Analysis of secular trends in incidence of skin cancer in China based on Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model

CHEN Dong-yu; YANG Xiao-yu; WANG Hong-xin; FAN Wen-long; HE Yu-qing

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.07.003

Volume 26 Issue 7

Jul. 2022

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CHEN Dong-yu, YANG Xiao-yu, WANG Hong-xin, FAN Wen-long, HE Yu-qing. Analysis of secular trends in incidence of skin cancer in China based on Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2022, 26(7): 756-765. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.07.003

Citation:

CHEN Dong-yu, YANG Xiao-yu, WANG Hong-xin, FAN Wen-long, HE Yu-qing. Analysis of secular trends in incidence of skin cancer in China based on Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2022, 26(7): 756-765. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.07.003

Citation:

CHEN Dong-yu, YANG Xiao-yu, WANG Hong-xin, FAN Wen-long, HE Yu-qing. Analysis of secular trends in incidence of skin cancer in China based on Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2022, 26(7): 756-765. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.07.003

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Analysis of secular trends in incidence of skin cancer in China based on Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2022.07.003

1.
Department of Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, School of Public Health, Institute of Medical Systems Biology, Guangdong Medical University, Dongguan 523808, China
2.
Dermatological Department, Liaobu Hospital, Dongguan 523400, China

Funds:

National Science Foundation of China 81773312

Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province 2015A030313517

Talents Recruitment Grant of "Yangfan Plan" of Guangdong Province 201433005

Social Development Science and Technology Project of Dongguan 20211800905552

More Information

Corresponding author: HE Yu-qing, E-mail: dr.hyq@hotmail.com
Received Date: 2022-01-10
Rev Recd Date: 2022-04-25

Available Online: 2022-07-19

Publish Date: 2022-07-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective To analyze the incidence trends of skin cancer in China and to estimate age, period, and cohort effects. Methods We assessed incidence trends of skin cancer in China based on the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to calculate the annual percentage change and average annual percentage change (AAPC). Age-period-cohort model was used to explore the age effect, period effect, and cohort effect of skin cancer. Results Age-standardized incidence rate of skin cancer among males and females increased significantly in China from 1990 to 2019. Joinpoint regression indicated that AAPC of malignant skin melanoma in males was 2.8% (95% CI: 2.6-3.0) and in females was 3.0% (95% CI: 2.8-3.2); AAPC of basal cell carcinoma in males was 4.2% (95% CI: 3.9-4.4) and in females was 4.0% (95% CI: 3.7-4.3); AAPC of squamous cell carcinoma in males was 3.7% (95% CI: 3.5-3.9) and in females was 2.9% (95% CI: 2.7-3.0). For both males and females, the relative risk of skin cancer incidence increased with advancing age and time period, but decreased from earlier birth cohorts to more recent birth cohorts. Conclusions The incidence of skin cancer shows an increasing trend from 1990 to 2019. People who born earlier, being older, and living in modern times have a higher risk of skin cancer incidence. Control and treatment of skin cancer should be paid attention to.
- Skin cancer,
- Incidence,
- Joinpoint regression analysis,
- Age-period-cohort model

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References(21)

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