Construction of the mortality prognostic model for patients with coronary heart disease combined with chronic heart failure based on a semi-parametric smooth error accelerate failure time model

LI Jing; TIAN Jing; YANG Hong; YAN Jingjing; WANG Yajing; ZHANG Yanbo

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.04.008

Volume 29 Issue 4

Apr. 2025

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LI Jing, TIAN Jing, YANG Hong, YAN Jingjing, WANG Yajing, ZHANG Yanbo. Construction of the mortality prognostic model for patients with coronary heart disease combined with chronic heart failure based on a semi-parametric smooth error accelerate failure time model[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(4): 421-430. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.04.008

Citation:

LI Jing, TIAN Jing, YANG Hong, YAN Jingjing, WANG Yajing, ZHANG Yanbo. Construction of the mortality prognostic model for patients with coronary heart disease combined with chronic heart failure based on a semi-parametric smooth error accelerate failure time model[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(4): 421-430. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.04.008

Citation:

LI Jing, TIAN Jing, YANG Hong, YAN Jingjing, WANG Yajing, ZHANG Yanbo. Construction of the mortality prognostic model for patients with coronary heart disease combined with chronic heart failure based on a semi-parametric smooth error accelerate failure time model[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF DISEASE CONTROL & PREVENTION, 2025, 29(4): 421-430. doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.04.008

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Construction of the mortality prognostic model for patients with coronary heart disease combined with chronic heart failure based on a semi-parametric smooth error accelerate failure time model

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2025.04.008

1.
Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Shanxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Major Assessment Diseases Risk, Taiyuan 030000, China
2.
Department of Cardiology, First Affiliated Hospital, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan 030000, China

Funds:

National Natural Science Foundation of China 82173631

Project of Transformation of Scientific and Technological Achievements of Shanxi Province 202104021301063

Special Project of Science and Technology Innovation Talent Team of Shanxi Province 202204051001026

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHANG Yanbo, E-mail: sxmuzyb@126.com
Received Date: 2024-07-29
Rev Recd Date: 2024-10-28
Publish Date: 2025-04-10

Abstract

Abstract

Objective This study introduced a semi-parametric smooth error accelerated failure time (AFT) model to construct mortality prognostic models for patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) combined with chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods This study included 3 980 patients diagnosed with CHD combined with CHF from two hospitals in Shanxi Province between January 2014 and April 2019. Traditional AFT models (with 8 time distributions) and a smoothed error AFT model were applied to construct one- and three-year mortality risk models. The optimal model was determined based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC). Results The lognormal AFT model consistently demonstrated the lowest AIC value. The AIC value of the smoothed error AFT model was close to the lowest, indicating good model fit and simplicity. The variables selected by the two optimal models were consistent. For the one-year survival outcomes, elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), New York heart association (NYHA) class Ⅳ, decreased albumin levels, elevated heart rate, and decreased sodium levels [all with time ratios (TR) < 1, P < 0.05] were associated with reduced patient survival times. Conversely, treatment with lipid lowering, overweight, and decreased heart rate (all with TR>1, P < 0.05) were associated with extended survival times. For the three-year survival outcome, elevated NT-proBNP levels, older age, elevated age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index, NYHA class Ⅳ, decreased albumin levels, elevated heart rate, and prolonged QRS duration (all with TR < 1, P < 0.05) were associated with reduced survival times. In addition, lipid lowering therapy, overweight or obesity, and decreased heart rate (all with TR>1, P<0.05) were associated with extended survival times. Conclusions This study uses a semi-parametric smooth error AFT model to indentify the influencing factors of patients survival over 1 and 3 years, aiding in the identification of high-risk individuals and enabling early intervention to improve patient prognosis.
- Coronary heart disease,
- Heart failure,
- Proportional hazards assumption,
- Accelerated failure time model,
- Risk of death

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References(26)

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