深圳市2008―2018年脑卒中发病情况及其变化趋势

王一茸; 蔡伟聪; 彭绩; 雷林

doi:10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.10.021

深圳市2008―2018年脑卒中发病情况及其变化趋势

doi: 10.16462/j.cnki.zhjbkz.2021.10.021

518020 深圳，深圳市慢性病防治中心肿瘤防控科

基金项目:

深圳市医疗卫生三名工程 SZSM201911015

详细信息

通讯作者:
雷林，E-mail：lin.leilana@gmail.com

中图分类号: R181.2;R743.3
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2020-10-12
- 修回日期: 2021-01-26
- 网络出版日期: 2021-11-17
- 刊出日期: 2021-10-10

Analysis of incidence and trend of stroke in Shenzhen from 2008 to 2018

Shenzhen Center for Chronic Disease Control, Department of Cancer Prevention and Control, Shenzhen 518020, China

Funds:

Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen SZSM201911015

More Information

Corresponding author: LEI lin, E-mail: lin.leilana@gmail.com

摘要

摘要: 目的分析2008―2018年深圳市居民脑卒中发病情况和变化趋势，为制定和评估深圳市脑卒中防治策略提供依据。方法利用深圳市居民脑卒中监测数据资料，采用趋势检验和年度变化百分比(annual percent change, APC)分析脑卒中时间变化趋势。结果 2008―2018年深圳市居民脑卒中年均粗发病率为215.48/10万，APC为1.12%，变化无统计学意义(t=2.07, P=0.07)。男性脑卒中发病率为237.89/10万，高于女性的191.30/10万。0~＜45岁年龄组发病率处于较低水平，≥45岁时发病率开始迅速上升。发病率随着年龄的增加而上升，≥75岁年龄组发病率呈现上升趋势，APC为2.75%，差异有统计学意义(t=4.65, P < 0.001)。结论 2008―2018年深圳市居民脑卒中发病率较为稳定，但高年龄组发病率呈现上升趋势，应进一步关注老年人脑卒中发病情况。
- 脑卒中 /
- 发病率 /
- 趋势分析
Abstract: Objective To analyze the incidence and trend of stroke in Shenzhen from 2008 to 2018, in order to provide evidence for formulating and evaluating prevention strategy of stroke in Shenzhen. Methods According to stroke monitoring data, the temporal trends of stroke in Shenzhen was analyzed by trend test and annual percentage change (APC). Results From 2008 to 2018, the incidence rate of stroke was 215.48/100 000, with 1.12% APC, and there was no statistical difference in incidence rate of stroke in each year(t=2.07, P=0.07). The incidence rate of male (237.89/100 000) was higher than that of female (191.30/100 000). The incidence rate of age 0-45 group was low, but it increased dramatically after age of 45. The incidence rate rose with age and especially for 75 age groups, with 2.75% APC, which has statistical significance(t=4.65, P < 0.001). Conclusion In 2008 to 2018, the incidence of stroke in Shenzhen was relatively stuble, but the incidence of the high age group showed a significant increase, so it is necessary to pay more attention to the elderly.
- Stroke /
- Incidence /
- Trend analysis

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图 1 2008―2018年深圳市脑卒中年龄别发病率

Figure 1. The incidence rate of stroke by age in Shenzhen from 2008 to 2018

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表 1 2008―2018年深圳市脑卒中发病情况(/10万)

Table 1. The incidence of stroke in Shenzhen from 2008 to 2018 (/100 000)

