无锡市气温对流感样病例和实验室确证流感病例的影响

刘娟; 施超; 张琪; 石平; 高雨蒙; 陈玉均; 王礼华; 鲍静; 沈元

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.11.018

无锡市气温对流感样病例和实验室确证流感病例的影响

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.11.018

214023 无锡, 无锡市疾病预防控制中心急传科

基金项目:

江苏省卫生计生委项目 Y2018010

无锡市卫生计生委重大项目 Z201718

无锡市科技发展基金 WX18IIAN039

无锡市“科教强卫工程”项目医学重点学科 ZDXK009

无锡市医学青年人才 QNRC008

无锡市卫生计生委项目 Q201711

详细信息

通讯作者:
沈元, E-mail: wxcdcshy@163.com

中图分类号: R181
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-06-03
- 修回日期: 2019-08-29
- 刊出日期: 2019-11-10

The effect of ambient temperature on the activity influenza like illness andlaboratory-confirmed influenza in Wuxi City

Department of Acute Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Wuxi Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuxi 214023, China

Funds:

Jiangsu Project of Preventive Medicine Y2018010

Wuxi Major Project of Health and Family Planning Z201718

Wuxi Project of Science and Technology Development WX18IIAN039

Wuxi Key Medical Disciplines ZDXK009

Wuxi Project of Young Medical Talents QNRC008

Wuxi Project of Preventive Medicine Q201711

More Information

Corresponding author: SHEN Yuan, E-mail: wxcdcshy@163.com

摘要

摘要: 目的了解无锡市气温对流感样病例和实验室确证流感病例的影响。方法收集无锡市2012年12月31日至2017年12月31日期间流感样病例监测数据、实验室病原监测数据及同期气象数据资料。利用分布滞后非线性模型研究气温与流感样病例和实验室确证流感病例的关系。结果 2012-2017年无锡市流感病例监测（influenza-like illness，ILI）总ILI%为4.96%，流感检测阳性率12.28%。无锡市气温对流感样病例的累积效应曲线呈近似"U"型，低温（10℃以下）和高温（20℃以上）均影响流感样病例的发生，低温效应滞后且效应较强，高温效应出现迅速且效应短暂。对实验室确证流感病例的累积效应呈近似"L"型，主要表现为较强的低温滞后效应，10℃以下实验室确证流感发病风险较高。结论气温影响流感样病例和实验室确证流感病例的发病，低温是危险因素且存在滞后效应。
- 气温 /
- 流感样病例 /
- 流感 /
- 分布滞后非线性模型
Abstract: Objective To evaluate the effect of ambient temperature on the activity influenza like illness (ILI) and laboratory-confirmed influenza (LAB) in Wuxi City. Methods Daily data of meteorological, ILI and detected influenza virus from 31 December 2012 to 31 December 2017 were collected. Distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to evaluate the exposure-lag-response of ILI and LAB activity to daily ambient temperature. Results During the period, the overall ILI% was 4.96% and influenza detection positive rate was 12.28% in Wuxi city. The overall cumulative association analysis suggested non-linear relationship between ambient temperature and influenza: U-shaped for ILI, while L-shaped relationship for LAB. Low temperature (<10℃) had strong and longer delay effect than hightemperature (>20℃) for ILI. The cold effect for LAB was stronger and longer delay, and the low temperature (<10℃) was risk factor for LAB. Conclusions The ambient temperature significant correlates with ILI and LAB, and low temperature might be risk factor with lag effect.
- Ambient temperature /
- Influenza like illness /
- Influenza /
- Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM)

HTML全文

图 1 2012-2017年无锡市流感样就诊比例和流感检测阳性数(分周)

A：流感样病例就诊比例(%)；B：流感检测阳性数

Figure 1. ILI (%) and number of specimens positive for influenza by subtype in 2012-2017

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 无锡市气温对流感样病例和实验室确证流感病例滞后效应三维图

A：ILI；B：LAB

Figure 2. The 3-D plot of lag effects of temperature on ILI and laboratory-confirmed influenza in Wuxi City

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图 3 无锡市气温对流感样病例和实验室确证流感病例累计效应

A：ILI；B：LAB

Figure 3. Cumulative association and temperature distribution of ILI and laboratory-confirmed influenza in Wuxi City

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图 4 无锡市特定气温不同滞后天数对流感样病例和实验室确证流感病例的效应

A: 冷效应(ILI); B: 热效应(ILI); C: 冷效应(LAB); D: 热效应(LAB)

Figure 4. Lag-response association at different temperature of ILI and laboratory-confirmed influenza in Wuxi City

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 无锡市2012-2017日流感样病例数和实验室确证流感病例与气象条件的基本情况

Table 1. The characteristics of ILIs, laboratory-confirmed influenza cases every ten thousand outpatient visits and meteorological factors during 2012-2017 in Wuxi City

变量	x±s	最小值	P₂₅	P₅₀	P₇₅	最大值
流感样病例数(ILIs)(‰)	528.25±173.37	142	414	516	624	1355
实验室确证流感数(LABs)	67.63±89.71	0	9	32	93	646
平均温度(℃)	17.21±9.08	-6.10	9.10	17.90	24.40	36.00
平均气压(hpa)	1016.27±9.13	994.5	1008.25	1016.20	1023.50	1041.00
平均相对湿度(%)	72.88±13.8	27.00	64.00	74.00	83.00	100.00
降雨量(mm)	3.94±12.71	0	0	0	1.20	211.30
平均风速(m/s)	2.23±0.89	0.40	1.60	2.20	2.70	6.00
日照时数(h)	4.97±4.17	0	0	5.50	8.70	12.90

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表 2 无锡市冷热效应、不同滞后天数对流感样病例和实验室确证流感病例的效应

Table 2. The cold effect and hot effect with different lag days on ILI and laboratory-confirmed influenza in Wuxi City

滞后天数(d)	流感样病例		实验室确证流感病例
滞后天数(d)	冷效应	热效应	冷效应	热效应
0	1.033(0.978~1.091)	1.022(0.960~1.088)	1.190(0.913~1.551)	1.039(0.718~1.503)
1	1.008(0.985~1.031)	1.031(1.005~1.057)	1.157(1.032~1.296)	1.094(0.945~1.266)
2	0.996(0.975~1.017)	1.033(1.006~1.060)	1.120(1.008~1.244)	1.130(0.967~1.321)
3	0.995(0.972~1.018)	1.030(1.000~1.060)	1.086(0.970~1.216)	1.148(0.964~1.368)
4	1.000(0.981~1.020)	1.024(0.998~1.050)	1.062(0.964~1.170)	1.150(0.989~1.337)
5	1.010(0.994~1.027)	1.016(0.995~1.038)	1.054(0.971~1.144)	1.138(1.002~1.294)
6	1.022(1.002~1.042)	1.008(0.984~1.033)	1.068(0.970~1.175)	1.116(0.963~1.293)
7	1.031(1.008~1.055)	1.003(0.974~1.032)	1.111(0.993~1.243)	1.087(0.915~1.291)
8	1.036(1.015~1.057)	1.000(0.975~1.026)	1.194(1.080~1.322)	1.053(0.903~1.228)
9	1.032(1.014~1.051)	1.003(0.981~1.025)	1.336(1.221~1.462)	1.018(0.896~1.156)
10	1.017(0.971~1.066)	1.012(0.958~1.070)	1.564(1.245~1.964)	0.985(0.706~1.373)

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