Screening and quantitative assessment of drought-sensitive intestinal infectious diseases in Changsha from 2016 to 2020

WANG Xuanshu; ZHOU Huilin; LI Min; KUANG Wentao; LUO Piaoyi; ZHAO Wan; WU Qiping; HONG Huilin; ZHAO Jin; ZHA Wenting; YANG Xuewen

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.07.018

Volume 28 Issue 7

Jul. 2024

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Article Navigation > CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION > 2024 > 28(7): 864-868

WANG Xuanshu, ZHOU Huilin, LI Min, KUANG Wentao, LUO Piaoyi, ZHAO Wan, WU Qiping, HONG Huilin, ZHAO Jin, ZHA Wenting, YANG Xuewen. Screening and quantitative assessment of drought-sensitive intestinal infectious diseases in Changsha from 2016 to 2020[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(7): 864-868. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.07.018

Citation:

WANG Xuanshu, ZHOU Huilin, LI Min, KUANG Wentao, LUO Piaoyi, ZHAO Wan, WU Qiping, HONG Huilin, ZHAO Jin, ZHA Wenting, YANG Xuewen. Screening and quantitative assessment of drought-sensitive intestinal infectious diseases in Changsha from 2016 to 2020[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(7): 864-868. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.07.018

Citation:

WANG Xuanshu, ZHOU Huilin, LI Min, KUANG Wentao, LUO Piaoyi, ZHAO Wan, WU Qiping, HONG Huilin, ZHAO Jin, ZHA Wenting, YANG Xuewen. Screening and quantitative assessment of drought-sensitive intestinal infectious diseases in Changsha from 2016 to 2020[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(7): 864-868. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.07.018

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Screening and quantitative assessment of drought-sensitive intestinal infectious diseases in Changsha from 2016 to 2020

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.07.018

1.
Molecular Epidemiology, Hunan Normal University Key Experiment, Changsha 410013, China
2.
School of Public Health, Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen 518107, China
3.
Changsha Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Changsha 410005, China

Funds:

2020 Hunan Provincial Science and Technology Innovation Major Project 2020SK1010

Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation 2022JJ40285

Key Project of Education Department of Hunan Province 21A0023

Changsha Municipal Natural Science Foundation kq2202254

Hunan Provincial University Students′ Innovation and Entrepreneurship Training Program Project S202210542136

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHA Wenting, E-mail: 774751649@qq.com; YANG Xuewen, E-mail: 183259829@qq.com
Received Date: 2023-09-26
Rev Recd Date: 2024-04-14
Publish Date: 2024-07-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To analyze the occurrence of drought events and the epidemic characteristics of intestinal infectious diseases in Changsha from 2016 to 2020, and the impact of drought on intestinal infectious diseases was evaluated at a multiple scale, so as to provide a basis for formulating scientific prevention and control plans for the prevention of intestinal infectious diseases during drought. Methods The data of the incidence of enteric infectious diseases and meteorological data during the period from 2016 to 2020 in Changsha were collected. The Wilcoxon rank sum test was used to compare the changes in the daily incidence of intestinal infectious diseases, and to determine the sensitivity of drought related intestinal infectious diseases. The cross-correlation function was used to preliminarily analyze the optimal lag period of the incidence of intestinal infectious diseases. A distributed lag nonlinear model based on time series was established to compare and analyze the effects of different levels of drought on the incidence of intestinal infectious diseases at different lag days. es between non-drought days and drought days (Z=-2.108, P=0.035). Correlation analysis revealed that the correlation coefficients between drought events and OID reached their peak on the third day (r=0.261). The distributed lag non-linear model indicated that the daily risk of infectious diarrhea diseases (IDD) was highest on the second day (RR=1.034, 95% CI: 0.971-1.101), while the cumulative risk peaked on the 14th day (RR=1.032, 95% CI: 0.995-1.070), with a cumulative RR of 1.235 (95% CI: 1.091-1.398) from day 0 to day 14, respectively. The 2Dcontour plots demonstrated that the risk of onset and the duration of effects increased with higher drought severity. Conclusions Other infectious diarrhea is a drought sensitive intestinal infectious disease in Changsha. The risk of OID increased with the increase of drought severity, and the impact of severe drought last the longest.
- Drought,
- Intestinal infectious diseases,
- Distributed lag non-linear model,
- Hysteresis effect

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References(12)

References

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