年份	总体						男性						女性
年份	新发病例数(例)	粗率	中标率	世标率	缺血性脑卒中发病率	出血性脑卒中发病率	新发病例数(例)	粗率	中标率	世标率	缺血性脑卒中发病率	出血性脑卒中发病率	新发病例数(例)	粗率	中标率	世标率	缺血性脑卒中发病率	出血性脑卒中发病率
2008	4 653	211.28	402.15	354.28	172.23	38.55	2 649	226.22	457.94	403.20	180.79	44.83	2 004	194.33	348.24	307.79	162.52	31.42
2009	5 062	215.62	411.62	362.80	190.58	38.87	2 823	226.20	454.09	399.05	185.02	40.79	2 239	203.62	368.60	326.58	171.70	31.56
2010	4 810	195.34	372.51	327.80	16.33	68.00	2 740	209.49	423.38	372.32	172.79	36.47	2 070	179.31	322.70	284.81	152.45	26.68
2011	4 916	189.47	336.41	296.20	159.64	29.52	2 830	205.95	390.15	342.38	90.80	33.99	2 086	170.91	283.95	251.48	68.83	24.50
2012	5 972	215.00	385.87	340.16	182.24	32.33	3 372	230.36	444.20	391.36	230.36	39.69	2 600	197.90	332.36	293.83	173.31	24.13
2013	6 507	217.59	392.22	347.16	184.82	32.14	3 755	239.87	467.98	414.03	200.14	38.78	2 752	193.12	324.23	288.08	168.00	24.84
2014	7 027	218.68	392.55	348.36	186.69	31.31	4 069	243.59	473.30	419.47	203.41	39.03	2 958	191.71	319.72	285.01	168.58	22.94
2015	7 377	214.70	387.43	344.57	186.96	27.01	4 219	236.48	462.12	411.26	236.48	33.91	3 158	191.17	321.49	286.66	170.77	19.55
2016	8 290	224.20	421.34	373.79	190.8	32.05	4 760	251.94	479.36	423.27	209.43	40.81	3 530	195.22	362.95	324.45	171.33	22.90
2017	9 307	227.21	427.24	379.29	196.21	30.27	5 330	256.90	485.61	429.91	218.34	37.74	3 977	196.74	368.25	328.66	173.49	22.61
2018	9 915	222.95	421.60	373.89	189.58	31.66	5 759	257.70	486.03	318.07	214.83	40.72	4 156	187.86	356.74	318.07	164.08	22.51
合计	73 836	215.48	397.77	352.11	182.95	31.76	42 306	237.89	460.29	406.78	198.21	38.73	31 530	191.30	337.82	300.39	166.48	24.24
APC(%)		1.12	0.84	0.96	8.76	-4.72		1.87	1.21	1.31	3.96	-0.92		0.28	0.43	0.57	2.33	-4.11
t值		2.07	1.13	1.28	0.99	-1.92		3.46	1.87	1.99	1.34	-0.97		0.47	0.46	0.60	0.71	-4.70
P值		0.07	0.29	0.24	0.35	0.09		0.01	0.10	0.08	0.22	0.36		0.65	0.66	0.57	0.50	0.00

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表 2 2008―2018年深圳市脑卒中年龄别发病率变化趋势(/10万)

Table 2. The trend of stroke incidence by age in Shenzhen from 2008 to 2018 (/100 000)

年份	年龄组(岁)
年份	＜30	30~＜45	45~＜60	60~＜75	≥75
2008	6.62	45.13	316.43	1 759.69	4 115.04
2009	6.78	46.06	302.21	1 745.45	4 556.79
2010	5.92	38.00	287.08	1 487.87	4 369.39
2011	3.34	33.78	272.13	1 344.45	3 863.21
2012	4.28	37.52	281.27	1 603.62	4 445.92
2013	4.89	33.37	286.96	1 533.65	4 831.97
2014	6.64	34.67	290.42	1 456.77	5 020.95
2015	5.05	33.31	278.85	1 431.75	5 044.56
2016	6.21	30.57	294.76	1 593.78	5 291.03
2017	5.97	34.30	321.26	1 588.62	5 352.20
2018	6.31	32.95	321.04	1 643.82	5 136.09
APC (%)	0.60	-3.14	0.43	-0.44	2.75
t值	0.27	-4.15	0.77	-0.54	4.65
P值	0.79	＜0.01	0.46	0.61	＜0.01

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