Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis of mortality trends of cardiovascular disease attributable to kidney dysfunction in China

ZHANG Yue; ZHANG Yingying; DING Ling; WU Jinyi; LEI Lijian

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.07.004

Volume 28 Issue 7

Jul. 2024

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ZHANG Yue, ZHANG Yingying, DING Ling, WU Jinyi, LEI Lijian. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis of mortality trends of cardiovascular disease attributable to kidney dysfunction in China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(7): 764-769. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.07.004

Citation:

ZHANG Yue, ZHANG Yingying, DING Ling, WU Jinyi, LEI Lijian. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis of mortality trends of cardiovascular disease attributable to kidney dysfunction in China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(7): 764-769. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.07.004

Citation:

ZHANG Yue, ZHANG Yingying, DING Ling, WU Jinyi, LEI Lijian. Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis of mortality trends of cardiovascular disease attributable to kidney dysfunction in China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(7): 764-769. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.07.004

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Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort analysis of mortality trends of cardiovascular disease attributable to kidney dysfunction in China

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.07.004

ZHANG Yue^{1, 2},
ZHANG Yingying^{1, 2},
DING Ling^{1, 2},
WU Jinyi³,
LEI Lijian^{1, 2
,
,}

1.
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan 030001, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Coal Environmental Pathogenicity and Prevention, Ministry Education, Taiyuan 030001, China
3.
Department of Public Health, Wuhan Fourth Hospital, Wuhan 430030, China

Funds:

Youth Scientific Research Project of Fundamental Research Program in Shanxi Province 202103021223216

Youth Scientific Research Project of Fundamental Research Program in Shanxi Province 20210302124038

National Natural Science Youth Foundation Project 82103938

More Information

Corresponding author: LEI Lijian，E-mail: wwdlijian@sxmu.edu.cn
Received Date: 2023-10-10
Rev Recd Date: 2024-03-26

Available Online: 2024-08-19

Publish Date: 2024-07-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To analyze the long-term trends and effects of age, period and cohort on cardiovascular disease mortality attributed to kidney dysfunction (KI-CVD) in China from 1990 to 2019. Methods Data on the absolute number, crude death rate (CDR) and age-standardized mortality (ASDR) for KI-CVD in China were collected from global burden of disease study 2019. The annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC) were calculated to analyze the trends of CDR and ASDR by Joinpoint regression model. The age, period and cohort effects were estimated using an age-period-cohort model. Results The CDR of KI-CVD was generally increasing, from 12.65 per 100 000 in 1990 to 26.49 per 100 000 in 2019 (AAPC=3.35%, 95% CI: 3.06%-3.64%). ASDR showed a slight increase (AAPC=0.70%, 95% CI: 0.39%-1.00%). APC model analysis showed that from 1990 to 2019, age effect exhibited an upward trend with the increase of age. Period effect decreased first, then increased to steady and then decreased over time. Taking 2000-2004 as the reference group, the rate ratio of death was higher in 1990-1994, and lower in 2015-2019. Cohort effect showed an inverted "U" shape, with an upward trend in 1911-1939 cohort, peaking in 1931-1939 (RR=1.100, 95% CI: 1.046-1.158), then decreasing with the year of birth. Conclusions The CDR of KI-CVD in China is generally on the rise from 1990 to 2019 and the risk of death is affected by age, period and cohort effect.
- Kidney dysfunction,
- Cardiovascular disease,
- Mortality,
- Joinpoint regression model,
- Age-period-cohort model

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References(22)

References

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