The spatio-temporal dynamic distribution characteristic and evolvement rule of the tuberculosis epidemic in China

SUN Ke; DENG Ziyan; LI Liqing

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.02.010

Volume 29 Issue 2

Feb. 2025

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Article Navigation > CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION > 2025 > 29(2): 186-192

SUN Ke, DENG Ziyan, LI Liqing. The spatio-temporal dynamic distribution characteristic and evolvement rule of the tuberculosis epidemic in China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(2): 186-192. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.02.010

Citation:

SUN Ke, DENG Ziyan, LI Liqing. The spatio-temporal dynamic distribution characteristic and evolvement rule of the tuberculosis epidemic in China[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(2): 186-192. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.02.010

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The spatio-temporal dynamic distribution characteristic and evolvement rule of the tuberculosis epidemic in China

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.02.010

SUN Ke^{1, 2},
DENG Ziyan¹,
LI Liqing^{2
,
,}

1.
Department of Management Science and Engineering, School of Economics and Management, Jiangxi Science and Technology Normal University, Nanchang 330038, China
2.
Health Policy and Development Research Center, Jiangxi Science and Technology Normal University, Nanchang 330038, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 71964015

National Natural Science Foundation of China 72364016

National Philosophy and Social Science Major Project of China 18ZDA085

Social Science Foundation Project of Jiangxi 24YJ45D

More Information

Corresponding author: LI Liqing, E-mail: liliqing_lily@163.com
Received Date: 2024-06-26
Rev Recd Date: 2024-10-28

Available Online: 2025-03-08

Publish Date: 2025-02-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective This study aims to explore the spatio-temporal dynamic distribution and evolution of tuberculosis epidemic in China, providing a scientific basis for predicting the spatial epidemic trend and conducting control of tuberculosis. Methods Dagum Gini coefficient, barycenter-standard deviation ellipse, spatial autocorrelation and spatio-temporal transition were used to analyze the global and local spatio-temporal dynamic distribution and evolution of tuberculosis incidence in China from 2006 to 2020. Results The regional variations of the incidence of tuberculosis mainly came from the differences among east, middle and west regions. The average difference contribution rate of regional variations was 53.78%. The standard deviation ellipse was in the east and middle regions, and continuously shifted to the northwest. The distribution barycenter was mainly distributed in Shaanxi and Gansu. With the spatial correlation pattern of "high in the west and low in the east" (the mean value of Moran′s I was 0.36, P < 0.01), It was probable that the provinces and their neighbors would not transition. The proportion of type Ⅳ was 85.9%. Conclusions There are the characteristics of regional difference, spatial disequilibrium, spatial relevance and local spatial structure stability of the incidence distribution of tuberculosis in China. It is necessary to clarify the sources of regional differences, aim at key directions and regions, make inter-regional cooperation closer, and strengthen resource sharing in order to scientifically prevent and control tuberculosis.
- Tuberculosis,
- Spatio-temporal dynamic distribution characteristic,
- Evolvement rule,
- Spatial statistics

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References(16)

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