Survival analysis of MSM with HIV/AIDS in China from 2010 to 2021

GUAN Mingyue; JIN Yichen; CAI Chang; CHEN Fangfang; QIN Qianqian; TANG Houlin

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.07.014

Volume 28 Issue 7

Jul. 2024

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GUAN Mingyue, JIN Yichen, CAI Chang, CHEN Fangfang, QIN Qianqian, TANG Houlin. Survival analysis of MSM with HIV/AIDS in China from 2010 to 2021[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(7): 833-838. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.07.014

Citation:

GUAN Mingyue, JIN Yichen, CAI Chang, CHEN Fangfang, QIN Qianqian, TANG Houlin. Survival analysis of MSM with HIV/AIDS in China from 2010 to 2021[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(7): 833-838. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.07.014

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Survival analysis of MSM with HIV/AIDS in China from 2010 to 2021

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.07.014

National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases/Division of Epidemiology, National Center for AIDS/STD Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 102206, China

Funds:

National Key Research and Development Program of China 2022YFC2305201

National Natural Science Foundation of China 71874168

More Information

Corresponding author: QIN Qianqian, E-mail: qinqq@chinaaids.cn; TANG Houlin, E-mail: tanghl@chinaaids.cn
Received Date: 2023-11-03
Rev Recd Date: 2024-04-17

Available Online: 2024-08-19

Publish Date: 2024-07-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To understand the survival and influencing factors of MSM (men who have sex with men) with HIV/AIDS in China from 2010 to 2021, in order to provide reference for effective AIDS prevention and control in the MSM population. Methods The data were obtained from the China disease control and prevention information system. Retrospective cohort study was used to calculate the mortality density of the patients. Cumulative survival of patients was analyzed, and Cox proportion hazards regression model was performed to assess the risk factors for patient deaths. Results Between 2010 and 2021, 309 964 MSM with HIV/AIDS were reported with 20 371 deaths, and the all-cause mortality density was 1.47 per 100 person-years. The mean survival time of the patients was 10.21 (95% CI: 10.204-10.225) years, and the cumulative survival rates in 1, 5, and 10 years were 96.56 %, 93.06 %, and 88.73 %. The results of multivariate Cox proportional risk regression model showed that patients with confirmed age≥60 years were 4.022 (95% CI: 3.792-4.266) times the risk of death of patients aged 15- < 30 years. Compared with patients with first CD4⁺T-lymphocytes >500 copies/μL, the risk of death for patients with first CD4⁺T-lymphocytes undetected and first CD4⁺T-lymphocytes < 200 copies/μL was 7.072(95% CI: 6.696-7.470) times and 3.842(95% CI: 3.657-4.036) times respectively. Patients who did not receive ART had a 14.400(95% CI: 13.881-14.939) times greater risk of death than those who did receive ART. Conclusions Older age at confirmation, first CD4⁺T-lymphocytes undetected or first CD4⁺T-lymphocytes < 200 copies/μL, and not receiving ART are the main risk factors for death of MSM with HIV/AIDS in China, and early detection, diagnosis, and treatment of MSM need to be strengthened. At the same time, focus needs to be placed on the detection and treatment of elderly MSM, to further reduce the risk of death of MSM with HIV/AIDS.
- HIV/AIDS,
- Men who have sex with men,
- Survival analysis,
- Related factors

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References(20)

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