2014-2018年福建省水痘流行特征分析及趋势预测

齐孝旗; 祝寒松; 陈武; 蔡少健; 谢忠杭; 吴生根; 欧剑鸣

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.01.009

2014-2018年福建省水痘流行特征分析及趋势预测

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.01.009

齐孝旗^1, ,,
祝寒松¹,
陈武¹,
蔡少健¹,
谢忠杭¹,
吴生根¹,
欧剑鸣^{1, 2}

1.
350001 福州，福建省人兽共患病研究重点实验室/福建省疾病预防控制中心应急科
2.
350001 福州，福建医科大学公共卫生学院专业教学实习基地应急科

详细信息

通讯作者:
齐孝旗，E-mail：490447856@qq.com

中图分类号: R511.5
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2019-12-13
- 修回日期: 2020-05-06
- 刊出日期: 2021-01-10

Epidemiological characteristics and trend prediction of varicella in Fujian Province from 2014 to 2018

1.
Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Zoonosis Research/ Department of Communicable Disease Surveillance and Emergency Response, Fujian Province Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Fuzhou 350001, China
2.
Department of Communicable Disease Emergency Response, Professional Teaching Practice Base for School of Public Health, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou 350001, China

More Information

Corresponding author: QI Xiao-qi, E-mail: 490447856@qq.com

摘要

摘要: 目的了解2014-2018年福建省水痘疫情流行情况并进行发病预测，为调整水痘防控策略提供依据。方法收集福建省2014-2018年中国传染病报告信息管理系统的水痘病例资料及突发公共卫生事件管理信息系统的水痘突发事件报告资料，进行统计描述和分析。结果福建省2014-2018年累计报告58 934例水痘病例，年均发病率30.65/10万，2014-2018年水痘发病率呈上升趋势(F=20.055, P=0.021)。水痘发病季节性明显，呈“双峰分布”，5-6月及11月至次年1月为发病高峰；发病人群主要集中在＜15岁儿童，占总病例数的66.28%；男性水痘年均发病率(32.68/10万)高于女性(28.57/10万)(χ²=52.895, P < 0.001)；职业以学生为主，占45.75%。同期共报告水痘突发公共卫生事件183起，波及208 809人，平均罹患率为2.08%，事件发生地主要在小学(71.04%)。通过自回归移动平均(autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA)模型预测出2019年11月及12月的病例数分别为3 834例、5 369例，均超过2018年发病人数。结论福建省水痘疫情呈上升态势。应加强水痘疫情的防控工作，尤其应在高发季节加强重点人群(＜15岁儿童)和重点机构(小学)的防控措施。
- 水痘 /
- 流行特征 /
- 暴发 /
- 预测
Abstract: Objective To analyse the epidemiological characteristics and to predict the cases of varicella in Fujian Province in 2014-2018. This would provide a scientific evidence for varicella prevention and control strategies. Methods Varicella case data was collected from China Infectious Disease Report Information Management System. Varicella emergency report data was collected from Public Health Emergency Management Information System. ArcGIS 10.2 and R 3.4.3 software were used to perform statistical description and analysis. Results A total of 58 934 cases of varicella were reported in Fujian Province from 2014 to 2018. The average annual incidence was 30.65/100 000, with a rising trend from 2014 to 2018(F=20.055, P=0.021); The incidence of varicella was significantly seasonal with a bimodal distribution. The incidence peak was from May to June and from November to January in the following year. The majority of the patients were children under 15 years old, accounting for 66.28% of the total cases. The average annual incidence of varicella in males (32.68/100 000) was higher than that in females (28.57/100 000)(χ²=52.895, P < 0.001); The main occupation of patients were students, accounting for 45.75%. 183 public health emergencies of varicella involving 208 809 people were reported during the same period. The average attack rate was 2.08% and mainly occurred in primary schools, accounting for 71.04%. According to the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, the number of varicella cases in November and December in 2019 were predicted to be 3 834 and 5 369, respectively, both of them exceeded the number of cases in the same month in 2018. Conclusions The varicella epidemic situation is on the rise in Fujian Province. Therefore, the prevention and control strategies should be strengthened, especially for the key groups (children under 15 years old) and in the key institutions (primary schools) during the peak incidence seasons.
- Varicella /
- Epidemiological characteristics /
- Outbreak /
- Prediction

