ZENG Wei-lin; GUO Ling-chuan; LI Xing; MA Wen-jun

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.10.005

Volume 25 Issue 10

Nov. 2021

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Article Navigation > CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION > 2021 > 25(10): 1139-1146

WU Jun-le, YU Min, ZHOU Mai-geng, ZHOU Chun-liang, XIAO Yi-ze, HUANG Biao, XU Yan-jun, MENG Rui-lin, ZHAO Liang, HU Jian-xiong, HE Guan-hao, XU Xiao-jun, LIU Tao, XIAO Jian-peng, ZENG Wei-lin, GUO Ling-chuan, LI Xing, MA Wen-jun. A study on the thresholds of temperature for early warning in different temperature zones of China based on the temperature-mortality relationships[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(10): 1139-1146. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.10.005

Citation:

WU Jun-le, YU Min, ZHOU Mai-geng, ZHOU Chun-liang, XIAO Yi-ze, HUANG Biao, XU Yan-jun, MENG Rui-lin, ZHAO Liang, HU Jian-xiong, HE Guan-hao, XU Xiao-jun, LIU Tao, XIAO Jian-peng, ZENG Wei-lin, GUO Ling-chuan, LI Xing, MA Wen-jun. A study on the thresholds of temperature for early warning in different temperature zones of China based on the temperature-mortality relationships[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(10): 1139-1146. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.10.005

Citation:

WU Jun-le, YU Min, ZHOU Mai-geng, ZHOU Chun-liang, XIAO Yi-ze, HUANG Biao, XU Yan-jun, MENG Rui-lin, ZHAO Liang, HU Jian-xiong, HE Guan-hao, XU Xiao-jun, LIU Tao, XIAO Jian-peng, ZENG Wei-lin, GUO Ling-chuan, LI Xing, MA Wen-jun. A study on the thresholds of temperature for early warning in different temperature zones of China based on the temperature-mortality relationships[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2021, 25(10): 1139-1146. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.10.005

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A study on the thresholds of temperature for early warning in different temperature zones of China based on the temperature-mortality relationships

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.10.005

1.
School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou 510515, China
2.
Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
3.
Zhejiang Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou 310051, China
4.
The National Center for Chronic and Noncommunicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100050, China
5.
Hunan Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha 410005, China
6.
Yunnan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Kunming 650022, China
7.
Jilin Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changchun 130062, China
8.
Institute for the Prevention and Control of Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou 511430, China
9.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Beijing 100029, China

Funds:

The National Key Research and Development Program of China 2018YFA0606200

National Natural Science Foundation of China 42075173

Guangdong Medical Science and Technology Research A2021340

More Information

Corresponding author: MA Wen-jun, E-mail: mawj@gdiph.org.cn
Received Date: 2021-04-09
Rev Recd Date: 2021-07-21

Available Online: 2021-11-17

Publish Date: 2021-10-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To estimate the thresholds of temperature for health early warning in different temperature zones in China, our study aims to provide support for developing health early warning system of temperature. Methods Daily mortality and meteorological data were collected from 364 Chinese locations during 2006-2017. Distribution lag non-linear model (DLNM) and multivariate Meta analyses were applied to estimate the association between temperature and mortality, and identified the thresholds of temperature. Results Mean of daily temperature was 16.0 ℃. Mean of daily relative humidity was 73.0%. Mean of daily non-accidental mortality was 8.3 cases. The relationships of daily average temperature with mortality in different climate zones were inverted "J" type. For cold effect, the temperature ranges of low risk in the temperate zone, warm temperate or north subtropics, middle subtropics and south subtropics were 9.1-13.8 ℃, 0.1-19.3 ℃, 8.8-24.3 ℃ and 9.9-25.3 ℃, respectively; and they were 1.8-9.1 ℃, -6.1-0.1 ℃, 1.5-8.8 ℃ and 4.8-9.9 ℃ for medium risks of cold temperature, respectively; and they were < 1.8 ℃, < -6.1 ℃, < 1.5 ℃ and < 4.8 ℃ for high risk of cold temperature, respectively. For heat effect, the temperature ranges of low risk were 23.4-24.8 ℃, 28.6-29.3 ℃, 27.2-29.5 ℃ and 28.2-28.6 ℃, respectively; and they were 24.8-26.1 ℃, 29.3-30.1 ℃, 29.5-31.0 ℃ and 28.6-29.0 ℃ for medium risk of hot temperature, respectively; and they were > 26.1 ℃, > 30.1 ℃, > 31.0℃ and > 29.0 ℃ for high risk of hot temperature, respectively. For heat effect in all climate zones, the average daily mortality increased with the increase of risk grade, For cold effect, the average daily mortality increased with the increase of risk grade in other three climate zones, except in warm temperate zone and northern subtropical zone. Conclusion Based on the temperature-mortality relationship, we identified the thresholds of temperature for health early warning, and the effectiveness of the early warning based on the thresholds is well.
- Mortality,
- Temperature,
- Threshold of health early warning,
- Distributed lag nonlinear model

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References(31)

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