新发病例:新发生还是新发现

王天雷; 何一宁; 刘丽丽; 郑英杰; 蔡倩莹

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.03.001

新发病例:新发生还是新发现

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2020.03.001

1.
200032 上海, 复旦大学公共卫生学院卫生流行病学教研室
2.
200032 上海, 复旦大学公共卫生学院教育部公共卫生安全重点实验室
3.
200032 上海, 复旦大学国家卫生和计划生育委员会卫生技术评估重点实验室

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金(81373065, 81773490);国家重点研发计划“生物安全关键技术研发”重点专项(2017YFC1200203);上海市第四轮公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划重点学科项目(15GWZK0202)

详细信息

通讯作者:
蔡倩莹, E-mail:fgh1991118@163.com

郑英杰, E-mail:yjzheng@fudan.edu.cn

中图分类号: R181.1
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- 文章访问数: 662
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- 被引次数: 0
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-09-14
- 修回日期: 2019-12-10
- 刊出日期: 2020-03-10

New cases are they incident or newly discovered

1.
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
2.
Key Lab of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
3.
Key Laboratory for Health Technology Assessment, National Commission of Health and Family Planning, Shanghai 200032, China

Funds: National Natural Science Foundation of China(81373065, 81773490); The National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1200203); The Fourth Round of Three-year Public Health Action Plan of Shanghai(15GWZK0202)

More Information

Corresponding author: ZHENG Ying-jie, E-mail:yjzheng@fudan.edu.cn; CAI Qian-ying, E-mail:fgh1991118@163.com

摘要

摘要: 新发病例是流行病学的一个基本概念, 通常用作人群疾病发生频率指标的分子计数。然而, 关于新发病例的确切定义仍不清楚。基于疾病的自然史, 结合事件-状态概念, 本文重新定义病例相关概念, 并将其与传统概念进行了比较。研究发现, 传统流行病学研究中所谓的新发病例实际上为首次发现病例, 包括新发现病例和可被识别的新发生病例(疾病启动)。现实世界中, 新发生病例通常很难测量, 并且与疾病自然史和冰山现象一起, 可能会影响疾病频率测量和因果推断的准确性。正确理解病例相关概念的含义及其之间的差异有助于合理地解释流行病学的研究结果。
- 新发病例 /
- 新发生病例 /
- 新发现病例 /
- 流行病学 /
- 疾病频率
Abstract: New case is a basic concept in epidemiology and often serves as the numerator for the indexes of the frequency of disease in a population. However, the exact definition of new case is still unclear. Based on the natural history of disease combined with the concept of event-state, this article redefines case-related concepts and compares them with traditional concepts. The study found that the so-called new cases in traditional epidemiological studies are actually the cases firstly discovered, including newly discovered cases and identifiable newly incident cases(disease initiation). In the real world, new cases are often difficult to measure, and together with the continuous process of disease development and iceberg phenomenon, those may affect the accuracy of disease frequency measurement and causal inference. A correct understanding of the meaning of case-related concepts, the meanings they reflect, and the differences between them help to rationally interpret the results of epidemiological research.
- New cases /
- Newly discovered cases /
- Incident cases /
- Epidemiology /
- Disease frequency

HTML全文

图 1 个体疾病的发生发展示意图

注:不同色块的长方形代表其内文字所示的期限起止点, 虚线方框代表状态持续时间可变动, 虚线竖箭头代表文字所发生的时间点, 实线横箭头代表其头尾连接两个长方形所反应的疾病状态转换; 结局期之下的①疾病终止:表示发生死亡/恢复; ②疾病持续:控制或进展, 其下方框与左侧同色长方形内疾病期的相同含义, 意味着该疾病期的持续; 时间轴:自左向右。其中, A:易感期的起点, B:疾病期/不可识别期/临床前期的起点, C:可识别期的起点, D:临床期的起点, E:结局发生的起点, X:充分病因的第一个因素。

Figure 1. Natural history of a disease in an individual

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

图 2 病例相关概念:新定义与旧定义的对比

Figure 2. Case-related concepts: the new versus the old

下载: 全尺寸图片幻灯片

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