基于时间序列模型的兰州市5岁以下儿童死亡预测分析

梁卫桃; 梁芳; 井光壮; 陶生聪; 谢利傲; 胡怡萍; 李芝兰

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.11.020

基于时间序列模型的兰州市5岁以下儿童死亡预测分析

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2019.11.020

1.
730000 兰州, 兰州大学公共卫生学院儿少卫生与妇幼保健学研究所
2.
730030 兰州, 兰州市妇幼保健院
3.
730030 兰州, 兰州市卫生健康委员会

基金项目:

兰州市科技计划项目 2018-3-8

详细信息

通讯作者:
李芝兰, E-mail: lizhl@lzu.edu.cn

中图分类号: R181
计量
- 文章访问数: 425
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- PDF下载量: 36
- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-05-17
- 修回日期: 2019-08-13
- 刊出日期: 2019-11-10

Prediction and analysis of death of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou based on time series model

1.
Research Institute of Child, Adolescent and Women's Health Care, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China
2.
Maternal and Child Health Hospital of Lanzhou, Lanzhou 730030, China
3.
Health Commission of Lanzhou City, Lanzhou 730030, China

Funds:

The Science and Technology Planning Project of Lanzhou 2018-3-8

More Information

Corresponding author: LI Zhi-lan, E-mail: lizhl@lzu.edu.cn

摘要

摘要: 目的分析2010-2018年兰州市5岁以下儿童死亡情况，构建时间序列模型预测2019年兰州市5岁以下儿童死亡趋势。方法采用描述流行病学方法综合分析兰州市2010年1月-2018年12月5岁以下儿童死亡情况，利用SPSS 21.0软件构建时间序列分析模型，筛选最佳模型并预测2019年兰州市5岁以下儿童死亡情况。结果兰州市2010-2018年共报告5岁以下儿童死亡病例1 650例，男、女报告死亡例数分别为871例和774例，年均死亡率为6.23‰。近几年兰州市5岁以下儿童死亡率总体呈下降趋势；5岁以下儿童死亡以新生儿为主，占65.27%；通过不同模型比较发现简单季节性指数平滑模型为最优模型，该模型较好的拟合了兰州市2010-2018年5岁以下儿童月死亡例数，预测2019年兰州市5岁以下儿童总死亡例数为140例，与2018年的死亡例数相近。结论兰州市5岁以下儿童死亡率总体呈逐年下降趋势，简单季节性指数平滑模型可以较好的反映兰州市5岁以下儿童的死亡趋势并进行短期预测。
- 5岁以下儿童死亡 /
- 指数平滑模型 /
- 简单季节性模型 /
- 预测
Abstract: Objective To analyze the death trend of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou and establish the time series model to predict the mortality and incidence of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou in 2019. Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the mortality of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou from January 2010 to December 2018. SPSS 21.0 software was used to construct time series analysis model, selecting the best model and predict the mortality of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou in 2019. Results A total of 1 650 deaths of children under 5 years old were reported in Lanzhou from 2010 to 2018. The number of deaths reported by boys and girls was 871 and 774 respectively, with an average annual mortality rate of 6.23‰. In recent years, the overall mortality rate of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou had declined. The majority of deaths among children under 5 years old were neonates, accounting for 65.27%. Simple seasonal model was the best model by comparing different models. The model could well fit the monthly death cases of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou from 2010 to 2018. It is predicted that the total number of deaths of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou will be 140 in 2019, which is similar to the number of deaths in 2018. Conclusions The mortality rate of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou is decreasing year by year. Simple seasonal model can better reflect the mortality trend of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou and make short-term prediction.
- Death of children under 5 years of age /
- Exponential smoothing model /
- Simple seasonal model /
- Prediction

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图 1 兰州市2010-2018年5岁以下儿童年死亡率变化情况

Figure 1. Annual mortality rate of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou from 2010 to 2018

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 兰州市2010-2017年5岁以下儿童月死亡数时序图

Figure 2. The series diagram of monthly mortality amount of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou from 2010 to 2017

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 3 2019年1-2019年12月兰州市5岁以下儿童死亡趋势预测

Figure 3. Prediction of mortality trend of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou from January 2019 to December 2019

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

表 1 各模型拟合参数估计

Table 1. Estimation of fitting parameters for each model

模型类型	平稳R²	R²	RMSE	MAPE	正态化BIC	Box-Ljung Q统计量	P值
简单季节性	0.723	0.374	4.226	28.073	2.978	13.928	0.604
Winters加法	0.739	0.408	4.133	25.519	2.981	12.325	0.654
Winters乘法	0.712	0.362	4.289	26.444	3.055	12.280	0.658
SARIMA(1, 1, 1)(1, 1, 1)₁₂	0.637	0.145	5.121	32.443	3.533	12.279	0.584
SARIMA(0, 0, 0)(0, 1, 1)₁₂	0.274	0.169	4.928	32.176	3.295	12.924	0.741

下载: 导出CSV

表 2 各指数平滑模型参数设置

Table 2. Parameter settings of exponential smoothing models

模型类型	指标	估计值	s_x	t值	P值
简单季节性	Alpha (水平)	0.100	0.045	2.204	0.030
简单季节性	Delta (季节)	0.000	0.072	0.000	1.000
Winters加法	Alpha (水平)	0.005	0.011	0.480	0.632
	Delta (季节)	0.000	0.083	0.000	1.000
	Gamma (趋势)	0.000	0.086	0.000	1.000
Winters乘法	Alpha (水平)	0.001	0.010	0.057	0.954
	Delta (季节)	0.088	0.067	1.320	0.190
	Gamma (趋势)	0.001	0.641	0.002	0.999

下载: 导出CSV

表 3 兰州市2018年5岁以下儿童月死亡数实际值与预测值比较

Table 3. Comparison of actual and predicted monthly mortality of children under 5 years of age in Lanzhou in 2018

月份	实际死亡数	预测死亡数	95% CI值	相对误差(%)
1月	22	15	6~23	31.82
2月	11	15	6~23	36.36
3月	23	16	7~24	30.43
4月	13	12	3~20	7.69
5月	6	12	4~21	100.00
6月	8	11	2~19	37.50
7月	4	11	3~20	175.00
8月	7	10	2~19	42.86
9月	9	12	4~21	33.33
10月	9	19	11~28	111.11
11月	16	14	5~23	12.50
12月	11	12	3~21	9.09

下载: 导出CSV

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