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图 1 2014-2018年福建省水痘病例发病时间分布

Figure 1. Time distribution of varicella cases in Fujian Province from 2014 to 2018

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图 2 2014-2018年福建省各县(市/区)水痘年均发病率(/10万)

Figure 2. Average annual incidence of varicella in counties (cities/districts) of Fujian Province from 2014 to 2018 (/100 000)

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图 3 2014-2018年福建省水痘年均发病率年龄分布(/10万)

Figure 3. Average annual incidence of varicella in Fujian Province from 2014 to 2018 (/100 000)

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图 4 福建省水痘发病数和预测值

Figure 4. Incidence and predictive value of varicella in Fujian Province

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表 1 2014-2018年福建省各地区水痘突发事件报告情况[n(%)]^a

Table 1. Report on varicella emergencies in various regions of Fujian Province from 2014 to 2018[n(%)]^a

地区	2014年	2015年	2016年	2017年	2018年	合计
厦门	6(35.29)	7(25.00)	7(31.82)	19(32.76)	16(27.59)	55(30.05)
漳州	4(23.53)	7(25.00)	3(13.64)	15(25.86)	5(8.62)	34(18.58)
三明	4(23.53)	3(10.71)	2(9.09)	10(17.24)	9(15.52)	28(15.30)
龙岩	2(11.76)	5(17.86)	3(13.64)	6(10.34)	8(13.79)	24(13.11)
福州	0(0.00)	1(3.57)	0(0.00)	3(5.17)	11(18.97)	15(8.20)
宁德	1(5.88)	4(14.29)	1(4.55)	2(3.45)	6(10.34)	14(7.65)
南平	0(0.00)	0(0.00)	3(13.64)	1(1.72)	1(1.72)	5(2.73)
莆田	0(0.00)	1(3.57)	2(9.09)	1(1.72)	0(0.00)	4(2.19)
泉州	0(0.00)	0(0.00)	0(0.00)	1(1.72)	2(3.45)	3(1.64)
平潭	0(0.00)	0(0.00)	1(4.55)	0(0.00)	0(0.00)	1(0.55)
合计	17(100.00)	28(100.00)	22(100.00)	58(100.00)	58(100.00)	183(100.00)
注：^a括号外为水痘突发事件报告数，括号内为构成比。

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表 2 2014-2018年福建省水痘突发事件报告发生地分布情况[n(%)]

Table 2. Report on the distribution of varicella emergencies in Fujian Province from 2014 to 2018 [n(%)]

事件发生地	农村	城市	合计
小学	60(32.79)	70(38.25)	130(71.04)
幼儿园	16(8.74)	7(3.83)	23(12.57)
其他学校	-^a	-^a	30(16.39)
合计	-^a	-^a	183(100.00)
注：^a调查时其他学校的农村和城市分类数据未统计。

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表 3 福建省2019年1-12月份水痘发病数预测情况

Table 3. Prediction of the incidence of varicella in Fujian Province from January to December 2019

月份(月)	预测值(例)	实际值(例)	相对误差(%)	(80% CI)值	(95% CI)值
1	2 733	2 581	-5.56	(2 171，3 441)	(1 922，3 887)
2	1 414	1 137	-19.59	(1 051，1 904)	(898，2 228)
3	1 765	1 057	-40.11	(1 292，2 411)	(1 096，2 844)
4	1 967	1 295	-34.16	(1 430，2 705)	(1 208，3 202)
5	2 744	1 666	-39.29	(1 975，3 811)	(1 660，4 535)
6	2 655	1 932	-27.23	(1 885，3 740)	(1 572，4 484)
7	2 073	-	-	(1 451，2 963)	(1 201，3 580)
8	1 400	-	-	(967，2 027)	(795，2 465)
9	1 333	-	-	(910，1 952)	(744，2 389)
10	2 086	-	-	(1 409，3 090)	(1 144，3 804)
11	3 834	-	-	(2 560，5 743)	(2 067，7 111)
12	5 369	-	-	(3 546，8 130)	(2 847，10 126)

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