Estimates and trends analysis of under 5 mortality rates by prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi, 2000-2030

ZHANG Xingchao; CHEN Sanqian; MA Jingjie; DENG Yuting; ZHOU Siyu; DING Jing; HU Songbo

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.11.014

Volume 28 Issue 11

Nov. 2024

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ZHANG Xingchao, CHEN Sanqian, MA Jingjie, DENG Yuting, ZHOU Siyu, DING Jing, HU Songbo. Estimates and trends analysis of under 5 mortality rates by prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi, 2000-2030[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(11): 1330-1335. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.11.014

Citation:

ZHANG Xingchao, CHEN Sanqian, MA Jingjie, DENG Yuting, ZHOU Siyu, DING Jing, HU Songbo. Estimates and trends analysis of under 5 mortality rates by prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi, 2000-2030[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(11): 1330-1335. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.11.014

Citation:

ZHANG Xingchao, CHEN Sanqian, MA Jingjie, DENG Yuting, ZHOU Siyu, DING Jing, HU Songbo. Estimates and trends analysis of under 5 mortality rates by prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi, 2000-2030[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2024, 28(11): 1330-1335. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.11.014

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Estimates and trends analysis of under 5 mortality rates by prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi, 2000-2030

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2024.11.014

ZHANG Xingchao^{1, 2},
CHEN Sanqian^{1, 2},
MA Jingjie^{1, 2},
DENG Yuting^{1, 2},
ZHOU Siyu^{1, 2},
DING Jing^{1, 2},
HU Songbo^{1, 2
,
,}

1.
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, China
2.
Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Disease Prevention and Public Health, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330006, China

Funds:

Jiangxi Provincial Natural Science Foundation 20224BAB206094

Jiangxi Provincial Health Commission Science and Technology Program 202211345

National Natural Science Foundation of China 81960618

More Information

Corresponding author: HU Songbo, E-mail: husbo0910@ncu.edu.cn
Received Date: 2024-01-08
Rev Recd Date: 2024-06-06

Available Online: 2024-12-23

Publish Date: 2024-11-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To analyze the trend and regional differences in the under 5 mortality rate (U5MR) at the level of each prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi from 2000 to 2030 U5MR over this period. Methods The U5MR of each prefecture-level city in Jiangxi was calculated based on the U5MR of each district and county in Jiangxi and the birth population from 2000 to 2012, and then based on this data, a linear mixed-effects model was constructed to estimate the U5MR of prefecture-level cities in Jiangxi from 2013 to 2022. GM(1, 1) or equal-dimensional recursive GM(1, 1) model was used to forecast U5MR in Jiangxi prefecture-level cities from 2023 to 2030. Health inequalities among children under 5 years of age in Jiangxi were measured using the concentration index and concentration curve. Results In 2000, the U5MR in Jiangxi was 48.842 ‰, with the lowest and highest prefecture-level cities being Nanchang (36.616‰) and Ganzhou (58.729‰), respectively. In 2030, the U5MR in Jiangxi might be 3.472‰, with the lowest and highest prefecture-level cities projected to be Nanchang (1.980‰) and Yichun (4.987‰), respectively. The U5MR of each prefecture-level city in Jiangxi got a rapid decline from 2000 to 2030, and the regional differences were gradually narrowing with the decline of U5MR. The concentration indices of U5MR in Jiangxi in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020 were -0.051, -0.065, -0.090, -0.096 and -0.101, respectively. Conclusions From 2000 to 2030, the overall U5MR in Jiangxi shows a decreasing trend, and the regional differences gradually narrows with the decrease of U5MR, and the inequality in the health of children under 5 years of age related to the socio-economic level shows a widening trend.
- Under 5 mortality rate,
- Linear mixed-effects model,
- GM(1, 1) model,
- Concentration index

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References(14)

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